US Business

The longest non-stop flights in the world

Qantas has revealed plans for the world’s longest-duration commercial flight by the end of 2025, ferrying passengers between Sydney and London on Airbus A350s in just over 19 hours.

Only a handful of airlines fly non-stop over such vast distances, which present a host of challenges including the capability of planes, commercial viability, and even the health of crew and passengers.

Here are some of the longest-duration flights in the world today:

Singapore to New York: 18 hrs 40 min

Singapore Airlines Flight SQ24 to New York’s John F. Kennedy International airport is currently the longest commercial journey in the world, taking passengers more than 15,000 kilometres (9,300 miles) from the city-state to the eastern United States on Airbus A350-900s.

It also operates the second-longest journey — Flight SQ22, also on A350-900s, to Newark in the US state of New Jersey is scheduled at 18 hours and 25 minutes.

Qantas will use the A350-1000 variant for its planned Sydney-London flights.

Darwin to London – 17 hrs 55 min

The longest current Qantas route — QF9 — connects Darwin in northern Australia with London daily, with passengers covering almost 14,000 km on Boeing 787 Dreamliners.

The flights were originally operated between London and the western city of Perth, but were moved to Darwin because of Covid-linked travel restrictions in Australia.

Qantas has said it will resume the Perth-London route this year.

Los Angeles to Singapore – More than 17 hrs

Singapore Airlines Flight SQ35 takes passengers more than 14,000 km over the Pacific Ocean from Los Angeles on the US West Coast to the Asian city-state in 17 hours and 10 minutes.

The carrier’s San Francisco-Singapore flight is scheduled at 16 hours and 40 minutes.

New York-Hong Kong in 16-17 hrs?

Cathay Pacific said in March that it was planning to alter its New York-Hong Kong route over the Atlantic instead of the Pacific Ocean, making it a longer journey than Singapore Airlines Flight SQ24 to JFK.

The flight path will cover “just under 9,000 nautical miles” (10,357 miles) — or 16,668 kilometres — in 16 to 17 hours, the airline told AFP in a statement.

It declined to be drawn why its flight path gave a wide berth to Russia’s airspace, which it has previously flown through, according to Bloomberg.

Many airlines have cancelled routes to Russian cities or are avoiding Russian airspace over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Cathay Pacific said the decision was taken because “strong seasonal tailwinds” made the new route more favourable.

Qantas to launch longest non-stop passenger flight

Qantas announced on Monday it will launch the world’s longest non-stop commercial flight, with passengers set to spend 19 hours in the air travelling from Sydney to London by the end of 2025.

After five years of planning, the airline said it was ordering 12 Airbus A350-1000 aircraft to operate the “Project Sunrise” flights to cities including London and New York.

Non-stop flights will start from Sydney by the end of 2025, it said, with long-haul trips later planned to include Melbourne.

“New types of aircraft make new things possible,” said Qantas chairman Alan Joyce, according to a statement.

“The A350 and Project Sunrise will make any city just one flight away from Australia,” he said.

“It’s the final frontier and the final fix for the tyranny of distance.”

Qantas operated research flights for the long-haul route in 2019, including a trial London-Sydney trek of 17,800 kilometres (11,030 miles), which took 19 hours and 19 minutes.

A trial New York-Sydney flight in the same year covered 16,200 kilometres (10,200 miles) and took a little over 19 hours.

Singapore Airlines currently operates the world’s longest non-stop commercial flight from Singapore to New York, covering 16,700 kilometres (10,400 miles) in a little under 19 hours.

Qantas already operates a 14,498-kilometre Perth-London trip that takes 17 hours.

– ‘Maximum comfort’ –

“As you’d expect, the cabin is being specially designed for maximum comfort for long-haul flying,” Joyce said.

Qantas said the new A350 aircraft would be configured for 238 passengers with first-class suites offering a separate bed, recliner chair and wardrobe.

It promised spacier economy sections and a “wellbeing zone” designed for “movement, stretching and hydration”.

Airbus listed the price of the A350-1000 at US$366.5 million (348 million euros) on its 2018 catalogue, the last one it published.

Qantas said it was also ordering 40 A321 XLR and A220 aircraft from Airbus.

In addition, it bought options for another 94 of these planes until the end of 2034.

The A220 models were listed at between US$81 million and US$91.5 million in 2018. The A321 was unveiled after Airbus stopped publishing catalogue prices.

