World

Bernanke: Depression scholar who faced global financial crisis

Ben Bernanke, who shared the Nobel Economics Prize on Monday, is a scholar of the Great Depression who helped to steer the United States through another major financial crisis as Federal Reserve chief.

Bernanke took over as Fed chair in February 2006, just before the collapse of the US housing market that triggered a global crisis of epic proportions.

Many analysts say Bernanke’s aggressive and unorthodox moves allowed the central bank to prop up the financial system and keep credit flowing, therefore avoiding a repeat of a 1930s-style calamity.

His critics, though, argue that he did little to avert the crisis and may have helped fuel the problems when he was a Fed governor in 2002-2005 under then-chairman Alan Greenspan and subsequently headed the Council of Economic Advisers under former president George W. Bush.

The Nobel jury awarded the prize to Bernanke, 68, along with fellow US economists Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig for having “significantly improved our understanding of the role of banks in the economy, particularly during financial crises, as well as how to regulate financial markets.”

Bernanke was singled out for his analysis of “the worst economic crisis in modern history” — the Great Depression in the 1930s. He published a book on his essays about the topic and co-authored another about the 2008 financial crisis.

He is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington and a senior adviser to the asset management firms Pimco and Citadel — appointments that raised concerns about the “revolving door” between Washington and Wall Street.

– ‘Creative leadership’ –

In recognition for his actions during the global financial crisis, he was named TIME magazine’s “Person of the Year” for 2009.

TIME honored the former Princeton University professor as “the most important player guiding the world’s most important economy.”

“His creative leadership helped ensure that 2009 was a period of weak recovery rather than catastrophic depression,” TIME senior writer Michael Grunwald wrote.

Grunwald said at the time that Bernanke still wielded “unrivaled power over our money, our jobs, our savings and our national future.”

Bernanke served as central bank chief under Bush and was kept on the job by the Republican leader’s Democratic successor, Barack Obama.

The former central banker has stressed the importance of transparency in the Fed’s communications, stepping away from Greenspan’s turgid, jargon-laden statements.

And unlike his predecessor, Bernanke talked often to reporters.

Joseph Brusuelas, a director at Moody’s Analytics, once said that the Fed’s unorthodox response to the global financial crisis was “without precedent” as it slashed its policy rate to zero and “flooded the financial system with liquidity.”

The Fed’s moves, Brusuelas said, “slowly rebuilt confidence in the banking system.”

Jeffrey Sachs, economist at Columbia University, said “a depression seemed possible” at the time of the Lehman Brothers collapse in September 2008, but action by central banks “prevented financial markets from crashing.”

– Lehman ‘blunder’ –

But others criticized him for failing to better predict the severity of the economic crisis: in 2007, when the first signs of the subprime mortgage crisis emerged, Bernanke assured Congress that the fallout would be limited.

Others accuse Bernanke of failing to act quickly to cut interest rates once the scale of the crisis emerged. The Fed instead adopted a go-slow posture on cutting rates, before making an emergency cut in January 2008.

Among Bernanke critics, the late economist Allan Meltzer at Carnegie Mellon University said the Lehman collapse represented a mistake of historic proportions.

“Allowing Lehman to fail without warning is one of the worst blunders in Federal Reserve history,” he wrote in a Wall Street Journal essay.

Bernanke was born on December 13, 1953 in Augusta, Georgia, to a pharmacist father and a schoolteacher mother. He grew up in a Jewish household, a minority in the heavily Christian community.

He spent his childhood in Dillon, South Carolina — a farm town with a population of 7,500 — and was a star scholar, achieving a near-perfect score in the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT), a university entrance exam.

He studied economics at Harvard and graduated with top honors in 1975, then went on to obtain a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 

He worked at Princeton for 17 years before joining the Federal Reserve Board in 2002.

Jailed Putin opponent Kara-Murza wins Council of Europe rights prize

Jailed Russian opposition figure Vladimir Kara-Murza is the winner of this year’s Vaclav Havel Human Rights Prize, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) said on Monday.

“It takes incredible courage in today’s Russia to stand against the power in place. Today, Mr Kara-Murza is showing this courage, from his prison cell,” PACE president Tiny Kox said. 

Kara-Murza, long bitterly critical of President Vladimir Putin, was jailed in April for denouncing the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine and has now been charged with high treason which could see him imprisoned for two decades.

