Asia Business

The Bank of Japan warned Thursday of “high uncertainties” following the ruling party’s worst election result in 15 years, as it kept interest rates unchanged.Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition lost its majority in Sunday’s snap vote, likely forcing him to head a minority government with support from other parties to pass legislation.Businesses and economists worry …

Bank of Japan warns of ‘high uncertainties’ after election Read More »

China’s manufacturing output expanded this month for the first time since April, official data showed Thursday, rare good news for leaders struggling to boost activity in the world’s second-largest economy.The country is battling sluggish domestic consumption, a persistent crisis in the property sector and soaring government debt — all of which threaten Beijing’s official growth …

China factory output expands for first time in six months Read More »

Markets fell Tuesday and the yen rallied after Japan announced a surprise tweak to its ultra-loose monetary policy, just as traders were fretting that central bank efforts to tame inflation will tip economies into recession.

Sentiment was also being weighed down by a spike in Covid infections in China as officials roll back many of the strict containment measures that have been in place for almost three years.

A so-called Santa rally appears to be eluding investors, with the mood dampened by last week’s warnings from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank that they will likely push interest rates higher than expected next year.

The remarks dealt a blow to a short rally across equities that had been fuelled by data showing inflation coming down.

Adding to the selling pressure were comments from former New York Fed chief William Dudley, who told Bloomberg Television that any sign of optimism in markets could make monetary policymakers tighten even more.

Tokyo sank more than two percent after the Bank of Japan adjusted its parameters for controlling bond yields, in a shift away from its long-running dovish stance of keeping rates ultra-low to boost the struggling economy.

Inflation in Japan has risen sharply this year, with the consumer price index in October at 3.6 percent, the highest in four decades, though bank boss Haruhiko Kuroda and other officials have said that would be temporary, citing a lack of strong demand and wage rises.

The move sent the yen to 132.30 per dollar, its strongest level since August.

The Japanese unit has been hobbled this year by the BoJ’s determination to stick to its loose monetary policy — hitting a 32-year low of around 150 to the dollar in October — even as the Fed ramped up borrowing costs. 

– No Santa rally –

“This was bound to happen with inflation rising in Japan, it’s just happened sooner than many thought,” Amir Anvarzadeh, of Asymmetric Advisors, said. “It could spark money flowing back into Japan.”

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Mumbai, Jakarta and Bangkok were also in the red.

London, Paris and Frankfurt all sank at the open.

“Those who were in the camp of a year-end rally are now second-guessing their investment thesis,” said JC O’Hara of MKM Partners.

“The markets may have placed a little too much faith in Santa Claus and the rally he typically brings.”

With few catalysts to drive trade, investors are winding down for the Christmas break, though they are keeping a close eye on developments in China, which is suffering a sharp jump in Covid cases.

Officials in recent weeks have started to move away from their rigid zero-Covid policy of lockdowns and mass testing following widespread protests.

And while the shift has been welcomed as a much-needed boost to the world’s number-two economy, there is growing anxiety about the immediate impact on businesses and the healthcare system.

“A massive China reopening bounce is giving way to a reality check as investors come to grips with numerous zero-Covid offramp economic and medical issues that China is simply unprepared to handle,” said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes.

“Especially if the predicted 10 million-plus daily Covid cases hit the healthcare system later this month.”

Still, the expected pick-up in demand from the China reopening continues to support commodity prices, with both main oil contracts up more than one percent, extending Monday’s gains.

The impact of Covid and weaknesses in the country’s vast property sector led the World Bank on Tuesday to slash its China growth forecasts to 2.7 percent this year, from 4.3 percent predicted in June. It also revised its forecast for next year from 8.1 percent down to 4.3 percent. 

– Key figures around 0820 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 2.5 percent at 26,568.03 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.3 percent at 19,094.80 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 1.1 percent at 3,073.77 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.7 percent at 7,312.94

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 132.39 yen from 136.95 yen on Monday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0623 from $1.0610 

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2146 from $1.2148

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.44 pence from 87.31 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $75.07 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.3 percent at $79.58 per barrel

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.5 percent at 32,757.54 (close)

Japan’s central bank tweaked its longstanding monetary easing programme on Tuesday, in a surprise move that saw the yen strengthen quickly against the dollar and prompted falls on Tokyo bourses.

The change marks a rare shift of gears for the dovish central bank, which has largely left its policy intact even as counterparts in other major economies hike rates to tackle inflation.

After a two-day policy meeting, the bank said it would widen the band in which it would allow rates for 10-year Japan government bonds to move, saying it would “improve market functioning”.

“The Bank will expand the range of 10-year JGB yield fluctuations from the target level: from between around plus and minus 0.25 percentage points to between around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points,” it said in a statement.

The move saw the yen strengthen rapidly against the dollar, with the greenback falling from a daily high of 137 yen to 133 yen within minutes of the decision.

The announcement came during the morning break in Tokyo trade, but the key Nikkei 225 index plunged as it reopened, falling as much as three percent before recovering slightly.

Few had anticipated the shift, with all 47 of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of the decision saying they expected no change in policy.

The bank left the rest of its longstanding loose monetary programme intact, including its years-old inflation target of two percent.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term ends next spring, has for years struggled to steer the world’s third largest economy towards sustained two percent inflation, seen as necessary for growth.

