By Nigel Hunt
LONDON (Reuters) – Arabica coffee futures are expected to fall by around 30% by the end of 2025, with recent record high prices expected to curb demand and early signs pointing to a bumper Brazilian crop next year, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
The poll had a median forecast for arabica prices at the end of 2025 of $2.95 per pound, a drop of 30% from Wednesday’s close and a loss of 6% from end-2024.
“Demand will stagnate in response to very high prices,” one participant in the poll of 12 traders and analysts said.
The rise in prices has been fuelled by the prospect of a smaller arabica crop in top grower Brazil in the upcoming 2025/26 season.
The median forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop in the poll was 40.55 million bags, down from the prior season’s 43.4 million.
Several participants, however, pointed to the potential for a larger crop in the 2026/27 season.
“If we can get through the frost/rain period without damage, there should be a massive 26/27 Brazil crop on the horizon,” another participant said.
Arabica coffee prices were among the strongest performing commodity markets in 2024, rising by about 70%, and have continued to climb this year hitting a record high of $4.2995 on February 11.
Brazil’s total crop was seen falling to 64.6 million bags from 66.4 million in 2024/25 with a rise in robusta (conillon) production partly offseting the fall in arabica output.
Prices for robusta coffee were seen ending 2025 at $4,200 a metric ton, down 28% from Wednesday’s close, to post an annual loss of 14%.
Brazil’s robusta crop was seen rising in 2025/26 to 24.5 million bags, up from 21 million in the previous season.
A larger harvest was also forecast in top robusta producer Vietnam of 29 million bags, up from 28 million in 2024/25.
“If weather conditions remain favourable (in Vietnam), we expect production to recover given the investments made by farmers in recent years,” one participant said.
(Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by Jan Harvey)
