Bloomberg

UK’s Largest Fraud Operation Nets Over 100 Spoofing Scammers

(Bloomberg) — A global “spoofing shop” which scammed victims out of tens of millions of pounds has been thwarted by international law enforcement agencies.

London’s Metropolitan Police Service said Thursday it had shut down fraud website iSpoof and made more than 100 UK arrests in connection with the case. The Met worked in coordination with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Europol and Dutch authorities to make the arrests. 

ISpoof allowed fraudsters, who paid in Bitcoin, to disguise their phone numbers so it appeared they were calling from major banks including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds to trick people into giving them personal details. 

As many as 20 people every minute were being contacted by the scammers and iSpoof earned as much as £3.2 million ($3.9 million) over one 20 month period from the scheme. Losses reported as a result of the iSpoof calls and texts is around £48 million, the Met said, adding that because fraud is vastly underreported, the full amount is believed to be much higher. 

“The exploitation of technology by organized criminals is one of the greatest challenges for law enforcement in the 21st century,” said Met Commissioner Mark Rowley. “The Met is targeting the criminals at the center of these illicit webs that cause misery for thousands.”

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Black Friday Gets Boost in UK as Shoppers Seek to Save Money

(Bloomberg) — Black Friday could be more important for UK retailers this year as they try to encourage shoppers to spend cash now before the cost-of-living crisis erodes their Christmas budgets.

Almost 70% of British shoppers plan to participate in the discount event imported from the US, up from 57% last year, according to McKinsey & Co. Online searches for Black Friday sales have risen by a quarter since last year as customers look to save money, according to the Audit Lab, a data research firm. 

Sales in the week leading up to Black Friday have increased by a third compared to last year, according to Klarna, the buy-now-pay-later firm.

“Black Friday is going to be even more key in the shopping calendar,” said Anita Balchandani, head of the UK consumer practice at McKinsey in London. “All of Christmas has been pulled forward.”

It doesn’t mean consumers are splashing out. The broader picture shows that they are pulling back from spending this Christmas as energy bills rise and higher mortgage costs loom. Nearly half of UK consumers plan to spend less this festive season with a third buying cheaper gifts for friends and family, according to Ernst & Young. Some people are abstaining from Christmas shopping altogether. 

In many cases, Black Friday has turned into Black November. Department store John Lewis Partnership Plc and drugstore chain Boots both offered deals from the start of the month. Retailers also began offering Christmas sales in September and October to entice shoppers to spend earlier than normal. 

Big Discounts

Retailers are having to discount more heavily as a result in a bid to push spending during what is the most critical time of the year for most brands. Maternity fashion brand Seraphine Group Plc is offering 30% discounts compared to 20% last year, fitness wear brand Gymshark has up to 60% off and electronics retailer Currys Plc has up to 40% off. 

Amazon.com’s Black Friday sale in the UK has started and runs until tomorrow, offering discounts of 77% on ear buds and 55% on shavers.

Part of the reason is that retailers have too much inventory, having ordered stock at a time when the economy was stronger and consumer confidence was higher. Some purposely boosted their stock-in-trade to make sure their products were available amid supply chain snarls.   

“The incidents of retailers taking part in Black Friday are increasing and that’s because they are sitting there with too much stock,” said Richard Lim, chief executive officer at research consultancy Retail Economics. “They paid a lot to get stock into the country.”

Black Friday continues to be much more popular in the US, where it is part of the Thanksgiving weekend celebrations. Since arriving in the UK in 2014, it has lost some of its relevance and is now largely an online event. Incidents of shoppers fighting over consumer electronics products have become rare.

This year the Christmas trading season will be particularly key for retailers with many struggling with falling sales due to the cost of living crisis. The recent collapses of online furniture store Made.com Group Plc and clothing chain Joules Group Plc show how tough the trading environment is for some retailers.

“The retailers that have failed to walk the tightrope between clearing stock effectively and not discounting too much could find themselves in trouble,” said Duncan Brewer, head of the retail and consumer products strategy team at Ernst & Young. 

–With assistance from Ady Nugroho.

