US Business

The war is not over, but Ukraine’s finance minister says the first signs of economic recovery are emerging after Russian troops retreated away from the capital and northern areas.

“The war continues but we are not seeing the same level of escalation as we saw in the first two months,” Finance Minister Sergiy Marchenko told AFP in an interview in his Kyiv office, decorated with Ukraine’s blue and yellow flag.

“In the first two months we saw attacks and bombings of large cities,” Marchenko said. “Now the military front has been localised to specific territories.”

Already one of Europe’s poorest countries before the Russian invasion beganon February 24, Ukraine’s economy is now in shambles.

Cities have been levelled by fighting, infrastructure is shattered and over six million people have left Ukraine. A Russian blockade has prevented Ukraine to use its ports to ship its key agricultural exports such as wheat and sunflower oil.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have forecast that the Ukrainian economy will shrink by between 35 and 45 percent this year.

Marchenko said gross domestic product could contract by as much as 50 percent, with the overall damage from the conflict totalling $600 billion.

Customs duty revenues fell 70 percent compared to pre-war levels and tax collection dropped 25-30 percent. Exports and imports fell by almost half and inflation topped 16 percent in April from a year ago, Marchenko said.

– ‘A way to survive’ –

After fierce Ukrainian resistance forced Russian troops to pull away from areas outside of Kyiv and from northern Ukraine, many residents have returned to the capital and businesses have reopened.

Ukraine’s central bank has seen “first signs of revival” in April and May, Marchenko said.

“Consumer demand is rising,” said Marchenko, who sported jeans and a mustard-coloured hoodie for the interview as — like other Ukrainian officials — the 41-year-old minister has traded his formal suit for more casual wear during the war.

“As of today, 37 embassies have returned to Kyiv and it gives a signal to citizens to return gradually to Kyiv and renew economic activity,” he added.

With heavy fighting continuing in the country’s east and south, many companies have relocated to western Ukraine to keep their businesses running. 

If no default on the payment of the foreign debt or even its rescheduling is envisaged by Kyiv, “we need $5 billion a month to cover the budget deficit,” the minister said. 

His priority is now to ensure the flow of permanent international financial aid. 

“We are asking for a high level of financial support but the price is also high. This for us is a way to survive,” Marchenko said. 

Facing the Kremlin’s advancing forces, the economist said Kyiv is “now an outpost for democracy” and defeat is not an option. 

“We cannot lose this war and we need the arms, finances and sanctions.”

– ‘Banal robbery’ –

Vast amounts of funds are needed not only for the war effort, but also to rebuild Ukraine. 

President Volodymyr Zelensky has already called for a new Marshall Plan — the US economic aid programme for the reconstruction of Europe after World War II — for his country. 

Marchenko said he backed using Russian assets seized abroad to rebuild Ukraine — an idea floated by several Western countries, including the United States.

He also accused Russian forces of mass “robbery” in Ukraine, saying Russian soldiers have stolen from ordinary people’s homes as well as grain and “other mineral, raw, intellectual resources.”

“We are dealing with bandits who entered the house and are taking away everything they like,” he said, calling it the “banal robbery of a country.” 

Marchenko said it is Ukraine’s critical infrastructure — such as roads, bridges and power supplies — that has suffered most and that needs to be rebuilt first. 

He wants people to return to territories retaken by Kyiv and “start a normal life with electricity, water and gas supplies”.

Asian equities were mostly up Friday following a tumultuous trading period on Wall Street, but analysts said the outlook remained bleak as inflation, the Ukraine war and Chinese lockdowns weigh on sentiment.

World markets have been volatile for much of 2022, with investors fretting about supply chain snarls due to China’s Covid curbs and as Europe weighs cutting out Russian oil over Moscow’s invasion.

The Federal Reserve last week announced its largest rate hike since 2000 to slow surging inflation and signalled that similar increases were likely in the coming months — a possibility that sent stocks on a rollercoaster.

But after Fed chief Jerome Powell on Thursday said the United States was not actively considering a steeper 75-basis-point move, markets experienced a bounce in Asia. 

“Asia-Pacific equities are staging a relief rally today after Wall Street stabilised late in the session as Jerome Powell calmed nerves over potential 0.75 percent rate hikes,” said Jeffrey Halley of OANDA. 

However, he warned that the positive showing should be taken with a grain of salt. 

“Nothing has materially changed in the world from yesterday, and if anything, Russia/Europe risks are increasing,” he said.

