AFP

US central bankers last month flagged the concern that sky-high inflation could become a permanent fixture, and stressed their readiness to continue raising interest rates to tamp down price pressures, according to the minutes of the latest policy meeting released Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve last month implemented the most aggressive interest rate increase in nearly 30 years, as policymakers cited worries that price pressures had shown no signs of easing, according to the record of the June 14-15 meeting.

The members of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee raised the benchmark borrowing rate three-quarters of a point and at the time said another similar increase was possible later this month, after data showing consumer prices surged 8.6 percent in the 12 months to May — the highest in more than four decades.

Officials were concerned “that inflation pressures had yet to show signs of abating,” further evidence “inflation would be more persistent than they had previously anticipated,” the minutes said.

Many policymakers said there was “a significant risk… that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee.”

But the minutes made clear the officials don’t plan to let up in their efforts to cool the economy, at least through the end of the year.

With the high prices for food, energy, housing and other goods squeezing American families, Fed officials stressed the moves were “essential in restoring price stability.”

Still, there remains a risk inflation will continue to accelerate amid the uncertainty surrounding how long the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Covid-19 lockdowns in China will continue to exacerbate price pressures, the report said.

– Looking backwards –

Officials acknowledged they might have to be even more aggressive in tightening monetary policy “if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.”

However, economists note that more recent data and surveys show price pressures easing and housing demand slowing, while even job openings in the red-hot US labor market dipped.

“Not sure people realize how dramatically the runaway inflation narrative has now collapsed,” Nobel-prize winning economist and columnist Paul Krugman said on Twitter.

He said retail gasoline prices have not reflected the cooling at the wholesale level. 

Oil prices have retreated for the past two days, with the US benchmark WTI below $100 for the first time in about two months.

But, he tweeted, “a lot of economic commentators have been waiting years for the chance to posture sternly against runaway inflation, and really, really won’t want to back down.”

Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics also noted that while the minutes point to an economy still expanding, that “growth picture is way out of date” as recent figures show second-quarter GDP likely fell again.

– ‘Upside’ risks –

The Fed’s super-sized rate hike last month came with the central bank under intense pressure to curb soaring prices that have left millions of Americans struggling to make ends meet and sent President Joe Biden’s approval ratings plunging.

Following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was “essential” to lower inflation, but stressed that the goal is to achieve that without derailing the US economy.

The minutes confirmed the feeling another hike of 50 or 75 basis points is likely this month, but Shepherdson noted that officials said they would be “nimble” in the face of new data.

“In other words, 75bp is not a done deal. We very much hope that the sobering data since the June meeting will push members towards the smaller hike,” he said.

US central bankers began raising interest rates off zero in March as buoyant demand from American consumers for homes, cars and other goods clashed with transportation and supply chain snarls.

Inflation got dramatically worse after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, and US gasoline prices topped $5.00 a gallon for the first time, though they have since retreated slightly.

The Fed minutes said inflation risks remain “skewed to the upside.”

US central bankers last month flagged the concern that sky-high inflation could become persistent and reiterated their willingness to continue raising interest rates to tamp down price pressures, according to the minutes of the latest policy meeting released Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve last month implemented the most aggressive interest rate increase in nearly 30 years, as policymakers cited worries that price pressures had shown no signs of easing, according to the record of the June 14-15 meeting.

The members of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee raised the benchmark borrowing rate three-quarters of a point and at the time said another similar increase was possible later this month, after data showing consumer prices surged 8.5 percent in the 12 months to May — the highest in more than four decades.

Officials were concerned “that inflation pressures had yet to show signs of abating,” which a number saw as further evidence “inflation would be more persistent than they had previously anticipated,” the minutes said.

And many policymakers said there was “a significant risk… that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee.”

But the minutes made clear the officials are resolved to continue efforts to cool the economy at least through the end of the year.

With the high prices for food, energy, housing and other goods squeezing American families, Fed officials “stressed that appropriate firming of monetary policy, together with clear and effective communications, would be essential in restoring price stability.”

Still, there remains a risk inflation will continue to accelerate amid the uncertainty surrounding how long the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Covid-19 lockdowns in China will continue, as those factors have exacerbated price pressures, the report said.