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Ukraine Struggles to Restore Utilities After Big Russian Strikes

(Bloomberg) — Ukraine restored electricity and other vital services to some areas, but most of the capital and other parts of the country remained without power in the cold after another wave of Russian missiles targeted civilian infrastructure.

The relentless attacks threaten to trigger another refugee exodus to Europe and underscore Kyiv’s need for more increased air defenses.

“When it is freezing temperature outside and millions of people are cut off from electricity, heating and water as a result of Russia’s missile attack on energy facilities, it is a clear crime against humanity,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the United Nations Security Council by video link after Wednesday’s barrage.

Russia’s envoy, Vasily Nebenzya, told the gathering the attacks will continue until Kyiv is forced to take a “realistic” approach to potential talks, saying the strikes were retaliation for US and European weapons supplies to Ukraine. 

Widespread Blackouts

Power was still out in 70% of the capital, Kyiv, and half of residents lacked running water, mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram. Emergency workers restored electricity to critical infrastructure in 17 of 24 regions of the country, officials said. 

The barrage of about 70 missiles hit targets ranging from key energy facilities to a maternity ward, killing a newborn. The outages left mobile communication towers without power, causing internet connection slowdowns. Temperatures dropped below freezing in much of the country overnight.

Ukraine Latest: Most of Kyiv Left Without Power After Attacks

After suffering a series of battlefield defeats at the hands of Ukraine’s army, Moscow has turned to targeting energy in a bid to crush Ukrainians’ spirit and raise pressure from its allies to agree to talks. 

EU Aims for Russian Oil Price Cap Deal Amid Split Over Aim 

With fighting expected to slow as winter weather makes it more difficult to cross obstacles such as muddy steppes, Ukrainians have remained defiant. Allies have stepped up supplies of anti-aircraft weapons, allowing Kyiv to shoot down many of Russia’s missiles. But the escalating misery has raised fears of a new wave of refugees that could overwhelm a Europe already struggling with surging costs of living, in part due to the war.

‘Hard Winter’

Ukrainian authorities enacted emergency blackouts and took three nuclear plants offline after rocket attacks knocked out power lines and left the reactors nowhere to transmit electricity. Even before the latest barrage, weeks of attacks had wrought more than $1.9 billion of damage to the grid, according to the state distribution utility, that will take considerable time to repair. 

“It’s hard to run a modern society on fancy camping equipment,” said Joseph Majkut, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ energy security program. “This is a very cruel type of warfare and it portends a hard winter in Ukraine.”

The World Health Organization warned even before the latest strikes that millions of lives are at risk in Ukraine this winter due to damaged infrastructure that has left 10 million people, or around one quarter of the population, without power.

Zelenskiy’s administration has set up emergency points for residents to weather blackouts. US and European governments have supplied his government with generators and fuel. A particular challenge is trying to source the near obsolete auto-transformers that are needed in Ukraine’s Soviet-designed electricity grid, according to a European diplomat familiar with the discussions.

European Union officials have expressed concern that the devastation to the energy grid may touch off another exodus of refugees to the bloc, in addition to the millions of Ukrainians who’ve already fled and remain abroad to escape the war.

“The Russian strategy now seems to be to make those conditions so extremely horrible that people give in and maybe start putting pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to negotiate some sort of peace,” said Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.

Zelenskiy has ruled out negotiations with Russia until it withdraws forces from all of the country’s territories, including Crimea. 

Ukraine and its allies have said Russia is likely to run out of missiles and there are signs that the Kremlin has had to dig deep into its inventories to keep up the attacks, using anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles against ground targets.

–With assistance from Daryna Krasnolutska.

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Equities Advance, Dollar Falls on Fed Rate Outlook: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — European stocks gained and the dollar fell after Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed support for more moderate interest-rate increases.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3% as the real estate sector outperformed, boosted by the prospects of slower rate hikes and analyst upgrades. Trading volumes are expected to be lower due to the Thanksgiving holiday, which will mean no cash US equity market trading. Wall Street futures were up after the S&P 500 closed at a two-month high Wednesday. Asia’s equities benchmark climbed.