“The rally today looks more like a technical rebound after a torrid week than a structural turn in sentiment.”

After a bruising day on Wall Street — with the Dow falling for the sixth straight session — Asian equities were higher Friday. Japan and Hong Kong closed with a two percent bump. 

Frankfurt, London and Paris all opened higher as well, while oil remained up, with the US benchmark crude WTI trading at more than $106 a barrel.

“Such intraday volatility and sentiment flip-flopping is indicative of nervous investors and in itself, a bearish signal,” said Lewis Grant of Federated Hermes Limited. 

“As long as the war continues and macro pressures persist, it is likely that both energy names and value stocks will remain relative safe-havens for fully-invested, long-only equity investors.”

– Crypto seesaw –

Cryptocurrencies also saw great volatility this week. Bitcoin on Thursday tumbled below $27,000 — its lowest level since late 2020 — but by Friday its value was holding steady above $30,000.

Its crash was fuelled by the collapse of two so-called “stablecoin” cryptocurrencies — TerraUSD and Tether — which proved to be anything but stable, leaving investors panicked. 

While the digital currency market had stabilised by Friday, Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said “the seven-day moves in some of the ‘other crypto experiments’ on monster volume are insane and increasingly difficult to watch”.

– Key figures at around 0830 GMT –

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 2.7 percent at 19,898.77 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.9 percent at 3,084.28 (close)  

London – FTSE 100: UP 1.3 percent at 7,331.28

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 2.6 percent at 26,427.65 (close)

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.7 percent at $106.86 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.9 percent at $108.36 per barrel

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0404 from $1.0382 at 2100 GMT Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2205 from $1.2199

Euro/pound: UP at 85.26 pence from 85.08 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 128.82 yen from 129.97 yen

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 31,730.30 (close)

Japanese auto giant Honda said Friday net profit rose 7.6 percent in the financial year to March, benefiting from strong motorbike sales and a weaker yen.

The company also expects net profit to remain steady in the current financial year, even as the global microchip shortage and virus-related supply chain disruption cause headaches for the car industry.

Honda said annual net profit rose 7.6 percent to 707 billion yen ($5.5 billion) in 2021-22 and issued a forecast of 710 billion yen net profit for the year to March 2023.

Sales last year were up 10.5 percent, it said, “due mainly to increased sales revenue in motorcycle business and financial services business operations as well as positive foreign currency translation effects.”

But “despite shifting to a recovery trend, the economic environment surrounding the company, its consolidated subsidiaries and its affiliates… continued to be difficult due to the impact of (the) semiconductor supply shortage, and increases in raw material costs, among other factors.”

Honda said its factories in Japan and overseas had been forced to suspend or reduce output due to supply chain and staffing issues related to Covid-19.

Toyota, the world’s top-selling carmaker, this week also posted a record full-year net profit, helped by strong sales and a cheaper yen.

The currency has touched 20-year lows against the dollar in recent weeks, inflating the value of Japanese automakers’ overseas profits.  Some analysts believe this will help them offset their current challenges.

In April, Honda said it will invest nearly $40 billion into electric vehicle technology over the next decade as it works towards switching all sales away from traditional fuel cars.

Takashi Murakami is known for blending pop art and Asian fine arts, but for his latest exhibition in New York, he is moving into the metaverse.

At the show “An Arrow Through History” that opened this week at Manhattan’s Gagosian Gallery, Murakami builds bridges from traditional fine arts to Japanese pop art to buzzy NFTs — the digital tokens that represent original artwork.

Murakami told AFP he is concerned that younger generations are screen-obsessed and “don’t understand the contemporary art history.”

“They can enjoy very few things, but with the plus of augmented reality, maybe the young people open their eyes more and then step into the contemporary art scene,” the 60-year-old Japanese artist said.

Of late, athletes, artists, celebrities and tech stars have been hawking NFTs, which use the same blockchain technology as cryptocurrencies.

“When I work on a creative production, I make no distinction between digital and analog,” Murakami said in a statement from Gagosian. 

“I’m always working in the context of contemporary art, and that context is all about whether I can be involved in events that manage to trigger a cognitive revolution.”

– ‘Into the metaverse’ –

In one piece, Murakami painted thick canvases and wooden structures the blue and white patterns of fish, inspired by Chinese porcelain vases dating back to the Yuan Dynasty (1279-1368).

Using Snapchat and an augmented reality filter, visitors can be immersed in the exhibition room via their phones, standing among digital images of fish that swim among the physically real works of art.