Officials acknowledged they might have to be even more aggressive in tightening monetary policy “if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.”

– Upside risks –

The super-sized 0.75-percentage-point hike last month came with the Fed under intense pressure to curb soaring prices that have left millions of Americans struggling to make ends meet and sent President Joe Biden’s approval ratings plunging.

Following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was “essential” to lower inflation, but stressed that the goal is to achieve that without derailing the US economy.

However, he acknowledged there is always a risk of going too far, and concerns about a US and global recession have sent global stock markets on a downward slide in recent weeks.

Biden has endorsed the Fed’s effort and is hoping for success as his Democrats face the possibility of losing control of Congress in key midterm elections in November.

US central bankers began raising interest rates off zero in March as buoyant demand from American consumers for homes, cars and other goods clashed with transportation and supply chain snarls in parts of the world where Covid-19 remains a challenge.

That fueled inflation, which got dramatically worse after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and Western nations imposed steep sanctions on Moscow, sending food and fuel prices up at a blistering rate.

That caused US gasoline prices to top $5.00 a gallon, but they have since retreated slightly.

But the Fed minutes said inflation risks remain “skewed to the upside.”

Officials said that later this year they will be “well positioned” to gauge the extent to which further rate hikes will be needed.

Suspected Boko Haram jihadists using guns and explosives blasted their way into a prison near Nigeria’s capital, freeing dozens of their jailed comrades and hundreds of other inmates, the government said on Wednesday.

Tuesday night’s brazen attack on the outskirts of Abuja came just hours after an ambush on a presidential security convoy in the northwest, in a startling illustration of Nigeria’s security challenges.

Residents reported a series of loud explosions and gunfire late Tuesday around the Kuje medium-security prison just 40 kilometres (25 miles) away from the capital and the Aso Rock presidential villa.

President Muhammadu Buhari on Wednesday briefly visited the prison, where the burnt-out wreckage of a bus and cars marked the scene of the attack, and yellow police tape was stretched across a destroyed section of the prison perimeter.

“I am disappointed with the intelligence system. How can terrorists organize, have weapons, attack a security installation and get away with it?” Buhari said in a statement after the visit.

The Nigerian leader, who has been under pressure over the country’s security challenges, was due to leave on an official trip to Senegal soon after the prison visit.

One security official was killed when the gunmen breached the jail using high-grade explosives.

“We understand they are Boko Haram, they came specifically for their co-conspirators,” senior interior ministry official Shuaibu Belgore told reporters on a visit to the prison.

Close to 600 inmates had been recaptured by Wednesday evening while less than 100 were still on the run, Nigeria’s correctional services spokesman Abubakar Umar said.

Boko Haram is one of the jihadist groups involved in Nigeria’s grinding 13-year conflict in the country’s northeast.

Nigerian officials sometimes also use “Boko Haram” as a general phrase to refer to jihadists or other armed groups.

– ‘All escaped’ –

Defence Minister Bashir Magashi told reporters that Boko Haram militants had “mostly likely” carried out the attack and that all 64 jailed jihadists in the prison had escaped.

“None of them are inside the prison, they have all escaped,” he said.

Commanders of another jihadist group Ansaru, including the group’s chief Khalid Barnawi, had also been kept in Kuje prison since their conviction in 2017.

“We heard shooting on my street. We thought it was armed robbers,” one local Kuje resident said. “The first explosion came after the shooting. Then a second one sounded and then a third.”

Some prisoners surrendered while others were recaptured with military roadblocks set up around the penitentiary, officials said.

Security forces sent back around 19 recaptured inmates in a black van on Wednesday morning, an AFP correspondent at the site said.

Former top police commander Abba Kyari, who was being held in Kuje awaiting trial in a high-profile drug smuggling case, was still in custody, Umar said. 

– ‘Ambush positions’ –

Nigeria’s security forces are battling Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) jihadists in the country’s northeast, where the conflict has killed 40,000 people and displaced 2.2 million more.

The overstretched military is also fighting heavily armed criminal gangs known locally as bandits who terrorise communities in northwest and central states with raids and mass kidnappings for ransom.

In the country’s southeast, troops are dealing with separatist militias who demand an independent territory for the local ethnic Igbo people.