Minutes from the Fed gathering earlier this month indicated several officials backed the need to moderate the pace of rate hikes, even as some underscored the need for a higher terminal rate. This adds weight to expectations the central bank will raise rates by 50 basis points next month, ending a run of jumbo 75 basis point increases. 

“It was the start of a more different and dovish narrative from the Fed,” said Sunaina Sinha Haldea, global head of private capital advisory at Raymond James. “Is it a pivot? No, but are we seeing a slowdown in rate hikes and that path downwards towards rate cuts coming through? Yes. I think we will look back and say this was the peak of it.”

Data Wednesday also showed US business activity contracted and unemployment applications rose as the economy cools.

 

A gauge of dollar strength fell further Thursday, taking declines into a third day. There is no trading in Treasuries due to the US holiday.

Oil slipped as the European Union considered a higher-than-expected price cap on Russian crude and signs of a global slowdown increased. 

Gold rose for a third day on the Fed minutes. The precious metal has been hurt by the US central bank’s aggressive monetary-tightening policy to curb inflation, which has pushed up bond yields and the dollar and in turn sent bullion tumbling about 16% from its March peak. 

In Asian trading, mainland Chinese stocks underperformed as investors weighed the impact of record Covid-19 cases against signs of loosening monetary conditions. Official comments broadcast Wednesday indicated the People’s Bank of China would allow banks to reduce capital reserves to stimulate growth.

China’s Covid-zero policy has had “a significant effect on consumption” while the property crisis is “affecting investment in the sector and affecting property developers,” Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director for the International Monetary Fund, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Bill Ackman, founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management LP, said he’s betting against the Hong Kong dollar and its peg with the greenback.

Pershing owns a “large notional position” in Hong Kong dollar put options — bearish wagers on the currency — he said in a tweet, adding that the peg no longer made sense for Hong Kong.

Key events this week:

  • ECB publishes account of its October policy meeting, Thursday
  • US stock and bond markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, Thursday
  • US stock and bond markets close early, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% as of 9:34 a.m. London time
  • Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5%
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.2%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
  • The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0416
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 138.70 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 7.1403 per dollar
  • The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2080

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $16,587.35
  • Ether rose 2.7% to $1,200.38

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.69%
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 1.84%
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 2.92%

Commodities

  • Brent crude fell 0.4% to $85.08 a barrel
  • Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,756.51 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Allegra Catelli and Richard Henderson.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Amazon Faces Black Friday Protests and Strikes in 40 Countries

(Bloomberg) — Thousands of Amazon warehouse workers across about 40 countries plan to take part in protests and walkouts to coincide with Black Friday sales, one of the busiest days of the year for online shopping.

Employees in the US, UK, India, Japan, Australia, South Africa and across Europe are demanding better wages and working conditions as the cost-of-living crisis deepens, in a campaign dubbed “Make Amazon Pay.” The campaign is being coordinated by an international coalition of trade unions, with the support of environmental and civil society groups.

“It’s time for the tech giant to cease their awful, unsafe practices immediately, respect the law and negotiate with the workers who want to make their jobs better,” said Christy Hoffman, general secretary for UNI Global Union, one of the organizers.

Tension with workers has been a long-running issue at the e-commerce giant, which has faced complaints of unfair labor practices as well as employee activism and union drives at some facilities. In what was seen as a watershed moment, workers at a warehouse in Staten Island, New York, voted earlier this year to join an upstart union.

“While we are not perfect in any area, if you objectively look at what Amazon is doing on these important matters you’ll see that we do take our role and our impact very seriously,” Amazon spokesman David Nieberg said. 

He cited the company’s target to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 and that it’s “continuing to offer competitive wages and great benefits, and inventing new ways to keep our employees safe and healthy.”

Unions in France and Germany — CGT and Ver.di — are spearheading the latest collective action, with coordinated strikes in 18 major warehouses, intended to disrupt shipments across key European markets.

In the UK, workers associated with GMB union have planned protests outside several warehouses, including Coventry.

“Amazon workers in Coventry are overworked, underpaid and they’ve had enough,” said Amanda Gearing, a senior GMB organizer, adding that “hundreds” will assemble to demand a wage increase from £10.50 an hour to £15.