Qantas said the total cost of the deal was a matter of commercial confidence, though it indicated it had obtained a significant discount on the standard price of the aircraft.

“The A320s and A220s will become the backbone of our domestic fleet for the next 20 years, helping to keep this country moving,” Joyce said.

The newer aircraft would reduce emissions by at least 15 percent if running on fossil fuels, and more if using sustainable aviation fuel, he said.

“We have come through the other side of the pandemic a structurally different company,” the airline boss said.

“Our domestic market share is higher and the demand for direct international flights is even stronger than it was before Covid.”

The A350-1000 planes will be powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 turbofan engines, designed to be 25 percent more fuel efficient than the previous generation of aircraft, Qantas said.

Markets drop as US rout, China worries hit sentiment

Asian and European markets fell in holiday-thinned trade Monday following another tech-led rout on Wall Street, with focus on the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hike this week.

Adding to the dour mood was data showing Chinese manufacturing activity shrank last month at its fastest pace since the start of the pandemic owing to Covid-19 lockdowns in the country’s biggest cities.

The government’s refusal to shift from its zero-Covid policy and strict containment measures is fanning fears about the world’s number two economy and key driver of global growth.

Trading floors around the world have been buffeted for months by a perfect storm of crises including China’s lockdowns, surging inflation, Fed plans to hike rates, elevated oil prices and the war in Ukraine.

All eyes are on the US central bank’s policy meeting this week, which is expected to see it hike borrowing costs by half a point — the most since 2000 — and follow it with several more increases before the end of the year.

And now some analysts are predicting it could even announce a three-quarter-point increase at some point as it battles more than 40-year-high inflation.

However, with some commentators warning rates could go as high as three percent, there are also worries the Fed could be too heavy-handed and tip the US economy into recession.

Fed boss Jerome Powell “could cement the view that 50 (basis points) is the new 25, but more worrying for stock pickers, there are lots of QE to unwind”, said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes, referring to the quantitative easing bond-buying programme used by the Fed to keep rates low.

“So, the question is, how much of the impact of the balance sheet runoff” has been priced in.

The prospect of higher borrowing costs has been compounded by a sharp slowdown in China, with lockdowns in the biggest cities including Shanghai slamming output and snarling supply chains.

Data at the weekend showed the country’s manufacturing activity shrank the most it has since February 2020, and the near future does not look promising as officials shut down cinemas and gyms over the May Day holiday.

Beijing on Friday further flagged plans to provide support to the economy and signalled an easing of a painful tech crackdown. But the announcement follows several other recent pledges and traders are yet to see any concrete measures, with most wanting to see a softer approach to controlling the virus.

“We remain deeply concerned about growth,” Nomura Holdings economists said in a note.

“Despite the raft of policy measures announced by the Politburo meeting (Friday), we still believe markets should remain focused on the development of the pandemic and the corresponding zero-Covid strategy. All other policies are of secondary importance.” 

On equity markets, Tokyo, Seoul, Mumbai, Manila and Wellington all fell.

Sydney also retreated, though Qantas rose more than two percent after saying it would launch the world’s longest non-stop commercial flight between Sydney and London by the end of 2025.

Paris and Frankfurt sank at the open, though US futures were in positive territory.

London, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets were closed along with those in Taipei, Singapore, Bangkok and Jakarta.

The struggles in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, led to a drop in prices of the commodity on demand concerns, offsetting worries about supplies from Russia caused by the Ukraine war.

European Union talks to scale back imports of oil from Russia, following embargoes by the United States and Britain, continue to provide support.

“But further gains will be limited to weaker oil demand prospects from China due to the continued expansion of lockdowns and mass testing across the region,” added SPI’s Innes.

– Key figures at around 0720 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.1 percent at 26,818.53 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for a holiday

Shanghai – Composite: Closed for a holiday

London – FTSE 100: Closed for a holiday

Dollar/yen: UP at 130.30 yen from 129.89 yen on Friday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0534 from $1.0550

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2557 from $1.2578

Euro/pound: UP at 83.88 pence from 83.86 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.7 percent at $103.95 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.7 percent at $106.44 per barrel

New York – Dow: DOWN 2.8 percent at 32,977.21 (close)

Japan's ENEOS withdraws from Myanmar gas project

Japanese energy conglomerate ENEOS Holdings said Monday it will withdraw from a gas project in coup-hit Myanmar, days after its Thai and Malaysian partners announced they would pull out.