“Japanese culture originally came from the Eurasian continent, and my concept has been to go beyond from there into the metaverse, shooting through the history of art with a single arrow,” Murakami said in the statement.

The metaverse is an immersive virtual reality which is accessible with augmented or virtual reality glasses, and is a concept that has experienced a boost in recent years.

Stuck at home during the coronavirus pandemic, Murakami told AFP that “I was watching the reality in my house, so that was a very monumental moment.”

“For us it was getting super stressful every day, we could not go outside,” he said — but his kids could enjoy VR.

“That meant I had to change the mind, to fit in with the next generation of my kids,” he said. “This is my first answer — the show.”

Murakami is also set to open a special exhibition at The Broad contemporary art museum in Los Angeles, titled “Takashi Murakami: Stepping on the Tail of a Rainbow,” which will include immersive environments and run from May 21 until September 25.

Asian equities were mostly up Friday following a tumultuous trading period on Wall Street, which rebounded at the close after investors calmed down about US policies to counter surging inflation.

World markets have been volatile for much of 2022 owing to China’s Covid-19 lockdowns, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and surging inflation weighing on consumer sentiment.

The Federal Reserve last week had announced its largest rate hike since 2000 and signalled that similar increases were likely in the coming months — a possibility that sent markets on a rollercoaster. 

“Macro-economic concerns have continued to weigh heavily on the equity markets this week, as stagflation and recession fears continue to dampen investor enthusiasm,” said Lewis Grant of Federated Hermes Limited.

He added that the fears have been echoed in forecasts by major companies, with a large number of firms citing supply chain concerns. 

Wall Street was mixed Thursday after another day of volatile trading, with the Dow falling for the sixth straight session but the Nasdaq mustering a small gain.

The small rebound on the tech-rich Nasdaq came after Fed Reserve chief Jerome Powell — confirmed Thursday by the Senate for a second term — expressed confidence that the economy is strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policies. 

According to Bloomberg, Powell reaffirmed that the Fed was likely to raise rates by a half point but isn’t “actively considering” a 75-basis point move.

In Asia, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore and Sydney opened higher on Friday, while Wellington traded in the negatives.

Dread has not only sent traditional markets seesawing, but the cryptocurrency realm also saw great volatility this week. 

Bitcoin tumbled to the lowest level since late 2020, following a dramatic collapse in some so-called stablecoin cryptocurrencies — TerraUSD and Tether.

The two stablecoins — which are supposed to be pegged to the dollar — proved to be anything but, as their values collapse. 

While the digital currency market stabilised by Friday, Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said “the 7-day moves in some of the ‘other crypto experiments’ on monster volume are insane and increasingly difficult to watch”.

Bitcoin slumped below $27,000 before recovering, and traded at over $30,000 by mid-Friday.

Oil remained up on Friday, with US benchmark crude WTI trading at more than $107 a barrel.

“As long as the war continues and macro pressures persist, it is likely that both energy names and value stocks will remain relative safe-havens for fully-invested, long-only equity investors,” said Grant of Federated Hermes Limited.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.7 percent at 19,705.86  

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.3 percent at 3,064.32  

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 2.7 percent at 25,421.84 (break)

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.4 percent at $108.90 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.2 percent at $107.36 per barrel

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0387 from $1.0382 at 2100 GMT Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2212 from $1.2199

Euro/pound: DOWN at 85.06 pence from 85.08 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 128.36 yen from 129.97 yen

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 31,730.30 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 1.6 percent at 7,233.34 (close)

Rhiannon Muise graduated from Edge Hill University in northwest England last year with a mountain of student debt, which is growing even larger due to surging inflation.

The 21-year-old dance and drama graduate said it will take a “lifetime” for her to pay back the £45,000 ($55,000) she owes for tuition fees and living expenses, particularly if she stays within her chosen field where salaries can be low.

Muise’s plight echoes that of students across Britain, who are already struggling with a cost-of-living crisis.

Britons heading to university next year face major changes that critics argue will worsen the financial pain.

– Exhausting –

The pressure is “exhausting, especially for someone in their 20s who has just started thinking about their career”, Muise told AFP.

Her current job as Edge Hill student engagement officer pays below the threshold that activates repayments.

UK graduates shoulder more debt than any other developed country, according to House of Commons Library data.

About 1.5 million students borrow nearly £20 billion in loans every year in England alone.

And on average, graduates of 2020 have amassed £45,000 in debt.

Zeno, a 25-year-old student in London who gave only his first name, said he owes just short of £75,000 for his loans.