Any workers who walk out during a shift could lose out on the second half of a £500 bonus that Amazon announced for UK warehouse workers last month. The final payment is contingent on staff taking “no unauthorized absence” between Nov. 22 and Dec. 24. The GMB has said linking payments to attendance could be interpreted as unlawful inducement not to strike.

In the US, protests and rallies will take place in more than 10 cities and outside an apartment block on 5th Avenue, New York, where Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has a condo. Multiple rallies are also planned in India while in Japan, members of a recently created union will protest in front of the company’s national headquarters in Tokyo. In Bangladesh, garment workers in Amazon’s supply chain will march in Dhaka and Chittagong.

Some demonstrations will focus on Amazon’s environmental and social footprint, for example in Ireland where people will gather outside the company’s Dublin offices to push back against two new planned data centers in the city. In South Africa, protesters will gather near Amazon’s new offices in Cape Town, which is being developed on land that indigenous people consider to be sacred.

Some unions expressed concern about the current economic climate amid a warning from Amazon that its peak Christmas season might not be as busy as usual. The company’s decision to lay off 10,000 staff will also make wage negotiations more challenging.

Laurent Cretin, a delegate for the CFE-CGC union in France, said the company will have 880 workers in a warehouse in Chalon-sur-Saône this Christmas season, down from 1,000 before Covid, which he linked to tightening consumer spending and the transfer of activity to robotized warehouses.

“The projections are not great, we are not sure we will do as good as last year that saw a post-Covid surge,” he said.

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

What the Latest Crypto Crash Means for ETFs

(Bloomberg) — Subscribe to Trillions on Apple PodcastsSubscribe to Trillions on Spotify

The crypto market may not be dead, but it’s arguably in a temporary coma thanks to the spectacular implosion of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX. The bankrupt crypto exchange, with billions of dollars of customer funds allegedly missing, has spooked all but the hardcore believers and potentially set the digital asset class back by years. 

On this episode of Trillions, we sit down with James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence and reporter Katie Greifeld to discuss what this means for exchange-traded fund investors and the likelihood a spot Bitcoin ETF will get approved. We also take a look at what’s going on with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Chinese Developers Rally on Prospects of Additional Financing

(Bloomberg) — Chinese developers rebounded Thursday as more signs of government policy support emerged for the debt-ravaged sector. 

A Bloomberg Intelligence stock gauge of builders climbed about 7.25%, the most in 10 days, with Country Garden Holdings Co. jumping 20%. Gains in property firms’ dollar bonds were more selective, with investment-grade builder Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. leading outperformers along with Country Garden and Greentown China Holdings Ltd. The sector’s debt and equity had pulled back the past week following a surge to start November. 

China’s mega state-owned banks are offering at least 270 billion yuan ($38 billion) in new credit to property developers including Country Garden and Longfor as part of the nation’s push to ease turmoil in the real estate market. That comes as builders are ramping up planned bond issuance under a state-guarantee program that first emerged in August. 

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Wednesday called for support in the property market and reiterated pledges to keep financing stable. The government also signaled that more monetary policy stimulus — including a cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio — is on the table.

“The core of the policy is to build a firewall between developers that have already defaulted and those that haven’t,” said Li Kai, founder of Beijing Shengao Fund Management Co. “There will be limited impact on the defaulters, as the policy support is not targeting them — but it would still boost their bond prices.”

Developers have defaulted on a record amount of dollar bonds this year, but onshore delinquencies have fallen sharply this year as many firms have reached deals with noteholders on payment extensions. 

“Whether developers that defaulted offshore will avoid an onshore default primarily depends on their cash flows rather than policy help,” said Li.

–With assistance from Lorretta Chen.

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Foxconn Offers Staff $1,400 to Leave After iPhone City Violence

(Bloomberg) — Foxconn Technology Group has begun offering 10,000 yuan ($1,400) to any workers who choose to leave, an unusual decision intended to appease disgruntled new hires who played a central role in violent protests that rocked the world’s largest iPhone factory.