ENEOS is the latest energy giant to retreat from the Southeast Asian country, whose military has waged a widespread crackdown on dissent since it ousted and detained civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi last year.

The company is involved in the Yetagun project off southern Myanmar along with the Japanese government and Mitsubishi Corporation.

Together they hold a 19.3 percent stake in the gas field, which has been operational for two decades.

ENEOS said it had “decided to withdraw after discussions taking into consideration the country’s current situation, including the social issues, and project economics based on the technical evaluation of Yetagun gas fields”.

“This withdrawal will be effective after approval from the Myanmar government,” it added in a statement.

An official at Japan’s natural resources and energy agency told AFP that the government “takes the same position” as ENEOS, noting the Yetagun project has experienced a reduction in output over the past decade.

Malaysia’s Petronas and Thailand’s oil and gas conglomerate PTTEP also announced their withdrawal on Friday. Petronas subsidiary Carigali holds a roughly 41 percent stake in the Yetagun project, while PTTEP owns 19.3 percent.

More than 1,800 civilians have died in Myanmar during the military crackdown and more than 13,000 have been arrested, according to a local monitoring group.

With the economy tanking and pressure mounting from rights groups, companies from France’s TotalEnergies to British American Tobacco and Norway’s Telenor have upped sticks.

Tokyo is a major provider of economic assistance to Myanmar, and the government has long-standing relations with the country’s military.

After the coup, Japan announced it would halt all new aid, though it stopped short of imposing individual sanctions on military and police commanders.

Asian markets drop as US rout, China worries hit sentiment

Asian markets fell in holiday-thinned trade Monday following another tech-led rout on Wall Street, with focus on the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate hike this week.

Adding to the dour mood was data showing Chinese manufacturing activity shrank last month at its fastest pace since the start of the pandemic owing to Covid lockdowns in the country’s biggest cities.

The government’s refusal to shift from its zero-Covid policy and strict containment measures is fanning fears about the world’s number two economy and key driver of global growth.

Trading floors around the world have been buffeted for months by a perfect storm of crises including China’s lockdowns, surging inflation, Fed plans to hike rates, elevated oil prices and the war in Ukraine.

All eyes are on the US central bank’s policy meeting this week, which is expected to see it hike borrowing costs by half a point — the most since 2000 — and follow it with several more increases before the end of the year.

And now some analysts are predicting it could even announce a three-quarter-point increase at some point as it battles more than 40-year-high inflation.

However, with some commentators warning rates could go as high as three percent, there are also worries the Fed could be too heavy-handed and tip the US economy into recession.

Fed boss Jerome Powell “could cement the view that 50 (basis points) is the new 25, but more worrying for stock pickers, there are lots of QE to unwind”, said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes, referring to the quantitative easing bond-buying programme used by the Fed to keep rates low.

“So, the question is, how much of the impact of the balance sheet runoff” has been priced in.

The prospect of higher borrowing costs has been compounded by a sharp slowdown in China, with lockdowns in the biggest cities including Shanghai slamming output and snarling supply chains.

Data at the weekend showed the country’s manufacturing activity shrank the most it has since February 2020, and the near future does not look promising as officials shut down cinemas and gyms over the May Day holiday.

Beijing on Friday further flagged plans to provide support to the economy and signalled an easing of a painful tech crackdown. But the announcement follows several other recent pledges and traders are yet to see any concrete measures, with most wanting to see a softer approach to controlling the virus.

“We remain deeply concerned about growth,” Nomura Holdings economists said in a note.

“Despite the raft of policy measures announced by the Politburo meeting (Friday), we still believe markets should remain focused on the development of the pandemic and the corresponding zero-Covid strategy. All other policies are of secondary importance.” 

On equity markets, Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul and Wellington all fell, though Manila ticked up.

Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets were closed along with those in Taipei, Singapore, Bangkok and Jakarta.

The struggles in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, led to a drop in prices of the commodity on demand concerns, offsetting worries about supplies from Russia caused by the Ukraine war.

European Union talks to scale back imports of oil from Russia, following embargoes by the United States and Britain, continue to provide support.

“But further gains will be limited to weaker oil demand prospects from China due to the continued expansion of lockdowns and mass testing across the region,” added SPI’s Innes.

– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.5 percent at 26,704.60 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: Closed for a holiday

Shanghai – Composite: Closed for a holiday

Dollar/yen: UP at 130.14 yen from 129.89 yen on Friday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0523 from $1.0550

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2560 from $1.2578

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.77 pence from 83.86 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $103.62 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 1.1 percent at $105.95 per barrel

New York – Dow: DOWN 2.8 percent at 32,977.21 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 7,544.55 (close)

Qantas to launch longest non-stop passenger flight

Qantas announced on Monday it will launch the world’s longest non-stop commercial flight, with passengers set to spend 19 hours in the air traveling from Sydney to London by the end of 2025.

After five years of planning, the airline said it was ordering 12 Airbus A350-1000 aircraft to operate the “Project Sunrise” flights to cities including London and New York.

Non-stop flights will start from Sydney by the end of 2025, it said, with long-haul trips later planned to include Melbourne.

“New types of aircraft make new things possible,” said Qantas chairman Alan Joyce, according to a statement.

“The A350 and Project Sunrise will make any city just one flight away from Australia,” he said.

“It’s the final frontier and the final fix for the tyranny of distance.”

Qantas operated research flights for the long-haul route in 2019, including a trial London-Sydney trek of 17,800 kilometres (11,030 miles), which took 19 hours and 19 minutes.

A trial New York-Sydney flight in the same year covered 16,200 kilometres (10,200 miles) and took a little over 19 hours.

Singapore Airlines currently operates the world’s longest non-stop commercial flight from Singapore to New York, covering 16,700 kilometres (10,400 miles) in a little under 19 hours.

Qantas already operates a 14,498-kilometre Perth-London trip that takes 17 hours.

– ‘Maximum comfort’ –

“As you’d expect, the cabin is being specially designed for maximum comfort for long-haul flying,” Joyce said.

Qantas said the new A350 aircraft would be configured for 238 passengers with first-class suites offering a separate bed, recliner chair and wardrobe.

It promised spacier economy sections and a “wellbeing zone” designed for “movement, stretching and hydration”.

At the same time, Qantas confirmed it was also ordering 40 A321 XLR and A220 aircraft from Airbus. In addition, it bought options for another 94 of these planes until the end of 2034.

“The A320s and A220s will become the backbone of our domestic fleet for the next 20 years, helping to keep this country moving,” Joyce said.

The newer aircraft would reduce emissions by at least 15 percent if running on fossil fuels, and more if using sustainable aviation fuel, he said.

“We have come through the other side of the pandemic a structurally different company,” the airline boss said.

“Our domestic market share is higher and the demand for direct international flights is even stronger than it was before Covid.”

Qantas said the total cost of the deal was a matter of commercial confidence, though it indicated it had obtained a significant discount on the standard price of the aircraft.

The A350-1000 planes will be powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 turbofan engines, designed to be 25 percent more fuel efficient than the previous generation of aircraft, Qantas said.

Kenya boosts minimum wage as inflation bites

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta announced Sunday a 12-percent hike in the minimum wage as the country confronts a surge in the cost of living.

Inflation in the East African economic powerhouse jumped to a seven-month high in April, mainly as a result of skyrocketing fuel and food prices, according to official figures.

“As a caring government, we find there is a compelling case to review the minimum wages so as to cushion our workers against further erosions,” Kenyatta said at a Labour Day rally.

He said the 12 percent increase would come into effect from May 1. It takes the minimum monthly wage from 13,500 Kenyan shillings (about $116.5, 110.5 euros) to 15,120 shillings ($130.5, 124 euros).

However the hike falls far short of the 24 percent that had been sought by the Central Organisation of Trade Unions-Kenya (COTU).

Kenyatta said the high cost of living was due to factors “beyond my control like the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict”.

He castigated rival political leaders — including Deputy President William Ruto — for seeking to blame the government for the economic woes, as the country prepares for crucial elections in August.

Kenyatta cannot run again after serving two terms but has endorsed his former arch-rival Raila Odinga for the top job.

The August 9 presidential election is expected to be a two-horse race between Odinga and Ruto, who was initially anointed by Kenyatta as his successor, but found himself frozen out after a shock 2018 pact between Kenyatta and Odinga.

Kenya’s finance minister last month unveiled a $28 billion budget aimed at helping the economy recover after the Covid-19 pandemic threw hundreds of thousands of people out of work.

Kenyans are struggling to cope with rising costs of basic goods such as food and fuel, a crisis exacerbated by the Ukraine war, while several parts of the country are also suffering from a severe drought.