“The current Russian authorities — without intending to do so — have painted the portrait of a true patriot. Vladimir Putin’s government sees such people as traitors,” Kara-Murza’s wife Yevgeniya said as she received the award on his behalf.

“Well, I could not be prouder of my partner, my best friend, the father of my children.”

She read a statement her husband had written to acknowledge the award from jail.

“With the start of Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, he launched a war on truth in our country,” Vladimir Kara-Murza said. 

“In Vladimir Putin’s Russia, speaking the truth is considered a crime against the state.”

He said that he dedicated the award to other political prisoners in Russia and the money that comes with it would go into a fund for their families.

The prize is named after the former Czech dissident and playwright who became president of the Czech Republic with the fall of Communism.

The award comes after the Russian rights group Memorial was a co-winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

Britain unveils fresh action to calm markets turmoil

Britain on Monday ramped up efforts to calm markets after a heavily criticised budget, with the government bringing forward key economic forecasts and the Bank of England boosting liquidity.

Finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng will unveil debt-slashing plans and predictions sooner than expected, after markets chaos sparked by his borrowing-fuelled budget at the end of September.

In a U-turn, Kwarteng revealed he would publish his medium-term fiscal plan alongside the forecasts on October 31 rather than in late November.

It comes after the chancellor of the exchequer was already forced to axe a tax cut for the richest earners, in the face of outrage as millions of Britons face a cost-of-living crisis with UK inflation around 10 percent.

Markets have been spooked by the budget from the government of new Prime Minister Liz Truss, who has also unveiled a costly energy price freeze for households and businesses.

The plans that are aimed at supporting Britain’s recession-threatened economy sent UK bond yields soaring and the pound tumbling to a record low against the dollar.

– Bank of England action –

The Bank of England earlier Monday revealed it was launching a temporary facility aimed at easing liquidity pressures that arose after the budget shocked markets.

The BoE in a statement announced “additional measures to support market functioning”.

It added that the central bank was ready to increase the size of its UK government bond purchases under an emergency measure due to end Friday.

The BoE said it was launching a Temporary Expanded Collateral Repo Facility, enabling “banks to help to ease liquidity pressures facing” client funds beyond the end of this week.

The budget turmoil triggered the emergency buying of long-dated bonds by the BoE.

The central bank has so far made purchases of so-called gilts totalling around £5 billion ($5.5 billion), far less than its £65-billion limit, under a plan ending Friday.

The purchases are “to restore market functioning in long-dated government bonds and reduce risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses”, the BoE stressed in its statement Monday.

The budget was widely criticised, including by the International Monetary Fund, over fears that government debt would balloon to pay for the tax cuts.

Fitch last week lowered the outlook on its credit rating for British government debt to negative from stable.

The pound was down against the dollar Monday but above the record-low level that was close to parity.

– Calm for now –

Britain’s turbulent bond market meanwhile remains elevated on stubborn debt concerns.

The yield on 30-year UK government bonds, which spiked to 5.14 percent following the budget, stood at 4.48 percent on Monday.

“The central bank’s action has helped to calm government debt markets but there are concerns about what happens next week after the BoE’s support package ends,” noted Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor.

Monday’s intervention comes as Britain suffers a cost-of-living crisis caused by the highest inflation in decades after energy and food prices have rocketed this year.

The BoE has piled on further pressure by hiking its main interest rate to a 14-year high in a bid to cool inflation.

This in turn has seen retail banks ramp up interest rates on mortgages, with analysts predicting heavy price falls for homes.

Stocks down, dollar up as markets expect more big US rate hikes

Stock markets mostly retreated and the dollar firmed Monday as forecast-beating US jobs data fanned expectations for more large interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

A rally across equity trading floors last week has given way to gloom as investors grow increasingly worried that central bank rate hikes to tame runaway prices will plunge the global economy into recession.

Adding to the stress is the upcoming corporate earnings season, which many fear will show that companies are feeling the pain of tightening monetary policies.

European and Asian equities mostly suffered Monday following heavy losses Friday on Wall Street.

Last week closed out with news that the United States created a net 263,000 jobs in September.

While that was down from August it was more than expected, highlighting the tough job Fed officials face in their battle against decades-high inflation. 

With the spotlight on a US consumer price index reading later in the week, policymakers continue to take a hawkish tone, warning they will not ease up on their rate hikes even if that means causing a recession.

