By Antonella Cinelli
ROME (Reuters) – Italian industrial output was much weaker than expected in December, falling 3.1% from the month before and pointing to deepening problems for the country’s stagnant economy, data showed on Wednesday.
December marked by far the biggest monthly fall in output since January 2022, national statistics bureau ISTAT said. The data was below all forecasts in a Reuters survey of 16 analysts which pointed to a marginal 0.2% decline.
Gross domestic product in the euro zone’s third-largest economy stagnated for a second straight quarter at the end of 2024, ISTAT reported last month.
“Prospects for a swift and sustained recovery appear bleak,” ING senior economist Paolo Pizzoli after the latest industrial production figures.
The outlook is clouded by geopolitical tensions, the prospect of U.S. trade tariffs and the difficulties faced by Rome in deploying its EU COVID-19 pandemic recovery funds.
On a work-day adjusted year-on-year basis, industrial output was down in December by 7.1%, ISTAT said. That marked the steepest of 23 consecutive annual declines, and followed a 1.6% drop in November.
December’s numbers close out another weak year for Italian industry, with work-day adjusted output down 3.5% over the 12-month period, following a 2.0% decrease in 2023.
Italian economic think tank Prometeia said the country’s industrial sector also faced “an uphill struggle” this year, weighed down by extreme weakness in car making and textiles.
Over the whole of 2024, the Italian economy grew by 0.5% from the year earlier, when adjusted for the number of working days, ISTAT’s flash estimate showed on January 30.
The statistics bureau will release non-workday-adjusted 2024 growth data on March 3.
That may be stronger than the flash estimate, reflecting four more working days in 2024 than the year earlier, but it is still expected to come in well below the government’s 1% forecast.
This year most economists forecast growth of around 0.7%, again significantly weaker than Rome’s official 1.2% target.
(Reporting by Antonella Cinelli, graphic by Stefano Bernabei, editing by Gavin Jones)
