AFP

American employers slowed the pace of hiring in August after the surprising surge in the prior month and the jobless rate edged up, according to government data released Friday, which could offer the central bank some relief that its inflation-fighting efforts are working.

The Federal Reserve is paying close attention to the progression of the hot job market, looking for signs of easing as it tries to cool the economy with steep interest rate hikes to tamp down inflation which has reached a 40-year high.

While the data showed wages continued to rise, the unemployment rate ticked up as more workers joined the labor force, a welcome development that could allow the Fed to opt for a smaller move later this month after two consecutive super-sized rate increases.

President Joe Biden, who has been riding a wave of legislative and economic victories, cheered the latest report.

“More great news: Our jobs market remains strong. Even more Americans are coming back to work,” Biden tweeted.

Even with the slowing pace, the job gains bring employment above the pre-pandemic level, the Labor Department said in the closely watched monthly report.

The US economy added 315,000 jobs last month, the report said, which was in line with what economists were expecting after 526,000 hires in July.

The unemployment rate moved back up to 3.7 percent, after dipping to 3.5 percent in the prior month, according to the data. And the labor force participation rate rose three-tenths to 62.4 percent.

But wages continued to climb in August, as average hourly earnings rose another 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $32.36 — slower from the pace in recent months. Over the past 12 months, worker pay has increased by 5.2 percent.

Continued upward pressure is a cause for concern since the Fed fears it could lead to a wage-price spiral and push inflation higher.

Surging inflation, exacerbated by high energy prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as supply chain struggles and Covid-lockdowns in China, has prompted the Fed to raise the benchmark borrowing rate four times this year, including giant 0.75 percentage point increases in June and July.

However, the latest data “may tip the scale towards a 50-basis point rate hike” at the September 20-21 meeting, said Rubeela Farooqi of High Frequency Economics, although the next report on consumer price inflation also will be a key factor. 

Still, she said “these data are not going to change the Fed’s view that policy needs to move to a restrictive stance over coming months.”

Diane Swonk of KPMG agreed.

“The Fed is committed to reducing the demand for workers and increasing labor supply, via a much larger rise in the unemployment rate than we saw today,” she said in an analysis.

But other analysts see the central bankers on track for a third consecutive three-quarter point rate hike.

In July, there were still more than 11 million job openings, or two for every job seeker. 

– Soft landing possible –

US GDP contracted in the first two quarters of 2022, which is commonly viewed as a sign of a recession, but the robust job market defies that definition.

Companies have faced a labor shortage for months, prompting them to offer higher wages, which is in turn driving up prices. And there are signs firms are “hoarding” workers — holding onto seasonal employees for fear they might not be able to replace them later.

Fed officials have made it clear in repeated statements that they will continue to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even if monthly data show some signs of progress.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hammered home this point last week at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, warning of “pain” ahead for American households and businesses.

The concern is that the aggressive actions will tip the world’s largest economy into recession.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that although it will be difficult, she remains “hopeful that we can achieve a soft landing.”

But she acknowledged in an interview on MSNBC that “bringing down inflation is clearly a key priority.”

Yellen noted that “nearly 800,000 workers rejoined the labor market in August” which is an encouraging sign even amid an expected slowing of the economy.

“That’s important because it means the growth in our economy isn’t creating pressure on inflation,” she said.

Russia has halted gas deliveries to Germany via a key pipeline an indefinite period after saying Friday it had found problems in a key piece of equipment, a development that will worsen Europe’s energy crisis.

Russian gas giant Gazprom said Friday that the Nord Stream pipeline due to reopen at the weekend would remain shut until a turbine is repaired.

In a statement, Gazprom indicated it had discovered “oil leaks” in a turbine during a planned three-day maintenance operation.

Gazprom added that “until it is repaired… the transport of gas via Nord Stream is completely suspended”.

Resumption of deliveries via the pipeline which runs from near St Petersburg to Germany under the Baltic Sea, had been due to resume on Saturday. 

Gazprom said it had discovered the problems while carrying out maintenance with representatives of Siemens, which manufactured the turbine in a compressor station that pushes gas through the pipeline.

On its Telegram page it published a picture of cables covered in a brown liquid.

Earlier in the day, the Kremlin warned the future operation of the Nord Stream pipeline, one of Gazprom’s major supply routes, was at risk due to a lack of spare parts.

“There are no technical reserves, only one turbine is working,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

“So the reliability of the operation, of the whole system, is at risk,” he said, adding that it was “not through the fault” of Russian energy giant Gazprom.

Following the imposition of economic sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has reduced or halted supplies to different European nations, causing energy prices to soar.

The Kremlin has blamed the reduction of supplies via Nord Stream on European sanctions which it says have blocked the return of a Siemens turbine that had been undergoing repairs in Canada.

Germany, which is where the turbine is located now, has said Moscow is blocking the return of the critical piece of equipment.

Berlin has previously accused Moscow of using energy as a weapon.

The announcement by Gazprom comes the same day as the G7 nations said they would work to quickly implement a price cap on Russian oil exports, a move which would starve the Kremlin of critical revenue for its war effort.