The Kuje prison raid took place soon after gunmen also ambushed an advance presidential security detail preparing for Buhari’s visit to his home state of northwestern Katsina.

Buhari was not in the convoy, but two officials were slightly wounded in the attack. It was not clear who was responsible.

“The attackers opened fire on the convoy from ambush positions but were repelled,” the presidency said in a statement.

Attacks on prisons in Nigeria have happened in the past, with gunmen seeking to free inmates.

More than 1,800 prisoners escaped last year after heavily armed men attacked a prison in southeast Nigeria using explosives.

The attackers blasted their way into the Owerri prison in Imo state, engaging guards in a gun battle before storming the prison. Imo state lies in a region that is a hotbed for separatist groups.

Spain said Wednesday it was hoping to reach its record visitor numbers of 2019 after two years of pandemic restrictions, although soaring inflation figures suggest tough times will return after the season ends. 

Before the pandemic hit in 2020, Spain was the world’s second-favourite holiday destination and this year it looks set to reclaim its place, the Exceltur tourism association said. 

Thanks to the “travel frenzy sweeping across Europe” Spain had seen a “dazzling surge in tourist numbers”, it said.

According to Spain’s tourism ministry, 22.7 million tourists visited the country in the first five months of 2022, seven times the number in the same period a year earlier, with the trend set to continue into the summer. 

“The number of bookings confirms Spain as a favourite international destination and indicates a good outlook for the high season,” Tourism Minister Reyes Maroto said on Monday. 

“After two long years.. we are finally going to see a summer like in previous years,” said Fernando Valdes, a top official at the tourism ministry.

This year, Spain’s tourism activity is expected to “reach a level similar to that of 2017, when the sector performed very well,” said Caixabank analyst Javier Ibanez. 

“The sectoral indicators paint a very positive picture.”

Exceltur said July and August could even be “similar” to levels reached in 2019, which was a record year for Spain in terms of visitors. 

“European and national demand is very high”, with the surge in activity expected to impact “the entire (tourism) sector”, said the association’s vice president Jose Luis Zoreda. 

And this view is shared across the sector, particularly by those along the coast. 

– Best-ever summer? –

“Everything suggests this is going to be one of our best-ever summers thanks to the post-pandemic syndrome,” said Diego Salinas, head of Abreca, an association representing bars, restaurants and cafes in Benidorm, a mass tourism hub on Spain’s southeastern coast.  

For the tourism sector which accounted for 13 percent of jobs and 12.5 percent of Spain’s GDP before the pandemic, this long-awaited revival is a huge relief, even if many players have struggled to recruit staff, notably on the coast and in big cities. 

Exceltur believes tourism will generate some 151.8 billion euros ($155 billion) this year — fully 10 billion more than initially expected. 

Such a figure would be slightly lower than the 155 billion euros reached in 2019 but far outstripping the 52 billion of 2020 or the 88 billion generated a year later. 

The destinations which are likely to benefit most from this visitor surge are the Andalusian coastline, which is expecting 7.4 percent more visitors than in 2019, with a 3.5 percent increase in the Canary Islands and 3.6 percent rise in the Balearic Islands. 

And the sub-sectors with the most optimistic outlook include leisure parks and car hire firms.

– Overcrowding risks –

But this strong recovery is not without its concerns, notably linked to the overcrowding at several airports in recent weeks which has revived the controversy over Spain’s mass-tourism model. 

This “intense and unexpected explosion in demand” could lead to moments of “saturation” that might create tension between residents and tourists, admitted Exceltur’s Zoreda, warning it could impact on “the sector’s reputation”. 

There is also the uncertainty created by spiralling global inflation which has seen food and energy prices soar and is severely limiting company margins, Exceltur said. 

And will this surge in prices also impact on the sector’s recovery by undermining consumer purchasing power?

While the sector has so far shown resilience, the economic slowdown caused by the war in Ukraine “will affect” tourism, says Caixabank’s Ibanez. 

It is an outlook also shared by Exceltur. 

“There are many geopolitical and economic uncertainties in the medium term for tourism,” it acknowledged.

“The extraordinary takeoff this summer will have to coexist with the turbulence that could be felt in the autumn.”