Inflation reached a seven-month high of 6.47 percent last month from 5.56 percent in March and 5.76 percent in April last year, the statistics bureau announced last week.

Last month the country was also hit by a fuel shortage that triggered long queues at petrol stations and strict rationing.

Beijing tourist sites empty in Covid-stalked public holiday

Major Beijing tourist venues were virtually deserted Sunday and restaurant traffic ground to a standstill, as a typically bustling public holiday was overshadowed by a Covid outbreak that has shunted millions under lockdown nationwide.

China’s staunch zero-Covid policy has kept the virus at bay for more than two years but it is currently facing its worst outbreak since the start of the pandemic thanks to an Omicron-fuelled wave.

Millions across the country — particularly in economic engine Shanghai — have been pushed to stay at home for weeks, as the lockdowns have dampened economic growth and investor sentiment in the world’s second-largest economy. 

Beijing so far has reported over 300 cases under the current wave, and authorities on Saturday banned city-wide dining services starting Sunday to May 4 — an attempt to curb infections during a holiday that is typically an annual peak consumption period. 

“It will have a definite impact on sales,” a restaurant employee surnamed An told AFP, as she scanned for customers around Beijing’s Dongcheng district — home to historic attractions like the Forbidden City.

Eateries nearby were shuttered, with some only allowing customers to order takeout if they have a negative covid test.

This restriction is the latest measure ordered by Beijing authorities, who say all visitors to public spaces must have a negative test result within the past 48 hours.

“Of course we will abide by the country’s rules,” An said. But “we make less profit through delivery and our sales volume is lower”. 

The Temple of Heaven — one of China’s biggest historical attractions — is usually heaving with tens of thousands of visitors a day elbowing each other. But on Sunday, masked families could snap selfies without any interruptions along the imperial complex.

Even the downtown shopping street Wangfujing — a commerce heaven of food stalls and fashionable outlets — was deserted. 

At a restaurant not far from the unusually quiet Forbidden City palace complex, stacks of marinated chicken feet, flatbreads and cold cuts in takeaway containers languished on an outdoor table as staff chatted idly inside. 

“Obviously it’s bad in terms of our own self-interest, but it’s necessary overall for the good of the country,” said a young waiter who did not give his name.

“We would normally sell 10,000 yuan ($1,500) worth of food in a day, but now it’s only 1,000 to 2,000 yuan ($300),” he added.

Instead of entering the Forbidden City, lines of people waited outside the palace complex to get a swab test — a new normal for Beijing residents.

– Universal Studios shuttered –

About 30 kilometres (24 miles) east of the palace on the city’s outskirts, Universal Studios — Beijing’s largest Western theme park boasting a Jurassic World and Harry Potter-themed zones — announced its indefinite closure Sunday. 

It was launched in September and has seen more than two million visitors in five months.

The Labour Day holiday was supposed to be a massive commercial coup for the park — which earlier this week had initially required a negative Covid test within 24 hours of visiting. 

The capital reported 59 new infections Sunday, as officials announced the reopening of a Covid quarantine hospital that has not been mobilised since the pandemic’s first wave in 2020.

All indoor fitness activities — like public gyms and pools — were suspended starting Sunday until May 4, while authorities say about 4,000 makeshift hospital beds had been prepared and larger quarantine centres were being constructed.

“There still exists a small number of hidden infected (patients) found through community screening,” Beijing health official Pang Xinghuo said at a Sunday briefing.

“The epidemic is overall at a high plateau period.”

Meanwhile in Shanghai, officials declared Sunday that “community transmission risk has been effectively curbed” and that daily infections are trending downwards.

The financial hub of 25 million has been locked down for almost a month, with residents complaining of food shortages and lack of timely medical care.

From recession to inflation, how the US Fed has dealt with crises

The US Federal Reserve has strongly signaled it will raise interest rates by half a percentage point this week to rein in soaring inflation, and likely continue hiking throughout this year.

The Fed has long played a decisive role when the world’s largest economy faces tough times. Here are some of its major actions since the 2008 global financial crisis:

– The financial crisis and recovery –

November 2008: The Fed began injecting liquidity into financial markets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank. The central bank launched three such programs before ending asset purchases in June 2014.

December 2008: The central bank cut its lending rate to zero amid the crisis, where it remained until December 2015.