Elsewhere on Monday, the Moscow stock exchange plunged nearly 12 percent following multiple strikes on Ukrainian cities and a weekend explosion that partially destroyed the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia.

In foreign exchange and amid a strong dollar, the pound won little support from Britain ramping up efforts to calm markets after a heavily criticised budget.

In what was seen as co-ordinated action, the government brought forward key economic forecasts and the Bank of England boosted liquidity.

“With the pound remaining weak and (UK) government borrowing costs inching up again towards worrying levels, the UK government and the Bank of England have launched a two-pronged attempt to calm markets,” noted Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Oil prices meanwhile fell after the biggest weekly gain since March that followed a decision by OPEC and allied producers led by Russia to slash crude output by two million barrels per day.

The drop Monday came also on demand concerns caused by China’s Covid flare-ups and more weak data out of Beijing owing to lockdowns.

– Key figures around 1030 GMT –

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 6,967.02 points

Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 12,319.65

Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.4 percent at 5,842.82

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,365.99

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 3.0 percent at 17,216.66 (close) 

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 1.7 percent at 2,974.15 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

New York – Dow: DOWN 2.1 percent at 29,296.79 (close)

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.1058 from $1.1082 on Friday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $0.9703 from $0.9743

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.75 pence from 87.97 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 145.46 yen from 145.38 yen

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.5 percent at $92.16 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $97.22 per barrel

Iran protesters defiant despite crackdown

Protesters in Iran remained defiant in the fourth week of a movement against the Islamic republic despite a crackdown including the use of tear gas in Tehran and reports Monday of heavy weaponry used in the Kurdish-populated northwest.

Videos posted on social media indicated that protests flared at various points in the capital and other cities nationwide over the last days, with women seen burning headscarves and shouting slogans against the Islamic system.

Meanwhile, the Kurdish rights group Hengaw accused the authorities of using heavy weaponry, including “shelling” on neighbourhoods and “machine gun fire”, in the northwestern city of Sanandaj — claims which could not be independently confirmed.

The unrest erupted over three weeks ago over the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, an Iranian woman of Kurdish origin who died in hospital following her arrest by the notorious Tehran morality police who enforce the strict dress rules on women including compulsory headscarf.

Activists say she was beaten in custody, which is not confirmed by the authorities in Iran, who have ordered an investigation, and where a the medical report released blamed a pre-existing condition.

Outrage over her death sparked protests which have channelled anger among some Iranian women over the compulsory headscarf but have also seen repeated slogans against the Islamic system created by late revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini after the ousting of the shah in 1979.

The New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) posted videos it said were of protests in Tehran on Sunday, including at several universities including Amir Kabir and Azad.

Footage shared on social media, including by news site Iran Wire, said that students at the women’s university Al-Zahra in Tehran had shouted slogans against the regime on campus during a visit by President Ebrahim Raisi on Saturday.

Student at universities including Tehran Azad also painted their hands red to evoke the crackdown by the authorities on the protests, images showed. 

State news agency IRNA said police used tear gas “to disperse the crowds in dozens of locations in Tehran”, adding that the demonstrators “chanted slogans and set fire to and damaged public property, including a police booth.

– Multi-faceted protests –

Analysts say that the multi-faceted nature of the protests — ranging from street marches to student strikes to individual actions of defiance — has complicated attempts by the authorities to quell the movement.

This could make them an even bigger challenge to the authorities under supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 83, than the November 2019 protests against energy price hikes that were bloodily put down.

One viral video said to show a woman bare-headed in defiance of the dress code, in a street in the northwestern city of Kermanshah with outstretched arms and offering “free hugs” to passers-by.

There have also been signs of labour unrest and videos broadcast by Persian media based outside Iran showed striking workers burning tyres outside the Asalouye petrochemical plant in the country’s southwest.

Meanwhile videos have shown schoolgirls removing headscarves and taking down pictures of Khomeini and Khamenei in their classrooms. There have also been unverified reports that subsequently several of these pupils were arrested.

The protests first erupted in the Kurdistan region of northwestern Iran where Amini hailed from and activists have claimed that protesters have on occasion even taken control of some streets.

Norway-based Hengaw said that Iranian security forces had shelled and fired on neighbourhoods in the city of Sanandaj after protests overnight in several districts. 