Apple Inc.’s main global production partner said in an online notice the sum, to be paid out in two installments, will help smooth the journey home for employees. Many of the 200,000-plus workers at Foxconn’s main plant in Zhengzhou hail from elsewhere in the province or country. But the intent was also to usher out recent employees that the local government helped recruit, many of whom fueled tensions among the ranks. The company will replace departing staff, though it may take time. 

The payout, which in general exceeds a month’s wages for Foxconn’s blue-collar staff, is likely to placate some employees who on Wednesday staged a rare violent protest that trained a spotlight on the economic and social toll of Xi Jinping’s Covid Zero strategy. Hundreds of workers clashed with security personnel in the early hours as tensions boiled over after almost a month under tough restrictions intended to quash a Covid outbreak.

One factor behind the unrest is that workers found out they wouldn’t receive higher wages they had been promised unless they stayed at the factory through March. The 10,000 yuan payment would compensate people unhappy with that restriction for their travel back home. A computer glitch also didn’t help. Foxconn apologized Thursday for an “input error” that may have made it seem like some staff were paid less than promised, adding it would stand by contractual obligations.

Mounting dissatisfaction among Foxconn’s ranks threatens to further disrupt production at a plant that cranks out the majority of Apple’s marquee devices for shipment around the world. The US company has already warned it will ship fewer devices than anticipated during the critical holiday quarter, while wait times for iPhones have ballooned in some cases to after Christmas. 

“We have Apple team members on the ground at our supplier Foxconn’s Zhengzhou facility,” the US company said in a statement. “We are reviewing the situation and working closely with Foxconn to ensure their employees’ concerns are addressed.”

Read more: Violent Protests Erupt at Apple’s Main IPhone Plant in China

Workers streamed out of dormitories in the early hours of Wednesday, jostling and pushing past the white-clad guards they vastly outnumbered. Several white-suited people pummeled a person lying on the ground with sticks in another clip. Onlookers yelled “fight, fight!” as throngs of people forced their way past barricades. At one point, several surrounded an occupied police car and began rocking the vehicle while screaming incoherently.

The protest started overnight over unpaid wages and fears of spreading infection. Several workers were injured and anti-riot police arrived on the scene to restore order.

The plant had resumed normal operations by Wednesday evening, Foxconn said in a statement. But the protests underscored how Xi’s policy, which relies on swift lockdowns to stamp out the disease wherever it pops up, is increasingly weighing on the economy and throwing swathes of the global supply chain into disarray. 

The Foxconn situation serves up another reminder of the dangers for Apple of relying on a vast production machine centered on China at a time of unpredictable policy and uncertain trade relations.

Beijing recently issued new directives ordering officials to minimize disruption and use more targeted Covid controls, but surging outbreaks in major cities have forced local authorities to reach for strict curbs again.

Hours after the Zhengzhou violence, the local government announced “mobility controls” over parts of the city through to Nov. 29 — an effective lockdown that could hamper efforts to recruit new workers to replace those who leave.

“Media reports indicate the protests were not outside the production facilities,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. “Hence, we expect production operations should be able to continue. The company maintains a target of full operation at its Zhengzhou Park by the end of November.”

Read more: China’s IPhone City Locks Down Urban Areas as Covid Cases Rise

–With assistance from Gao Yuan.

(Updates with details on glitch in the fourth paragraph)

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Truckers in Korea Strike in Latest Threat to Global Supply Chains

(Bloomberg) — Truck drivers are on strike in South Korea for the second time in less than a year, targeting major ports in a bid to disrupt key exports from autos to petrochemicals.

The strike began Thursday morning, with demonstrations at 16 sites across the country. The union, which represents 25,000 workers, didn’t disclose details of the work actions in a statement Wednesday, but a representative earlier this week said it planned to block all ports in the country.

The work stoppage threatens a repeat of the union’s actions in June, when protests caused production disruptions costing about 1.6 trillion won ($1.2 billion). Auto, petrochemical, steel and other key industries were hit as companies from Posco Holdings Inc. to Hyundai Motor Co. curbed output.

Growing Discontent

The protests are the latest instance of global supply-chain workers showing discontent as food and energy costs soar following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wages of transportation workers have been stagnant, putting unions under pressure to press for pay rises, said Russell Lansbury, emeritus professor at the University of Sydney’s business school. 

