AFP

If rising seas engulf the Maldives and Tuvalu, will those countries be wiped off the map? And what happens to their citizens?

The prospect is no longer science fiction as global warming gathers pace, posing an unprecedented challenge to the international community, and threatening entire peoples with the loss of their land and identity.

“This is the biggest tragedy that a people, a country, a nation can face,” Mohamed Nasheed, former president of the Maldives, told AFP.

According to UN climate experts, sea levels have already risen 15 to 25 cm (six to 10 inches) since 1900, and the pace of rise is accelerating, especially in some tropical areas.

If warming trends continue, the oceans could rise by nearly one additional meter (39 inches) around the Pacific and Indian Ocean islands by the end of the century.

This is still below the highest point of the smallest, flattest island states, but rising seas will be accompanied by an increase in storms and tidal surges: Salt contamination to water and land will make many atolls uninhabitable long before they are covered over by the sea.

According to a study cited by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, five nations (the Maldives, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, Nauru and Kiribati) may become uninhabitable by 2100, creating 600,000 stateless climate refugees.

– ‘Legal fiction’ –

It is an unprecedented situation. States have, of course, been wiped off the map by wars. But “we haven’t had a situation where existing states have completely lost territory due to a physical event, or events, like sea-level rise, or severe weather events,” noted Sumudu Atapattu, of the University of Wisconsin in Madison.

But the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, a reference on the subject, is clear: A state consists of a defined territory, a permanent population, a government and the capacity to interact with other states. So if the territory is swallowed up, or no one can live on what is left of it, at least one of the criteria falls.

“The other thing that I argue is that statehood is a fiction, legal fiction we created for purposes of international law. So we should be able to come up with another fiction to encompass these deterritorialized states,” Atapattu added.

That is the idea behind the “Rising Nations” initiative launched in September by several Pacific governments: “convince members of the UN to recognize our nation, even if we are submerged under water, because that is our identity,” the prime minister of Tuvalu, Kausea Natano, explained to AFP.

Some people are already thinking about how these Nation-States 2.0 might work.

“You could have land somewhere, people somewhere else, and government in the third place,” Kamal Amakrane, managing director of the Global Centre for Climate Mobility at Columbia University, told AFP.

This would first require a “political declaration” by the UN, then a “treaty” between the threatened state and a “host state,” ready to receive the government in exile in a kind of permanent embassy. The population, which might be in that state or even a different one, would then have dual nationality.

Amakrane, a former UN official, also draws attention to an ambiguity in the Montevideo Convention: “When you speak about territory, is it dry or wet territory?”

– Humans ‘are so ingenious’ –

With 33 islands scattered over 3.5 million square kilometers (1.3 million square miles) in the Pacific, Kiribati, tiny in terms of land area, has one of the largest exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the world.

If this maritime sovereignty were preserved, then a state would not disappear, some experts say.

While some islets are already being engulfed as shorelines recede, freezing the EEZs would preserve access to vital resources.

In an August 2021 declaration, the members of the Pacific Islands Forum, including Australia and New Zealand, proclaimed that their maritime zones “shall continue to apply, without reduction, notwithstanding any physical changes connected to climate change-related sea level rise.” 

But even with rising ocean levels, some would simply not consider leaving their threatened country.

“Human beings are so ingenious, they will find floating ways… to live exactly in this location,” says Nasheed, the Maldives’ former leader, suggesting people could resort to floating cities.

How these states would find resources for such projects is unclear. The question of financing the “loss and damage” caused by the impacts of global warming will be a burning issue at COP27 in Egypt in November.

Even as experts like Amakrane defend “the right to remain” for people who don’t want to leave their heritage, he adds: “You always need to have a plan B.”

In this vein, he has called for launching “as soon as possible” a “political” process to preserve the future of uninhabitable states, “because it gives hope to people.”

Otherwise, he warns, the current state of uncertainty “creates bitterness and disarray, and with that, you kill a nation, a people.”

There are no pearls growing on the oyster reefs in San Diego Bay, but scientists hope they will yield an even more valuable treasure: protection against coastal erosion wrought by rising sea levels.

Thousands of the tiny mollusks have begun growing on the artificial reefs dropped in the bay as part of a plan to mitigate damage in California’s far south.