Unless he “wins the lottery”, he accepts he will probably be paying the money back from his salary for the next 30 years.

– Tuition fees –

University used to be free in the UK, with means-tested grants for the poorest students to cover living costs.

But after the sector was opened up in the 1990s, numbers surged and, despite protests from student bodies, tuition fees have been gradually introduced in the last decade to help universities meet costs.

With education a devolved matter for the governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, different tuition fee arrangements are in place across the UK.

Accommodation and living costs are extra.

In England, undergraduate tuition fees are capped at £9,250 a year for UK and Irish students — up from £3,375 in 2011 when the government cut most ongoing direct public funding. 

The cap in Wales is £9,000 and £4,030 in Northern Ireland. 

Scottish students studying in Scotland pay £1,820 but those from the rest of the UK attending universities north of the border with England pay £9,250.

– Inflation worry –

The picture is further complicated by rocketing inflation because the student loan interest rate is linked to the retail price index (RPI).

Loan interest is calculated by adding up to 3.0 percentage points to the RPI rate.

Inflation however soared to 30-year highs this year, particularly on rocketing energy costs and fallout from the Ukraine conflict.

Graduates could therefore pay an interest rate of 12 percent from September — or more if prices rise even higher.

The UK government plays a large part in student financing, providing loans that only demand repayment when a graduate earns above a threshold of £27,295 per year.

What borrowers repay depends on how much they earn. Unlike private lenders, they have up to 30 years to repay. The debt is cancelled after this time.

“This system is more progressive than in the United States, with generous write-offs for lower-paid graduates,” said Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute in Oxford. 

Current and recent students faced huge upheaval during courses due to coronavirus restrictions, with the pandemic also hitting job opportunities.

A combination of high debt repayments, high cost of living and wages that have failed to keep pace with inflation, add yet more stress.

– Conundrum –

Student finance poses a major conundrum for the public purse because the UK forecasts outstanding loans will top £560 billion by 2050.

From next year, Britain will lower the repayment threshold for new borrowers to £25,000 and lengthen the repayment time from 30 to 40 years.

This will however increase costs for low-earners, while benefiting richer graduates who can pay back more quickly.

The UK government forecasts however that half of new students will repay their loans in full under the new plan.

Student debt has long been a concern in the United States, where the Federal Reserve estimates that it amounts to a staggering $1.76 trillion.

US students on average have outstanding debt of close to $41,000, according to think-tank Education Data Initiative.

President Joe Biden this year extended a moratorium on student loan repayment and interest — and is holding talks over partial debt write-offs.

President Joe Biden on Thursday welcomed Southeast Asian leaders to Washington with promises to support clean energy and maritime security, hoping to showcase a US commitment as China makes wide inroads.

Top leaders from eight of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) flew to Washington for the two-day summit, which opened with a closed-door White House dinner of thyme poached chicken and vanilla ice cream.

The Biden administration, which took office describing China as the top international challenger, is eager to prove it is still prioritizing Asia despite months of intense focus on repelling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The White House announced some $150 million in new initiatives — a modest sum compared with a $40 billion package for Ukraine and with the billions pumped into the region by China, which has also flexed its muscle in the dispute-rife South China Sea.

But the United States said it was working with its private sector and it plans to unveil a broader package, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, when Biden travels next week to Tokyo and Seoul.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, welcoming ASEAN leaders to lunch earlier in the day, drew a link as she encouraged Southeast Asia to stand firm against Russia’s invasion.

“If left unchecked, we leave the door open to additional aggression, including maritime issues and other issues in the South China Sea,” she said.

– ‘Candor’ over rights –

Pelosi called the summit “another manifestation of America’s commitment to be a strong, reliable partner in Southeast Asia.”

In a contrast to China’s hands-off approach, Pelosi said she believed in “candor” and urged the Southeast Asian leaders to respect human rights, voicing particular concern about LGBTQ people.

“Let me be clear: when we hear about torture of LGBTQ people, that is unacceptable to the American people — and continues to be an obstacle to the full respect in our relationship,” she said.

Pelosi did not single out countries but Brunei and Indonesia’s Aceh province have both triggered uproars with laws that allow for physical punishment over consensual gay sex.

In the biggest chunk of the new funding, the White House said it was committing $60 million to new maritime initiatives that will include the deployment of a Coast Guard cutter and personnel to fight crime including illegal fishing. 

The White House said it was also devoting $40 million to invest in clean energy in the climate change-vulnerable region and was working with the private sector to raise up to $2 billion.

