By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. import prices barely rose in November as increases in the costs of food and fuels were partially offset by decreases elsewhere thanks to a strong dollar, suggesting that inflation pressures could subside in the months ahead.
The report from the Labor Department on Friday, which also showed a sharp drop in imported air passenger fares last month, was supportive of economists’ expectations for tamer gains in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for its 2% inflation target.
“Recent dollar strength should be a headwind for import price growth in coming months, but trade policy remains a wild card,” said Michael Hanson, an economist at JPMorgan.
Import prices edged up 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% rise in October, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, would decline 0.2% after a previously reported 0.3% gain in October.
The BLS has previously noted that while paid tariffs are not included in import prices, they could have an impact on price trends before they are imposed and once in place.
Tariffs are a tax that raises the cost for importers and creates shortages. Expectations of higher tariffs could lead to stockpiling of goods, a short-run demand increase that the BLS explained “would tend to push prices upward, even before the tariff takes effect, regardless of the tariff amount itself.”
President-elect Donald Trump has promised higher tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, the main U.S. trade partners.
In the 12 months through November, import prices increased 1.3% after advancing 0.6% in October. Imported air passenger fares fell 4.8% on a monthly basis after rising 3.9% in October.
The improvement in inflation has stalled in recent months, but there has been no noticeable deterioration. The government reported on Wednesday that consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in November, while a measure of underlying price pressures continued to run firmer over the past four months.
Though producer prices notched their largest monthly gain in five months, services inflation slowed in November.
With the three inflation reports in hand, economists’ estimates for the PCE price index for November, excluding the volatile food and energy components, converged around a 0.1% gain.
The so-called core PCE inflation, one of the measures monitored by the Fed for monetary policy, rose 0.3% for a second straight month in October. It was forecast to increase 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in November, matching October’s advance.
Stocks on Wall Street were trading mostly lower. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.
STRONG DOLLAR EFFECT
Financial markets have almost fully priced in a quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut by the Fed next week. The scope for rate cuts next year could be limited by the incoming Trump administration’s tariff plans as well as mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
The U.S. central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate has been reduced to the 4.50%-4.75% range since it launched its policy easing cycle in September. The policy rate was hiked by 5.25 percentage points between March 2022 and July 2023.
Imported fuel prices rebounded 1.0% last month after declining 0.8% in October. Prices for petroleum and its products rose a moderate 0.4%. Imported natural gas prices shot up 47.4%.
Food prices increased 1.3% after declining for three consecutive months. They were boosted by a 13.1% jump in the cost of vegetables. The surge suggested that food prices, which have risen at both the consumer and producer levels, could continue to march higher in the months ahead.
Excluding fuels and food, import prices were unchanged after rising 0.3% in October. The so-called core import prices were restrained by the dollar’s strength against the currencies of the main U.S. trade partners.
The trade-weighted dollar, adjusted for inflation, rose 2.1% between October and November. The dollar has rallied on expectations of fewer rate cuts next year. Core import prices increased 2.0% on a year-on-year basis in November.
Prices of imported capital goods dipped 0.1% as did those of automotive vehicles, parts and engines. Imported consumer goods, excluding automotives, ticked up 0.1% for the third straight month in November.
The cost of goods imported from China slipped 0.1% for the second consecutive month. That has not increased on a monthly basis since October 2022. Prices of Chinese imports dropped 0.9% on a year-on-year basis in November. Prices of goods imported from Canada fell 0.4%, but the cost of Mexican imports increased 0.3%.
“November data on inflation should provide comfort that the disinflation process remains in place,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. “With the understanding that potential changes to trade policies could shift dynamics in tradables prices, we do not see goods prices as fundamentally firming at present.”
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao)