Gunshots were also heard in Amini’s home town of Saqqez, it added.

AFP was no immediately able to confirm the veracity of the videos. Internet access remains patchy across the country due to restrictions which have particularly affected the north.

– Mass arrests –

In an act of cyber defiance, the hacking group Edalat-e Ali (Ali’s Justice) had posted an image during the main state TV evening news on Saturday of Khamenei in crosshairs and being consumed by flames.

The crackdown on the protests sparked by  Amini’s death has claimed at least 95 lives according to Norway-based group Iran Human Rights.

Another 90 people were killed by the security forces in Iran’s far southeastern city of Zahedan from September 30 after protests sparked by the alleged rape of a teenage girl by a police chief in the Sistan-Baluchistan province, said IHR, citing the UK-based Baluch Activists Campaign.

Activists also accuse the authorities of carrying out a campaign of mass arrests and travel bans to quell the protests that have not spared even the famous.

Ali Daei, once the world’s top international goalscorer in men’s football, had his passport confiscated on returning to Tehran from abroad after bitterly criticising the Islamic republic on social media, Iranian media reported.

Air France, Airbus trial to open over 2009 Rio-Paris crash

Air France and Airbus will go on trial on Monday on charges of involuntary manslaughter over the fatal 2009 crash of a jet heading to Paris from Brazil, killing all 228 people aboard.

Victims’ families and some aviation experts say the pilots were insufficiently trained to handle a loss of speed readings caused by crucial equipment freezing over in a storm.

Flight AF 447 from Rio de Janeiro plunged into the Atlantic Ocean in the early hours of June 1, 2009, after entering a zone near the Equator known for strong turbulence.

The Airbus A330 was carrying 12 crew members and 216 passengers. It was the carrier’s deadliest crash.

It took nearly two years to locate the bulk of the fuselage and recover the “black box” flight recorders.

French flagship carrier Air France and aircraft maker Airbus were charged as the inquiry progressed. 

Experts determined the crash resulted from mistakes made by pilots disorientated by so-called Pitot speed-monitoring tubes that had frozen over in thick cloud.

But investigating magistrates overseeing the case dropped the charges in 2019, a decision that infuriated victims’ families.

Prosecutors appealed against the decision and in 2021 a Paris court ruled there was sufficient evidence for a trial to go ahead. 

Ophelie Toulliou, who lost her brother on the flight, said it was essential “the truth come out, and that the sentences, if deserved, are handed down”.

“But the message is also to make companies that think they’re untouchable understand ‘You’re like everyone else and if you make mistakes, they will be punished,'” she told AFP.

– ‘Lost our speeds’ –

The court will hear testimony from dozens of aviation experts and pilots over two months of hearings, and each company faces a maximum fine of 225,000 euros ($220,000).

There will also be analysis of the final minutes in the cockpit before the plane went into free-fall after entering a so-called “intertropical convergence zone” that often produces volatile storms with heavy precipitation.

In the cold, the Pitot tubes froze, a problem that had already been reported by other pilots. The tubes were quickly replaced on planes worldwide in the months after the accident.

“We’ve lost our speeds,” one pilot is heard saying in the flight recordings, before other indicators mistakenly show a loss of altitude and a series of alarm messages appear on the cockpit screens. 

The pilots start climbing and even though a “STALL” alert sounds, reach 11,600 metres (38,060 feet). 

“I don’t know what’s happening,” one of the pilots is heard saying as the stall begins.

– Training overhaul –

Air France pilots’ union SPAF said it was now “indispensable for a court to hear all the parties and decide where responsibility lies in a public hearing”.

The crash prompted an overhaul of training protocols across the industry, in particular to prepare pilots to handle the intense stress of unforeseen circumstances.

Pilots are also now required to continually practice stall responses on simulators.

“That was the big change after this accident for all civil airline companies. Before, it was something pilots learned in basic training and then they were never trained again,” one airline executive told AFP, on condition of anonymity.

Testimony will also be heard from some of the 476 members of victims’ families who are civil plaintiffs in the case.

But Nelson Faria Marinho, president of the Brazilian association of victims’ relatives, said, “I’m not expecting anything from this trial.”

“Even if there is a conviction, who will be punished? The CEOs? They were changed at Airbus and Air France a long time ago,” he told AFP during an interview at his Rio home.