October 2017: The Fed began reducing the holdings on its balance sheet, which had ballooned from less than $900 billion before the crisis to $4.5 trillion.

– Trade war slows growth –

December 2018 to August 2019: Interest rates peaked in the range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.

Fall 2019: The Fed cut rates several times to the 1.5-1.75 percent range as the trade war launched by then-president Donald Trump slowed growth. The Republican leader had criticized the bank for its high rates.

– Support during the pandemic –

March 3, 2020: The Fed cut its lending rate by 50 basis points to between one and 1.25 percent.

March 16, 2020: As Covid-19 spread across the country and the economy shut down, the Fed slashed its lending rate by 100 basis points to zero and resumed its asset purchase policy, which eventually reached $120 billion per month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

– Economy recovers, inflation arrives –

November 3, 2021: The Fed announced it will begin slowing the pace of its asset purchases, with a view towards ending them entirely by the following June, which would set the stage for rate hikes to fight inflation.

December 15, 2021: Recognizing that inflation will not be “transitory,” as top officials had believed, the central bank accelerated the end of its asset purchases to March.

March 16, 2022: The central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 to the 0.25-0.50 percent range.

April 6, 2022: The minutes from the Fed’s March policy meeting are released, showing that many participants see one or more 50-basis point rate hikes as necessary if inflation pressure continues.

April 29, 2022: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rises 6.6 percent year-on-year and 0.9 percent month-on-month in March, both faster paces than the month prior.

Fed gears up to attack inflation as US recession fears grow

The Federal Reserve this week is set to redouble its assault against record US inflation while facing an array of shocks both internal and external that analysts fear may one day put the world’s largest economy into a recession.

The policy setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene its two-day meeting on Tuesday, and top officials have strongly signaled they will hike interest rates by half a percentage point and announce plans to reduce their massive holdings of debt.

Both moves would further tighten lending conditions in the world’s largest economy and potentially take the steam out of consumer prices that are rising at rates not seen since the 1980s — driven, in part by the Fed’s own policies.

The rate hike is expected to be one of several the Fed makes this year, but with the economy also facing shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China, analysts warn the central bank must strike a delicate balance to stop a downturn.

“They’re going to have to be very, very nimble to keep the economy from going into a ditch,” Jay Bryson, managing director and chief economist at Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank, said in an interview. 

– No more easy money –

Top Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell have hinted strongly that a half-percentage point hike will be agreed to at the May 3-4 meeting, twice the amount of the quarter-point hike the FOMC implemented in March.

The central bank is also expected to announce plans to begin offloading the trillions of dollars in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities it bought during the pandemic to support the economy, which would raise borrowing costs.

“They told us everything in advance,” said Roberto Perli, head of global policy at Piper Sandler. “I’d be shocked if they do anything different at this point.”

With consumer prices 8.5 percent higher in March compared to the same month in 2021, raising rates has become an imperative for the Fed, which cut rates to zero as the pandemic began but attracted criticism for keeping them there throughout last year, even as inflation rose.

“Inflation is still very high by all means, so full speed ahead for now with the hawkish rhetoric,” Perli said.

– Beyond their control –

The Fed’s tools are sharpest at pressuring demand, but the US economy is also being battered by shocks emanating from beyond its borders and therefore the central bank’s control, creating fears the Fed will raise rates, inflation will stay high and a downturn will follow.

The war in Ukraine has prompted a global spike in prices for oil as well as other commodities, while the pandemic lockdowns in China could worsen global supply snarls that have bedeviled the US economy in its recovery.

“They’re not very well equipped to deal with these shocks,” Perli said.

A recession is not viewed as imminent, despite last week’s release of government data showing GDP shrank in the first quarter of this year, which economists see as a consequence of trade issues that swamped otherwise healthy consumer and business spending.

The grim scenario could instead arrive next year, and Bryson said a harbinger would be if prices remain elevated even as the Fed tightens its lending rate.

“The probability of a recession is not insignificant at this point,” he said.

“If the inflation numbers continue to come in hot, then I’d say the probability of recession continues to go up.”

Perli sees signs that Powell himself worries about the Fed’s ability to pull off a “soft landing,” as the technique of quelling inflation without causing a recession is known.

In March, the Fed chair told a conference, “My colleagues and I will do our very best to succeed in this challenging task” — words Perli said he found troubling.

“It’s not a way of putting things that denotes a lot of confidence,” he said.

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