AFP

On Taiwan’s tiny Penghu islands, the missile bases that sit next to white-sand beaches and bustling fish markets are a visceral reminder of the constant threat of attack from China.

Despite the huge military discrepancy between the two sides, many analysts believe Taiwan’s location, inhospitable terrain and US support mean China would find a full-scale invasion extremely hard — and possibly too costly to countenance. 

Communist China and Taiwan split at the end of a civil war in 1949 with the losing Kuomintang forces retreating to the island. But Beijing insists now-democratically run Taiwan is part of its territory, and that it will one day re-take it, by force if necessary. 

Recent record Chinese fighter jet incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone and increasingly aggressive rhetoric under President Xi Jinping have raised fears China might contemplate acting on that pledge sooner rather than later. 

The Chinese defence ministry last week said it would “not hesitate to start a war” to stop Taiwan becoming independent.

One US admiral has said an attack could come by 2027, the centenary of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

“If we were to go head to head militarily, we don’t stand a single chance,” retired admiral Lee Hsi-min, who was head of Taiwan’s armed forces until 2019, told AFP bluntly.

But Russia’s failure to quickly overrun Ukraine stands as a cautionary tale to Beijing, while simultaneously providing Taipei with both tactical blueprints and inspiration on how to hold off a much larger enemy.

“Our soldiers here are all Taiwanese and will be fighting to defend their homeland,” said Chen Ing-jin, a Penghu historian and architect. “That makes a difference. Just look at Ukraine.”

– ‘A defender’s dream’ – 

Taiwan’s biggest advantage is its geography.

Amphibious assaults are exceedingly difficult and if China was to invade Taiwan — and crucially hold it — Beijing would need to move hundreds of thousands of troops as well as equipment across the Taiwan Strait.

Even at its narrowest point the strait is 130 kilometres (80 miles) and weather conditions are notoriously unforgiving with two monsoon seasons. 

That leaves just two brief “windows of attack” — May to July and October — for such a large-scale operation, according to a US Naval War College report.

In addition, studded into the waters are outlying islands like the Penghu chain — bristling with radar and missiles pointing straight out into the strait.  

With the likely early warning, and the weaponry Taipei has at its disposal, the PLA would probably incur high losses even in that first stage of transit, said James Char, an Associate Research Fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

And while the small, flat outlying islands might in the end prove easy for Beijing to subdue, on Taiwan’s main island, the opposite applies.

The coastal terrain there “is a defender’s dream come true”, according to Ian Easton, author of “The Chinese Invasion Threat”.

He and his colleagues estimate that Taiwan only has 14 small beaches suitable for landing, and even they are bordered by mountains, cliffs or dense urban infrastructure. 

“Landing on Taiwan is only part of the problem,” Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told AFP. 

Progress through Taiwan’s wetlands, mountains and densely populated urban areas will require a huge range of different combat skills and weapons.

“How is it going to sustain those forces once they’re in position and advancing — how is it going to do the logistics?” Lin asked.

– Weapons –

China has spent hundreds of billions of dollars upgrading its military capabilities over the past decade, and its statistical dominance over Taiwan is enormous. 

The PLA has over one million ground force personnel to Taiwan’s 88,000, 6,300 tanks compared with 800, and 1,600 fighter jets to 400, according to the US Department of Defence.  

Washington also estimates Beijing has the world’s largest Navy by ship number. A recent US Naval War College paper described those ships as “increasingly sophisticated, capable vessels”.

But many experts, including both Char and Lin, question whether they are yet capable enough.

Atlantic Council senior advisor Harlan Ullman put it more forcefully in a February paper: “China simply lacks the military capability and capacity to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan for the foreseeable future”.  

In the meantime, Taiwan has plans to counter China’s might in numbers, with retired admiral Lee highlighting asymmetric warfare — an emphasis on mobility and precision attacks — an approach US officials are reportedly encouraging. 

Lee pointed to the success of the Ukrainian mobile missile launcher that sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva.

Taiwan has built up stockpiles of mobile missile batteries and shoulder-launched weapons but he said they needed lots more. 

– US support –

The factor that preoccupies Beijing most is who else might get involved in the conflict, Chinese military expert Song Zhongping told AFP. 

“The difficulty of liberating Taiwan lies in the potential intervention of the United States. It’s the biggest obstacle for the PLA to clear,” he said. 

The United States officially maintains a “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene militarily in the event of an invasion. But it supplies Taiwan with military hardware and President Joe Biden has said multiple times that Washington would intervene. 

The “extent, depth and breadth” of US and other allies’ involvement would greatly determine how any conflict would play out, said Song. 