He will be represented by former French pilot Gerard Arnoux, who has advised several of the victims’ families and wrote a book titled “Rio-Paris Is Not Responding: AF447, the Crash that Should Not Have Happened”.

Air France, Airbus trial to open over 2009 Rio-Paris crash

Air France and Airbus will go on trial on Monday on charges of involuntary manslaughter over the fatal 2009 crash of a jet heading to Paris from Brazil, killing all 228 people aboard.

Victims’ families and some aviation experts say the pilots were insufficiently trained to handle a loss of speed readings caused by crucial equipment freezing over in a storm.

Flight AF 447 from Rio de Janeiro plunged into the Atlantic Ocean in the early hours of June 1, 2009, after entering a zone near the Equator known for strong turbulence.

The Airbus A330 was carrying 12 crew members and 216 passengers. It was the carrier’s deadliest crash.

It took nearly two years to locate the bulk of the fuselage and recover the “black box” flight recorders.

French flagship carrier Air France and aircraft maker Airbus were charged as the inquiry progressed. 

Experts determined the crash resulted from mistakes made by pilots disorientated by so-called Pitot speed-monitoring tubes that had frozen over in thick cloud.

But investigating magistrates overseeing the case dropped the charges in 2019, a decision that infuriated victims’ families.

Prosecutors appealed against the decision and in 2021 a Paris court ruled there was sufficient evidence for a trial to go ahead. 

Ophelie Toulliou, who lost her brother on the flight, said it was essential “the truth come out, and that the sentences, if deserved, are handed down”.

“But the message is also to make companies that think they’re untouchable understand ‘You’re like everyone else and if you make mistakes, they will be punished,'” she told AFP.

– ‘Lost our speeds’ –

The court will hear testimony from dozens of aviation experts and pilots over two months of hearings, and each company faces a maximum fine of 225,000 euros ($220,000).

There will also be analysis of the final minutes in the cockpit before the plane went into free-fall after entering a so-called “intertropical convergence zone” that often produces volatile storms with heavy precipitation.

In the cold, the Pitot tubes froze, a problem that had already been reported by other pilots. The tubes were quickly replaced on planes worldwide in the months after the accident.

“We’ve lost our speeds,” one pilot is heard saying in the flight recordings, before other indicators mistakenly show a loss of altitude and a series of alarm messages appear on the cockpit screens. 

The pilots start climbing and even though a “STALL” alert sounds, reach 11,600 metres (38,060 feet). 

“I don’t know what’s happening,” one of the pilots is heard saying as the stall begins.

– Training overhaul –

Air France pilots’ union SPAF said it was now “indispensable for a court to hear all the parties and decide where responsibility lies in a public hearing”.

The crash prompted an overhaul of training protocols across the industry, in particular to prepare pilots to handle the intense stress of unforeseen circumstances.

Pilots are also now required to continually practice stall responses on simulators.

“That was the big change after this accident for all civil airline companies. Before, it was something pilots learned in basic training and then they were never trained again,” one airline executive told AFP, on condition of anonymity.

Testimony will also be heard from some of the 476 members of victims’ families who are civil plaintiffs in the case.

But Nelson Faria Marinho, president of the Brazilian association of victims’ relatives, said, “I’m not expecting anything from this trial.”

“Even if there is a conviction, who will be punished? The CEOs? They were changed at Airbus and Air France a long time ago,” he told AFP during an interview at his Rio home.

He will be represented by former French pilot Gerard Arnoux, who has advised several of the victims’ families and wrote a book titled “Rio-Paris Is Not Responding: AF447, the Crash that Should Not Have Happened”.

China moves to stamp out Covid outbreaks before Communist Party Congress

China recorded more than 2,000 Covid cases on Monday, its highest level for a month, as officials imposed new lockdowns and restrictions to stop outbreaks from spreading to the capital ahead of the Communist Party Congress.

Although the latest case numbers are small by global standards, Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy means any outbreaks must be immediately eradicated.

President Xi Jinping, who is expected to secure a historic third term in office, has championed the policy, and any significant outbreak ahead of Sunday’s Congress opening would prove highly embarrassing for the party.

In Shanghai, tens of thousands of people were under lockdown on Monday, after multiple neighbourhoods were suddenly closed off over the weekend, following the discovery on Friday of 23 new infections.

Over 2,100 households in the financial hub were affected because of just one infection on Sunday, according to a government briefing.