Prices in Japan have risen sharply this year, with the consumer price index in October at 3.6 percent, the highest in four decades.

But Kuroda and the central bank consider the increases temporary, citing a lack of strong demand and wage rises.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday afternoon, Kuroda insisted the shift “is not the first step of an exit strategy”.

“Once the price stability target draws closer, the monetary policy board will discuss strategies toward the exit and will make information public accordingly,” he said.

– ‘A sense of policy flexibility’ –

Still, the BoJ has come under pressure to move away from its ultra-loose policy as central banks in other major economies hike interest rates to tackle inflation.

The resulting differential has seen the yen nosedive about 20 percent against the dollar this year.

Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Group, said the decision showed the bank recognised its existing policy was no longer tenable.

“It has been unrealistic to try to cap the long-term yield with the fixed-rate bond-buying operations at 0.25 percent,” he told AFP.

“It seems to me that the bank wanted to create a little bit of a sense of policy flexibility or room for policy choices and pass the baton to the next governor,” he added.

Kuroda’s term ends in April, and over the weekend reports suggested Japan’s government could work with his successor to move away from the longstanding two-percent price target.

The bank’s decision Tuesday sent shockwaves through Asian markets, with stocks falling on regional bourses as investors digested the news.

“In reality, the long-term rate will become 0.5 percent. It will reduce the rate gap between Japan and the US,” said Kumano.

But Kuroda was at pains to insist “this is not a rate hike”.

Saisuke Sakai, chief economist of Mizuho Research & Technologies, said the move would help address the weaker yen caused by the growing gulf between US and Japanese central bank policy.

But “unlike rate hikes by the Fed and European central banks aimed at cooling down overheated economies… this is aimed chiefly at stabilising market function,” he told AFP.

“Japan’s economy has not recovered to the pre-pandemic level yet, in contrast to the US economy,” he noted.

Hong Kong’s stock exchange is on track for its weakest year since 2012 for new listings as the city reeled from the pandemic, rising interest rates and China’s economic uncertainty, according to data released Tuesday.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) said this year it had 69 new listings raising HK$87.8 billion ($11.3 billion) as of November 30, down 74 percent from the year before.

The bourse said “renewed momentum” in the second half of the year accounted for nearly two-thirds of the IPOs, following a slump during the city’s worst-ever coronavirus outbreak.

“The macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop led to weak sentiment and softness in the global IPO market,” the exchange said.

The latest figures were a steep drop from peak levels in 2020 when IPOs raised HK$400 billion, as Hong Kong benefited from the bonanza of Chinese mega-companies opting to list closer to home.

Before the pandemic Hong Kong’s bourse was often crowned as the top IPO venue in the world, drawing more than 100 new listings annually between 2013 and 2020.

HKEX shares have lost 28.3 percent since the start of the year while the city’s flagship Hang Seng Index is down 18 percent.

But both have seen a rebound in the past six weeks. 

As China pivots towards reopening, bankers and analysts expect a slew of mid-sized Hong Kong deals in the first quarter will drive a recovery in listings.

“With the transition toward a reopening, we anticipate several delayed Chinese IPOs and follow-on transactions to occur in the near term,” Murli Maiya of JPMorgan Chase in Hong Kong told Bloomberg News.

Victoria Lloyd, a partner in Baker McKenzie’s Hong Kong office, said she expected the IPO pipeline to pick up after Chinese New Year.

“With China opening up, everyone is hoping that next year will be a better year — because there is a solid IPO pipeline, with a series of companies that have submitted applications for listings or are waiting to do so,” Lloyd told Bloomberg.

HKEX said Tuesday that it had bolstered its popular “Connect” franchise this year that links to bourses in Shanghai and Shenzhen, which will soon extend to interbank interest rate swap markets.

This year Hong Kong also saw the listing of four special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) — investment vehicles sometimes called “blank cheque” companies.

HKEX started to allow SPAC listings this year, subject to a strict framework, in a bid to boost competitiveness following in the steps of regional rival Singapore.

But SPACs have largely fallen out of favour this year on Wall Street amid rising inflation, interest rate hikes and a looming recession.

A junta court will hear the final arguments in the 18-month-long trial of Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi next week, a legal source said Tuesday, before reaching its final verdicts against the Nobel laureate.

Suu Kyi has been a prisoner since the military toppled her government in February 2021, ending the Southeast Asian nation’s brief period of democracy.

She has been convicted on 14 charges, ranging from corruption to illegally possessing walkie-talkies and flouting Covid restrictions.

The junta court will hear “final arguments” from both sides related to five remaining charges of corruption on December 26, according to a source with knowledge of the case.

“The verdict will be given after that stage,” the source said, adding a date had not yet been set.

Suu Kyi, 77, appeared in good health, the source said.

Each corruption charge carries a maximum jail term of 15 years. 

Journalists have been barred from attending the court hearings and Suu Kyi’s lawyers have been banned from speaking to the media.

In June, she was transferred from house arrest in military-built Naypyidaw to a prison compound, where her trial continues at a special court.

The military alleged widespread voter fraud during the November 2020 election, won resoundingly by Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party, although international observers said the poll was largely free and fair.

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the coup, with over 2,500 killed in the military’s crackdown on dissent, according to a local monitoring group.