Gazprom also announced the suspension of gas supplies to France’s main provider Engie from Thursday after it failed to pay for all deliveries made in July.

– ‘Much better position’ –

As winter approaches, European nations have been seeking to completely fill their gas reserves, secure alternative supplies, and put into place plans to reduce consumption. 

A long-term halt to Russian gas supplies would complicate efforts by some nations to avoid shortages and rationing, however.

Germany said Friday its gas supplies were secure despite the halt to deliveries via Nord Stream.

“The situation on the gas market is tense, but security of supply is guaranteed,” a spokeswoman for the economy ministry said in a statement. 

The spokeswoman did not comment on the “substance” of Gazprom’s announcement earlier Friday but said Germany had “already seen Russia’s unreliability in the past few weeks”.

German officials have in recent times struck a more positive tone about the coming winter.

Before the latest shutdown, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany was now “in a much better position” in terms of energy security, having achieved its gas storage targets far sooner than expected.

Europe as a whole has also been pushing ahead with filling its gas storage tanks, while fears over throttled supplies have driven companies to slash their energy usage.

Germany’s industry consumed 21.3 percent less gas in July than the average for the month from 2018 to 2021, said the Federal Network Agency.

Agency chief Klaus Mueller has said such pre-emptive action “could save Germany from a gas emergency this winter”.

Europe as a bloc meanwhile has been preparing to take emergency action to reform the electricity market in order to bring galloping prices under control. 

Fear of shortages of natural gas has driven futures contracts for electricity in France and Germany to record levels.

European consumers are also bracing for huge power bills as utilities pass on their higher energy costs.

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G7 industrialised powers vowed Friday to move urgently towards implementing a price cap on Russian oil imports in a bid to cut off a major source of funding for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

The G7 said it was working towards a “broad coalition” of support for the measure but officials in France urged caution, saying a final decision could only be taken once all 27 members of the European Union had given their assent.

Households on the continent have borne the brunt of rising energy prices, with governments under pressure to alleviate the pain of the resulting high inflation.

“Russia is benefitting economically from the uncertainty on energy markets caused by the war and is making big profits from the export of oil and we want to counter that decisively,” German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said in a press conference after the move was announced.

The aim of the price cap on oil exports was to “stop an important source of financing for the war of aggression and contain the rise in global energy prices”, he added.

Ahead of Friday’s decision, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov sounded a clear warning.

The adoption of a price cap “will lead to a significant destabilisation of the oil markets,” and force American and European consumers to pay the price, he said.

And Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had warned on Thursday that Moscow would “simply not supply oil and petroleum products to companies or states that impose restrictions,” according to Russian news agencies.

– ‘Powerful tool’ –

At a summit in June, the G7 leaders agreed to work towards implementing the ceiling on crude sales.

In their statement, finance ministers from the G7 said they would “urgently work on the finalisation and implementation” of the long-considered measure, without specifying the cap level.

The price cap was “one of the most powerful tools we have to fight inflation and protect workers and businesses in the United States”, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement Friday. 

She said the measure already was beginning to influence prices, with countries that have not yet committed to join the cap able to negotiate lower prices from Russia.

“We’re already seeing this initiative pay off because countries that are buying Russian oil are signing deals with Russia to sell oil at greatly discounted prices,” Yellen said on MSNBC.

She said the capped price “will be set at a level that will continue to make it profitable for Russia to produce,” rather than follow through on Moscow’s threat to shut-in their oil and keep it off world markets.

The G7 move would block Russia from getting any kind of service, including maritime insurance, on its petroleum shipments unless the product is sold at or below the cap, she explained.

And Yellen noted that G7 countries provide the vast majority of such services, including maritime insurance, 90 percent of which come from Britain and the EU. 

A senior US Treasury official told reporters that the cap would include three prices, one for crude oil and two for refined petroleum products.

The French finance ministry said technical work on the price cap was still in progress.

“It is clear that no final decision can be taken until we have consulted and obtained unanimous support from all 27 member states of the European Union,” it said.

“We support all measures that reduce the income that Russia derives from the sale of oil,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire added.

EU Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said the bloc aims to find a deal by December 5 for crude oil and February 5 for petroleum products.

– ‘Broad coalition’ –

The G7 also voiced ambition to extend the measure beyond the bloc, saying it was seeking to form a “broad coalition” of support for the oil price cap to “maximise” the effectiveness of the measure.

The ministers urged “all countries that still seek to import Russian oil and petroleum products to commit to doing so only at prices at or below the price cap”.

The push to get as many countries as possible to go along with the cap is expected to be a key topic for discussion by leaders at the G20 summit in Bali on November 15 and 16.

The initial cap would be set “at a level based on a range of technical inputs” the G7 ministers said, adding that its effectiveness would be “closely monitored”.

Analysts warned, however, that the cap may yet fuel another rise in prices.

The cap would introduce new risks for the oil market by “potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies”, Capital Economics analyst Liam Perch said in June. “This could push global energy prices up further.”

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