Residents reacted in shock as green fences were erected around buildings, recalling the city’s harsh two-month lockdown in spring, which saw widespread complaints over shortages of food and medical treatment.

As of Monday, Shanghai has nine “medium-risk” locked-down neighbourhoods across six districts, authorities said, but there are likely many more lockdowns of individual buildings that have not been announced officially.

“After hearing about some situations, most people feel that it seems to have returned to April and May,” said one resident surnamed Li.

– Travel chaos –

Other Chinese cities were also affected.

On Friday, Yongji city in northern Shanxi province ordered a two-day lockdown of its three million residents after cases were found in a neighbouring city — despite Yongji itself recording no new infections at all.

Some travellers arriving in Beijing reported receiving a notification on their Covid tracking app which required them to undergo multiple PCR tests to access public spaces — even though they had come from areas without cases.

And some Beijing residents who had travelled during last week’s long public holiday were stranded after receiving a Covid tracking app notification which prevented them from boarding trains or flights back to the city.

Many left desperate pleas for help on the Weibo page of the official Beijing citizens’ helpline, but these comments were censored by Monday.

Several tourist hotspots imposed lockdowns last week, including Haikou city in tropical Hainan province and Xishuangbanna in the southern province of Yunnan, where hundreds of angry tourists were stranded at an airport after flights were abruptly cancelled.   

Northwestern China’s Xinjiang also banned all people from leaving the region last week after an outbreak was detected, as local authorities made a rare public admission of failure in controlling the virus.

One recent news report about a Shanghai tourist stranded in Xinjiang who took up a grape-picking job was later censored, while officials in one district last week urged tourists to “consider” taking up local employment.

Domestic tourism revenues and daily passenger trips during the October public holiday have fallen over 55 percent and 58 percent respectively from pre-pandemic levels, Nomura analysts wrote in a note. 

N. Korea says recent tests were 'tactical nuclear' drills, overseen by Kim

North Korea’s recent missile tests involved “tactical nuclear” drills to simulate hitting the South, and were overseen by leader Kim Jong Un in response to US-led joint military exercises in the region, state media said Monday.

Kim made acquiring tactical nukes — smaller, lighter weapons designed for battlefield use — a top priority at a key party congress in January 2021, and this year vowed to develop North Korea’s nuclear forces at the fastest possible speed.

The country revised its nuclear laws last month to allow pre-emptive strikes, with Kim declaring North Korea an “irreversible” nuclear power — effectively ending the possibility of negotiations over its arsenal.

Since then, Seoul, Tokyo and Washington have ramped up combined military exercises, including deploying a nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier to the area twice, infuriating Pyongyang, which sees such drills as rehearsals for invasion.

In response, North Korea “decided to organise military drills under the simulation of an actual war” that gamed out hitting South Korea’s ports, airports and military command facilities, the Korean Central News Agency said.

North Korean army units involved in “the operation of tactical nukes staged military drills from September 25 to October 9 in order to check and assess the war deterrent and nuclear counterattack capability,” the report said.

Kim “guided the military drills on the spot,” KCNA said, with images released by state media showing him clad in a white shirt, cheerfully giving instructions to uniformed soldiers.

Kim, who was also shown watching missiles soaring into the sky trailing columns of fire, dismissed the idea of restarting talks, saying North Korea “felt no necessity to do so,” KCNA reported.

The report also said that North Korea’s October 4 missile launch, which flew over Japan and prompted rare evacuation warnings, involved a “new-type ground-to-ground intermediate-range ballistic missile”.

That test — for which state media images showed Kim observing the missile flight data — aimed to “send more powerful and clear warning to the enemies”.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson acknowledged KCNA’s reports, and echoed North Korea’s mention of the US-led joint drills in the region.

“We noted the relevant reports. We also noted the recent (US-Japan-South Korea) drills in the seas around DPRK,” Mao Ning told a regular briefing Monday, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name.

– Dangerous dynamic –

North Korea’s claim its missile launches are a “response” to US-South Korea drills is part of a “familiar spiral dynamic” on the Korean peninsula, said US-based security analyst Ankit Panda.

“I worry that this is the start of a dangerous dynamic on the Korean Peninsula, where we have two states in a bitter rivalry and each faces strong incentives to fire first in a serious crisis,” he said.

“We also have no real measures of negotiated restraint or hotlines to manage crises,” he told AFP.