Some wargame scenarios see the PLA taking out US bases in the Pacific to kneecap its ability to respond. Washington would be heavily reliant on aircraft carriers operating far from home. 

To counter that threat China has prioritised the development of hypersonic “carrier killer” missiles and militarised multiple atolls in the disputed South China Sea.

But an attack on US forces could provoke a more determined backlash and draw American allies into a global conflict.

Even without a military intervention, Char said the threat of economic sanctions like those placed on Russia would give the Chinese leadership pause for thought.

– Political willpower –

The question of whether China would be prepared to cause mass casualties with an invasion, while risking its domestic and international image, is a fundamental one.

“You need to let China know that it will suffer tremendous losses, and even then it may still not be able to occupy Taiwan,” said Lee. 

“So that China will think that the best way to resolve the Taiwan problem is by peaceful means.”

There are a range of other options short of all-out invasion Beijing could use to bring Taipei to its knees — including a Taiwan Strait blockade, annexation of the outlying islands, or incapacitation of military and cyber systems.

“China might come up with other formulations or creative diplomatic strategic solutions to declare unification with Taiwan without actually having achieved that,” CSIS’ Lin said.  

Chinese analyst Song said Beijing has made its invasion trigger clear. 

“The timing depends on the behaviour of the Taiwanese separatists and if they insist on advocating for Taiwan’s independence,” he said.

The island’s 23 million people have increasingly embraced a distinct Taiwanese identity and President Tsai Ing-wen, who views the island as a sovereign state, has won two elections. 

The next presidential elections are next due in 2024 and Ukraine’s fate has only further hardened attitudes towards China.

In a survey conducted in May, 61.4 percent of respondents said they were willing to take up arms in the event of an invasion. 

The decision ultimately rests with Xi Jinping, the most authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, who has been central to the rising fears that China will invade Taiwan.

Xi is on the cusp of securing an unprecedented third term this year. And since he came to power, Char said, “there’s been a total shift from the previous mantra of peace and development” towards Taiwan.

Instead, he added, Xi has pushed the mantra “accomplish something magnificent and great”.

In a landmark 2019 speech on Taiwan, Xi said unification was “an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people”.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has long been sidelined on the world stage but as he prepares to mark five years as de facto leader, he is finally coming in from the cold.

Next month’s visit by US President Joe Biden will complete the international rehabilitation of the 36-year-old prince, who was widely reviled over the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Biden’s trip — after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices soaring, piling on economic pain — follows visits by the leaders of France, Britain and Turkey.

It represents an unqualified victory for Prince Mohammed, who has led his country on a rollercoaster ride since being named the heir of his father King Salman, 86, on June 21, 2017.

In his time as unofficial ruler of Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter and the home of Islam’s two holiest sites, “MBS” has liberalised many aspects of daily life while asserting stern control over others.

Yet his drive to transform the conservative kingdom risked being completely overshadowed by Khashoggi’s murder, an act so abhorrent that Biden’s trip — a routine move for past American leaders — has sparked controversy.

Saudi agents killed and dismembered Khashoggi, an insider turned critic, in the kingdom’s Istanbul consulate in October 2018.

US intelligence concluded that Prince Mohammed “approved” an operation to capture or kill Khashoggi, a charge he denies.

Following the visits by France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the planned meeting with Biden is a major validation of Prince Mohammed.

“Washington was kind of the hub of opposition to MBS when it comes to official public statements and mobilisation in the West,” said Yasmine Farouk of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This is exactly what MBS was aiming to get through the last year-and-a-half: a meeting and a picture with Biden as a counterpart,” said one Riyadh-based diplomat.

– Women at the wheel –

When he arrives, Biden will find Prince Mohammed’s stamp almost everywhere. But no group has been affected more than Saudi women.

The axing of notorious rules concerning what women can wear and where they can go is a centrepiece of the new Saudi liberalisation narrative.

Abaya robes and hijab headscarves are now optional, women are no longer banned from concerts and sporting events, and in 2018 they gained the right to drive.

The kingdom has also eased so-called guardianship rules, meaning women can now obtain passports and travel abroad without a male relative’s permission.

Yet the story for women has not been entirely positive, especially for those who dare to speak out.

In 2018, authorities arrested at least a dozen women activists, most of them right before the ban on female motorists was lifted.

The move was preceded by a clampdown that hit princes and senior officials suspected of graft or disloyalty, dozens of whom were rounded up in November 2017 in Riyadh’s luxury Ritz-Carlton hotel.

Prince Mohammed “has coupled his dramatic and thoroughgoing cultural, social and artistic revolution from the top down… with an equally dramatic concentration of power politically”, said Hussein Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

– Next phase ‘critical’ –

Some of Prince Mohammed’s most striking policies have played out beyond his country’s borders.