The Biden administration is currently seeking to avoid a strike of US rail workers that could create major supply-chain disruptions just before Christmas.

A lengthy dispute in South Korea may have ripple effects across the globe, as the country is the largest exporter of memory chips and is home to some of the world’s biggest car companies. However, the impact may be more muted for some industries amid weaker global demand for steel and other raw materials.

The strike also puts more pressure on President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is trying to keep the country’s economy on track as rising energy prices spur inflation, while the slowdown in global growth curbs exports. The Bank of Korea opted for a small rise in interest rates on Thursday as it seeks to minimize pressure on the economy while keeping inflation in check.

Wage Demands

Truckers are protesting a lack of progress on wage demands after months of negotiations following the previous strike. The union is trying to expand and extend a system that calculates minimum wage based on operating costs, helping to alleviate the impact of soaring fuel prices.  

The union said in its statement that the government is failing on negotiations, and is favoring cargo owners rather than expanding the plan to others including drivers of petroleum and grain trucks. 

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said earlier this week that the government is seeking a three-year extension on the wage system. It is preparing a contingency plan to minimize the impact of the strike on industries, and said any illegal activity to block shipments would be “strictly handled.”

Some companies made preparations in advance of the strike, securing as many parts and raw materials as possible. 

A spokesperson for Hyundai Motor said logistics and vehicle production at its Ulsan plant remain unaffected so far, but the company is monitoring the situation closely. A representative for refiner SK Innovation Co. said complexes in Ulsan and Incheon are operating under normal conditions and ships are moving as scheduled.

Posco said the strike may cause serious disruptions to restoration work at its Pohang steel plant, which sustained damage from flooding in September. The company is hoping the union will allow trucks to come in and out for the repair work.

Shares of export-sensitive companies in South Korea were mixed Thursday. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. fell 0.8% and Posco was flat, while Hyundai and chemicals manufacturer LG Chem Ltd. rose.

–With assistance from Sohee Kim and Sharon Cho.

(Updates with professor’s comments in fifth paragraph and responses from companies in last three paragraphs.)

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©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Transcript Zero Episode 17: The Food System Needs a Rethink

(Bloomberg) — What’s worse for the planet than Big Oil? The food system, argues environmental journalist and campaigner George Monbiot in his new book Regenesis and on Episode 17 of Zero. Agriculture is “one of the greatest causes of water pollution, of air pollution, and of climate breakdown,” Monbiot says. “And the sort of lion’s share, or cow’s share, of that is caused by livestock farming.”

In a wide-ranging conversation with host Akshat Rathi, Monbiot says the best solutions will require a radical refocusing on food’s newest technologies. Listen to the full episode below, learn more about the podcast here, and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, Google and Stitcher to stay on top of new episodes.

Our transcripts are generated by a combination of software and human editors, and may contain slight differences between the text and audio. Please confirm in audio before quoting in print. 

Akshat Rathi  0:00  

Welcome to Zero, I’m Akshat Rathi. This week: Microbial protein, the end of farming and really stinky cheese.

Akshat Rathi  0:14  

Every year our food system does something amazing. We produce enough food for 8 billion people and then some. And although millions still go underfed, the level of hunger in the world is much lower than in all of human history. It’s a remarkable feat when put in its historical context. 

Archival clip  0:31  

Meanwhile, India’s food problems continue to create widespread concern, a countryside on the very edge of starvation.

Akshat Rathi  0:38  

Back in the 1960s, widespread famine was averted by the Green Revolution, a transfer of agricultural technology to developing countries that massively increased farming yields across Asia and South America, and lifted hundreds of millions out of hunger and poverty. The population in the 1960s was just 3 billion. We’re now at 8 billion people and still our food system has managed to keep up. In 2019, the production of primary crops — things like cereals, fruits, vegetables — reached 9.4 billion tons globally. That’s 50% more than in the year 2000. But all that food production comes at an enormous cost. Agriculture is a major driver of global greenhouse gas emissions and almost 40% of the Earth’s surface is used for farming. That’s something that my guest today, environmental journalist and campaigner George Monbiot, argues is a disaster for our planet. 