“We look at numerous different ways to help combat sea-level rise, and these reef balls are one of the tools in our toolbox to do that,” Eileen Maher, director of environmental conservation at the Port of San Diego, told AFP. 

The port implanted 360 structures last December, along a peninsula wedged between the salt marshes of Southern California and the Coronado peninsula — home to the naval air base that inspired “Top Gun.”

These hemispheres weigh 300 pounds (135 kilograms) and look like huge thimbles.

They are made from a mixture of cement, sand and crushed oyster shells — a crucial ingredient that attracts living oysters to make their home there.

After 10 months in the water, the reefs are covered with a greenish silt, which hides thousands of still-microscopic oysters, says Maher.  

Eventually, the dozen scientists working on this pilot project hope to see the formation of real oyster reefs, which they believe will have a genuine impact on their local environment.

– Miniature filters –

The reefs are much more than a natural bulwark against tidal erosion; their bivalve occupants are all miniature filtration plants that are essential to the marine ecosystem.  

That’s because to capture the nutrients an oyster needs to survive, each one filters around 50 gallons (190 liters) of water every day, said Maher. 

“They help remove that turbidity out of the water and help clean the water, which will provide additional benefits to eelgrass, the submerged aquatic vegetation,” she said.

“The more eelgrass sits in the bay, the less chance there is of the shoreline eroding, because it helps — any plant will help prevent shorelines from eroding.”

And like the oysters, these long-filament seagrass beds will also provide a crucial food source for the 80 species of fish and 300 varieties of birds that make their home in the area.

– Flooding and erosion –

By 2050, sea levels around California are expected to have risen 20 centimeters (eight inches), according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) study released early this year.  

This would drastically increase the frequency of flooding on the West Coast, which will also occur more often due to storms and heavy rainfall events exacerbated by human-caused climate change. 

And rising seas will worsen the erosion that threatens California’s coastline. 

Around San Diego, this future is already apparent.

To the south, the streets of Imperial Beach are regularly flooded during high tides. An hour’s drive to the north, the rail line that carries the “Pacific Surfliner” has just been closed at San Clemente, where the rocks that support it are sinking because of erosion. 

In this context, “We have to make sure that we’re resilient,” said Jason Giffen, vice president of planning and environment for the Port of San Diego. 

The $1.3 million oyster reef project is being evaluated over five years. Similar schemes have been established in San Francisco and New York.

The oyster barriers work only in areas of shallow water, Giffen said.

Elsewhere, the port is exploring other solutions. 

In the northern part of the bay, small hollow reinforcements have been attached to the piers.

They not only offer stability but provide refuge to algae, fish and shellfish, helping to bolster biodiversity.

Currently, about 70 percent of the shoreline around San Diego Bay has some type of artificially contructed rock protection.

“We can look at replacing in the long run that infrastructure with something that’s more biologically and environmentally sensitive and actually would be a value-add in terms of environmental quality,” said Giffen.

Hurricane Julia raked across Nicaragua Sunday, lashing the country with winds and heavy rain and bringing potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to much of Central America and southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 85 miles (140 kilometers) per hour when the storm made landfall near the Laguna de Perlas area at 0715 GMT, the country’s weather agency said.

By midday, the fifth Atlantic hurricane of the season had weakened to a tropical storm with top sustained winds of nearly 60 miles per hour as it churned westward across Nicaragua, unleashing a dangerous storm surge along the coast, damaging homes in the country’s interior and leaving some towns incommunicado.

“It’s still raining, water has surrounded us, we have been without power and water since early morning, several houses are without roofs and many trees are down on the road,” Julio Hernandez, a resident of Rio Blanco, in central Nicaragua, told AFP.

The country was on high alert, with civil defense brigades helping to clear fallen trees from roads and watch for flooding in coastal towns and mountain villages. No fatalities have been reported.

But the US National Hurricane Center warned that Julia, whose center passed over the Central American isthmus into the eastern Pacific ocean Sunday night, was still packing a punch, not just for Nicaragua but for neighboring countries.

“Heavy rainfall with a risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides to continue across Central America and southern Mexico through Tuesday,” the NHC said.

