Opinions of the Day: Taliban rule in Afghanistan will create a refugee crisis

Following the withdrawal of US troops from the country leading to the collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban gaining power, South African academic Dr Greg Mills spoke with News24 about the immediate consequences of Taliban rule.

In a lengthy analysis compiled by reporter James de Villiers, Mills, who served as a special advisor to NATO and was stationed in Kabul in 2006, asserts that a massive refugee crisis beckons for the region and while there should be economic stability within the country as the fighting stops the economic environment will become regressive “as the Taliban has no plan to develop the region.”

While Mills added that the modern Taliban were more progressive in their rhetoric it remains to be seen whether they will continue along a more liberal pathway.

To read the full analysis here, please consider subscribing to News24.

President of the Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, writes in Business Day that the failure of the entire Afghanistan withdrawal is not the decision to leave but the way in which it has been executed.

Bremmer points to four failures that he believes the US committed, namely military intelligence, co-ordination, planning, and communications. Bremmer writes that the US military intelligence was of the assessment that Kabul could withstand the Taliban for 2-3 years.

“Once the Taliban’s offensive kicked into high gear, the intelligence assessment dropped to 2-3 days. Two facts here are truly staggering: the US spent 20 years and $88bn training an Afghan force that refused to fight; and, after 20 years of personally training Afghans, the US still didn’t understand (or didn’t want to understand) their true capabilities and will to fight.”

Here’s a roundup of the most interesting opinions and analyses:

Sunday Times
Was Biden weak or is he doing a Ramaphosa and playing the long game? – Tony Leon

Daily Maverick
The Marikana Memorial Lecture: Lessons we learnt from that fateful day – Mamphela Ramphele
The genie is out of the bottle: Zondo evidence strips bare the great Ramaphosa myth – Leon Schreiber

News24 / Fin24
Was Treasury being neutralised under Zuma? Zondo missed a chance to probe – Jabulani Sikhakhane (for subscribers)
Lots of vaccines but no arms to jab them into – why are our vaccination sites empty? – Mandy Wiener (for subscribers)

Business Day
The ANC’s loss of informal power – Gareth van Onselen (for subscribers)
Was the state capture inquiry worth it? – John Dludlu (for subscribers)

Financial Mail
Is it appropriate to ask someone if they’ve been vaccinated? – Sarah Buitendach

The Citizen
Slamming ‘vaccine apartheid’ export not compatible with empty jab sites – Editorial (for subscribers)

EWN
Zambia’s 7th president, Hakainde Hichilema, has his work cut out – Mubanga Lumpa

Daily Friend
Afghanistan’s Fall to the Taliban: The Consequences of Long Wars –  Jonathan Katzenellenbogen

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