Two months after his father, King Salman, ascended the throne in 2015 and named Prince Mohammed defence minister, Riyadh rallied a coalition to intervene in war-hit Yemen.

The conflict between the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and Iran-aligned Huthi rebels has gone on to kill hundreds of thousands of people directly and indirectly and drive millions to the brink of famine.

Signs of a more muscular Saudi foreign policy were also seen in a three-year blockade of Qatar that began in June 2017, the same month Prince Mohammed became heir.

More recently, the kingdom has adopted what analysts call a somewhat conciliatory approach in the region, for example by engaging in talks with rival Iran. Prince Mohammed has also referred to Israel as a “potential ally”.

Perhaps the most significant element of Prince Mohammed’s Vision 2030 reform agenda is his bid to remake an economy long dependent on oil.

The effort includes a push for some 30 million foreign tourists annually by 2030, some of them lured by mega-projects like NEOM, a $500 billion futuristic megacity complete with robot maids and flying taxis.

Other changes, such as drawing more Saudis into the workforce, are less flashy and, like other recent moves, were discussed before Prince Mohammed’s rise.

“He is the powerhouse, but he didn’t do something that wasn’t already the subject of discussion in the public sphere,” said Farouk, referring to the reforms generally.

Nevertheless, Prince Mohammed now owns Saudi Arabia’s reform process and his legacy will hinge on its success, said Kristian Ulrichsen of Rice University’s Baker Institute in the United States.

“Having made so much of the fact that he, and only he, can transform Saudi Arabia by 2030, the next several years will be critical for Mohammed bin Salman as he seeks to deliver tangible results.”

Montrell Carmouche praises Mexico’s white beaches and coral reefs, selling it by telephone as a holiday destination while trying not to reveal that he has never been there — or that he is, in fact, an inmate imprisoned in the United States.

His story — and his pay, a meager $6 commission per sale — are featured in a report released this week by the powerful American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the University of Chicago which documents the work of the US prison population. 

Inmates “are paid pennies for their work in often unsafe working conditions even as they produce billions of dollars for states and the federal government,” according to ACLU researcher Jennifer Turner, lead author of the paper.  

The US incarceration rate is among the highest in the world, with more than 1.2 million people held in state and federal prisons. 

Two-thirds of them have jobs behind bars and produce more than $11 billion worth of goods and services each year, according to the report, “Captive Labor: Exploitation of Incarcerated Workers,” which compiles other surveys, official documents and interviews with inmates. 

The vast majority — more than 80 percent — are employed to keep their prisons running as cleaners, cooks, electricians and plumbers for wages ranging from $0 to $1.24 an hour. 

The Bureau of Prisons described the work program in a statement to AFP as a means of reducing “inmate idleness, while allowing the inmate to improve and/or develop useful job skills, work habits, and experiences that will assist in post-release employment.”

In 2004, a conservative estimate of the value from their work was $9 billion, the ACLU report says. 

“All the jobs we are doing in prison are not really benefiting us; it is more benefitting the prison system,” commented Latashia Millender, an Illinois inmate quoted in the paper. 

“I work a job making $450 for a whole year. If they were to pay a civilian for the same job that would be his pay for just one week.” 

– ‘Fundamental human rights’ – 

Some 50,000 prisoners provide goods and services that are sold to other government agencies — jobs including washing sheets for hospitals, or making uniforms for public employees.

That labor was worth $2.09 billion in 2021, according to the National Prison Industries Association. 

Again, the wages are nominal: in Oregon, for example, the vehicle registration agency pays inmates $4 to $6 a day to make license plates, compared to $80 for free employees. 

Finally, fewer than 5,000 inmates, including Montrell Carmouche, work for private companies, whose clients often do not know the origin of the products. 

These jobs, which pay slightly more, are in high demand. But most of the earnings are seized by the government, often to reimburse their legal fees. 

Regardless of the job, the report’s authors point out that inmates have little or no training for the tasks assigned to them, generally cannot refuse them and lack the equipment necessary for their safety. 

In its statement, the Bureau of Prisons said that “human treatment” of inmates was “a top priority,” and added that subject to approval prisoners can instead do drug treatment, education or vocational training in place of some or all of the work program.

Only inmates who are “physically and mentally able” are assigned to work programs, it said, adding that the programs “are to meet the appropriate minimum standards for health and safety,”

For the report’s authors, that was not enough.

“(T)he labor conditions of incarcerated workers in many US prisons violate the most fundamental human rights to life and dignity,” concluded Claudia Flores of the University of Chicago, co-author of the study, recommending a series of reforms, including the imposition of a minimum wage.