– ‘We have to prepare’ –

Maintaining its tropical storm strength, Julia is forecast to produce five to 10 inches (12.7 to 25.4 centimeters) of rain in Nicaragua and El Salvador, with isolated pockets receiving as much as 15 inches.

Hours earlier in Bluefields, Nicaragua, one of the main coastal towns buffeted by the storm, fishermen had been busy safeguarding their boats as people rushed to buy groceries and withdraw money from ATMs.

Hurricane-force winds and heavy rains began to be felt around midnight, according to AFP photographers in the city, while reports detailed detached roofs, fallen trees and power outages.

Before reaching Nicaragua, Julia passed over a trio of Colombian islands, an environment ministry official told AFP, causing rain and lightning in the country’s north.

Julia was a Category 1 hurricane, on the low side of the five-tier Saffir-Simpson wind scale, when it roared ashore in Nicaragua.

Authorities have evacuated some 6,000 people in Laguna de Perlas, in the Miskito keys located off the coast, and in other zones, and dozens of storm shelters were set up in schools.

“We have to prepare with food, plastic, a little bit of everything, because we don’t know what’s going to happen,” Javier Duarte, a cabinetmaker in Bluefields, told AFP.

The municipality of some 60,000 inhabitants has many flimsy structures. By mid-morning, telephone communications were knocked out.

Julia’s arrival in Central America comes less than two weeks after deadly Hurricane Ian crashed into the southeastern US state of Florida as one of the most powerful US hurricanes on record.

The Category 4 storm flattened entire neighborhoods on the Sunshine State’s southwest coast. More than 100 people were killed, according to US media.

Climate change is increasing the temperature of ocean surface layers, which generates more powerful and wetter storms, according to experts.

A landslide in central Venezuela left at least 22 people dead and more than 50 missing after a river overflowed, officials said Sunday, in the latest deadly disaster caused by heavy rains to hit the country. 

Dozens of people have died in recent months in the crisis-hit South American nation as a result of historically high precipitation.

“We are seeing very significant damage here, human losses: so far, we have already found 22 dead, there are more than 52 people missing,” Vice President Delcy Rodriguez told local media at the scene in the town of Las Tejerias. “We are working to find these people.”

Houses and businesses were destroyed and felled trees littered the town’s streets, which were covered with mud and debris, including splintered wood, household items and mangled cars.

“The village is lost. Las Tejerias is lost,” 55-year-old resident Carmen Melendez, who has lived her whole life in the town 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the capital, Caracas, in Aragua state, told AFP.

Around a thousand people had joined the rescue efforts, Interior and Justice Minister Remigio Ceballos told AFP, as he also worked at the site.

Local residents dug through the remains of battered homes looking for loved ones, while search teams arrived with dogs hoping to find survivors trapped in the rubble. 

A butcher shop that had closed due to the pandemic and which was due to reopen Monday was buried in muddy sediment that caked the refrigerators and everything else inside. 

“We were waiting for the meat to be shipped in — to start after two years closed,” said Ramon Arvelo, one of the workers who was helping remove mud. 

“I never thought that something of this magnitude could happen; it’s a really big deal,” said Loryis Verenzuela, 50, as she looked out at the devastation through tears.

– Record rain –

“We have a huge landslide as a result of the changing climate,” Ceballos said, referring to the effects of Hurricane Julia, which passed just north of Venezuela the night before. 

“There was a record rainfall,” he added as he surveyed the disaster site — as much rain in one day as is usually seen in one month. 

“These strong rains saturated the ground,” he said. 

Images taken by rescue teams’ drones showed huge amounts of earth piled up in the streets as residents had tried to shovel out the meters of mud that flowed into their houses. 

President Nicolas Maduro declared three days of national mourning for the victims, while Venezuelans took to social media to offer assistance to the town.

Caracas baseball team Los Leones said they would organize a collection for the victims, asking for “non-perishable foods, water and clothes.”

The landslide, caused by the biggest river flood in the area in 30 years, is the worst so far this year in Venezuela, which has seen historic rain levels in recent months. 

In August, at least 15 people died in the Venezuelan Andes after heavy rains triggered mud and rock slides.

And in September, at least eight people died when floods from intense rains flowed through a religious retreat in the western part of the country.

In 1999, huge landslides killed some 10,000 people in the state of Vargas, north of Caracas.