It is significant that North Korea is not framing the recent launches as tests of the missiles themselves, but of the units that launch them, analysts said.

“That suggests these systems are deployed,” Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies wrote on Twitter.

– ‘Nuclear harbinger’ – 

In addition to the array of “tactical nuclear” drills, North Korea said it had carried out “a large-scale combined air-attack drill”, which was also overseen by Kim.

KCNA said this involved “more than 150 fighter planes” but analysts dismissed this as domestic propaganda, and Seoul said last week it had only detected 12 North Korean warplanes flying in formation.

The volley of KCNA statements about its recent tests — which are unusual, as state media no longer routinely comments on launches — indicates Pyongyang is concerned about the recent US-led joint drills, analysts said.

“To strengthen its self-proclaimed deterrent, it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

“The KCNA report may also be a harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field,” he added.

Officials in Washington and Seoul have been warning for months that North Korea has completed preparations for another nuclear test — which would be the country’s seventh, and first since 2017.

“The fears of a nuclear war in Ukraine are no longer someone else’s concern,” Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University, told AFP.

“We need to take more seriously the fact that the possibility of a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula has increased.”

Taiwan leader vows 'no compromise' on freedom, democracy

Taiwan’s leader warned Beijing on Monday that the island would never give up its democratic way of life in a national day speech in which she drew parallels with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The self-ruled democracy’s 23 million people live under the constant threat of invasion by China’s Communist Party, and Moscow’s war in Ukraine has deepened fears that Beijing might attempt something similar with the island.

In her speech, President Tsai Ing-wen compared Moscow’s invasion to Beijing’s goal of one day taking control of Taiwan — which it has vowed to do, by force if necessary.

“We absolutely cannot ignore the challenge that these military expansions pose to the free and democratic world order,” she said.

“The destruction of Taiwan’s democracy and freedom would be a grave defeat for the world’s democracies,” she added.

Taiwan and China split at the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

China’s President Xi Jinping has ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Taipei in recent years and is a key ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Xi, China’s most authoritarian leader in a generation, is on the cusp of securing a third term later this month and has made taking Taiwan a key plank of his landmark “national rejuvenation” project.

But Tsai said becoming part of China was not acceptable to people in Taiwan, which has become a progressive democracy with a distinct Taiwanese identity.

“During the past 73 years, the people of Taiwan have lived and grown together on this land, and have formed our own strong sense of identity and belonging,” she said.

“The broadest consensus among the Taiwanese people and our various political parties is that we must defend our national sovereignty and our free and democratic way of life. On this point, we have no room for compromise.”

China cut off official ties with Taiwan after Tsai’s 2016 election because she regards the island is an already independent nation and not part of “one China”.

Beijing hit back at Tsai’s speech, calling her political party the “root cause of the current tension” between the two sides.

“We are willing to create broad space for peaceful unification, but we will never leave any space for Taiwan independence and separatist activities,” said foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

– ‘Porcupine strategy’ –

Taiwan is massively outgunned by China, which has the world’s largest military in terms of personnel, and has spent decades expanding its invasion capabilities.

Beijing hosted huge war drills in August around Taiwan to protest against a visit to Taipei by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Allies have urged Taiwan to adopt an asymmetric “porcupine strategy” that would make it hard for China’s larger military to invade, an argument that has been bolstered by the stout defence that Ukraine’s much smaller forces have put up against Moscow.

Tsai addressed this strategic shift directly in her speech. 

“We are ramping up the mass production of precision missiles and high-performance naval vessels,” she said. 

“In addition, we are working to acquire various small, highly mobile precision weapons that will help us develop comprehensive asymmetric warfare capabilities, ensuring that Taiwan is fully prepared to respond to external military threats,” she added.

She also reiterated the need to mobilise and train more civilians to work with the military, a strategy that Ukraine successfully adopted after Russia’s invasion.

“Every citizen is a guardian of our nation,” she said.

Taiwan’s national day comes shortly after China’s and the period can be a time of heightened tensions.

China sent more than 150 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in the first 10 days of October last year for what was then a record. 

So far this October has been much calmer with 25 incursions, according to an AFP database.

But the total number of flights has risen dramatically with nearly 1,300 recorded ADIZ incursions so far in 2022 compared to 969 for all of last year. 

Close Bitnami banner
Bitnami