Another initiative — launched as Biden separately held a virtual summit on Covid — includes a project to test for emerging respiratory diseases through a new office in Hanoi of the US Centers for Disease Control.

“I hope this meeting can build a momentum for the return of the US presence in the region,” Indonesian President Joko Widodo told a sideline forum of the US-ASEAN Business Council.

– Meeting Myanmar opposition –

Southeast Asia has often been seen as a victim of its own success, with the United States focused elsewhere for lack of pressing problems in the region.

But in Myanmar, once hailed as a democratic success story, the United States has been ratcheting up pressure since the junta in February last year toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government.

The United States symbolically represented Myanmar with an empty chair at the summit.

The democratic leadership in exile was invited to Washington and met Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman but did not represent Myanmar in talks.

The Philippines also did not send its leader and was represented by its foreign minister after holding elections on Monday.

Leaders who are participating include Cambodia’s veteran strongman Hun Sen, who is ASEAN’s current chair, and Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha, the former army chief who led a 2014 coup.

Human Rights Watch said the United States needed to raise democracy in more countries than Myanmar.

“If the US doesn’t publicly raise human rights concerns during meetings, the message will be that human rights abuses are now tolerated in the name of forging alliances to counter China,” said John Sifton, the group’s Asia advocacy director.

The US Senate on Thursday confirmed Jerome Powell to a second term as head of the Federal Reserve, as the central bank ramps up its fight to crush soaring inflation.

The vote came amid inflation that has hit a 40-year high, fueled by the conflict in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as Covid-19 restrictions in China that have raised concerns the global supply snarls may worsen.

The Fed chair has said his primary focus is on getting inflation under control, but acknowledged the effort could be painful.

US President Joe Biden, whose popularity has taken a hit from the soaring inflation and record gasoline prices, has repeatedly said that tackling the issue is primarily a job for the Fed.

“I am pleased to see the Senate take a step forward on my agenda to get inflation under control by confirming my nominees to the Fed,” he said in a statement after the vote.

Powell, who first joined the Fed board in 2012, led the central bank as it slashed the benchmark interest rate to zero at the start of the pandemic in March 2020 and pumped money into the financial system to prevent a severe downturn in the world’s largest economy.

Now, he is overseeing efforts to cool price pressures affecting American families.

The Fed last week announced its largest rate hike since 2000 and signaled similar increases were likely in the coming months.

The challenge for Powell and the Fed is to turn down the heat on inflation without tipping the United States into recession.

While he has expressed confidence the economy is strong enough to withstand the tighter monetary policy, Powell said it will be challenging amid the unprecedented global shocks and “may actually depend on factors that we don’t control.”

In an interview with Marketplace on Thursday, he renewed his warning that “the process of getting inflation down to two percent will also include some pain.”

But “the most painful thing would be if we were to fail to deal with it and inflation were to get entrenched in the economy at high levels.”

– Delayed confirmation –

Powell, a Republican, enjoyed broad bipartisan support in the 80-19 vote — but also bipartisan opposition. Six Democrats voted against him, including progressive senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

“Working families should not bear the cost of fighting inflation,” Warren tweeted after the vote. “As Fed Chair, Jerome Powell must focus on strengthening our economy without slamming the brakes on its growth or hurting families already struggling with higher prices.”

Powell had continued at the helm of the central bank even after his first four-year term officially expired February 4.

His confirmation was delayed by the battle to approve Lisa Cook to join the Fed board — the first Black woman to serve in the post — who was finally confirmed on Tuesday with only Democratic votes.

The Senate late Wednesday also confirmed Philip Jefferson to the board, marking the first time the institution has had more than one Black governor.

With the latest additions, the Fed board will be just one short of its full complement of seven governors. 

In his statement, Biden urged the Senate to confirm his final nominee, Michael Barr, as vice chair for supervision.

The US president’s first pick for the role of top Fed banking cop, Sarah Bloom Raskin, withdrew her name from consideration in March when it became clear she would not have sufficient support due to opposition from Republicans and from a key Democratic lawmaker over her stance on climate change issues in banking supervision.

Cook, a professor of economics and international relations at Michigan State University, and Jefferson, of Davidson College, each have researched inequality in the labor market. 

Powell has repeatedly stressed the importance of ensuring economic opportunities extend to disadvantaged groups — a notable change of focus in an economy where Black workers face far higher unemployment rates than other racial groups.

Jefferson is only the fourth Black man to serve as a Fed governor.