(Reuters) – India’s retail inflation in November eased to 5.48% as soaring vegetable prices moderated during the month due to an improvement in supply, according to government data released on Thursday.
A Reuters poll had projected retail inflation at 5.53%.
COMMENTS
DIPANWITA MAZUMDAR, ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA, MUMBAI
“Headline CPI got the desired comfort from a favourable statistical base and moderation in food inflation.”
“What comes as a further respite is that the outlook seems more benign with visible correction in tomato and onion prices and comfortable supply.”
“The next few inflation prints will be crucial in determining where the needle of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy compass would rest.”
GARIMA KAPOOR, ECONOMIST, INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES, ELARA SECURITIES, MUMBAI
“The deflationary trend in food prices, in particular vegetables, along with the lagged impact of softening demand amid food price deflation should aid headline CPI to fall below 5% in December.”
“We see FY25 estimated CPI at 4.8% average and continue to expect the (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee to cut policy repo rate by 25 bps in February 2025 and (make) a cumulative of 75 bps cut in the current rate cut cycle.”
GAURA SEN GUPTA, INDIA ECONOMIST, IDFC FIRST BANK, MUMBAI
“We continue to expect 25 bps cut in February.
Growth conditions continue to weaken even in the third quarter, indicating (the) need to ease monetary policy.”
RADHIKA RAO, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DBS BANK, SINGAPORE
“Inflation has receded along expectations, as signaled by tempering food costs.”
“Core inflation likely ticked up slightly, but remains at non-threatening levels.”
“Inflation’s conducive trend coupled with softer growth prints make the case for the RBI to consider easing rates in the first quarter.”
ADITI NAYAR, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ICRA, GURUGRAM
“If the headline CPI inflation eases to 5% or lower by December 2024, the likelihood of a rate cut by the MPC in its February 2025 meeting would be very high.”
“We maintain our baseline expectation of two rate cuts of 25 bps each in the awaited rate-cutting cycle.”
SAKSHI GUPTA, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM
“We expect inflation to gradually inch lower towards 4.5% by the January-March quarter.”
“While the moderation in inflation does increase the chances of a rate cut by the RBI in the February policy, however, any upsets on food inflation due to a warmer winter or an increase in pressure on the rupee, could still nudge the central bank to postpone the rate cut to the April policy.”
(Reporting by Siddhi Nayak, Nishit Navin, Kashish Tandon, Aleef Jahan C S and Hritam Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Compiled by Dhanya Skariachan; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