George Monbiot  1:37  

The crucial environmental commodity, which we should be paying more attention to than any other environmental metric, is land. Because every hectare of land we use for an extractive industry is a hectare and not being used for wild ecosystems.

Akshat Rathi  1:52  

In his new book Regenesis, George argues that the global food system needs a radical rethink. That system can sound abstract, but picture it as every business and relationship that exists to bring Ukrainian wheat to Pakistan, or Brazilian beef to a butcher in Paris. This conversation is about the difficulties facing that system. But it is also about solutions. The technologies that George hopes can fix a system in crisis and lead us to another, greener revolution. We join George surrounded by birds and bees in his community orchard in Oxford, where his book and his examination of the global food system begins.

Akshat Rathi  2:38  

George, welcome to the show.

George Monbiot  2:39  

Thank you very much.

Akshat Rathi  2:41  

You open your book sitting in this orchard, pulling out a spit of soil. And then you examine the food system through the exploration of what is in the soil. You write about these systems being in crisis, and you then explore solutions to some of the crisis. Let’s start with the crisis. Where does the crisis in the world’s food system really begin?

George Monbiot  3:02  

It begins with the world food system. In fact, the biggest problem the world food system faces is the world food system. And it’s beginning to look rather like the financial system in the approach to 2008, which is not a good place to be. There are a number of huge, super-dominant companies which have become too big to fail. So on one estimate, four companies control 90% of global grain trade. And as their operations have become more efficient and streamlined, which might be good for each individual business, it makes the system as a whole less resilient. And to understand this, you really have to grasp systems theory. And a complex system, which is what the global food system is, and indeed what most of the important things on Earth are, is a system composed of nodes, like the knots in an old fashioned fishing net, and the links between them. And if those nodes become too big and too strongly connected to each other, you lose the four elements of systemic resilience. One of those is redundancy: spare capacity that’s been more or less stripped out of the food system, everything has become super-efficient just-in-time delivery. Another one is what’s called modularity: the degree to which the system is compartmentalized. Well, that’s all been stripped out as well, as we’ve switched towards a global standard farm, supplying a global standard diet using the same seeds, the same chemicals, the same machinery everywhere. Then there’s circuit breakers: Where are the points at which shocks which pass through that system can stop being transmitted? Well, those have all gone as well. And then there’s the backup systems: Where are the entirely different systems which you could switch into if you encounter a crisis? They’re virtually non-existent now. And so, through this global homogenization, which seems to make sense — every individual step towards it makes sense — we see a system that has become systemically fragile. Now complex systems, they don’t respond to change in linear ways.

Akshat Rathi  5:13  

They’re not complicated. They’re more than complicated.

George Monbiot  5:18  

Yes, so an engine is a complicated system, it’s got lots of moving parts, but they behave in predictable and linear ways. Whereas a complex system is composed of billions of decision points, randomly, stochastically interacting with each other, but has this weird property of being self-regulating, within a certain range of stress. But then, if you push it beyond that stress range, those self-regulating circuits within the system become self-amplifying. And this is the same whether you’re looking at the global food system, global financial system, ecosystems, the atmosphere, the oceans, the human brain, the human body. This is how complex systems consistently behave. They’ll absorb stress and self-regulate and maintain an equilibrium state, up to a certain critical threshold.

Akshat Rathi  6:05  

And you describe that threshold to be flickering, that you will start to see signs of it breaking down. Are there signs you’re seeing in the food system that respond to this sort of flickering in a complex system?

George Monbiot  6:19  

Yes, you’re quite right. So as the system approaches a tipping point, its outputs begin to flicker. And we see things which don’t seem to make any sense. Just like in the approach to 2008, we saw these wild surges and fallbacks in equity values. And so what’s going on here? And then suddenly, the whole system was on the verge of going down because of the subprime crisis in the US, which wasn’t a big deal in terms of global financial flows. But it was the butterfly’s wing which nearly tipped the whole system. Well, in this case, we’re seeing those wild fluctuations in output values. 

Akshat Rathi  6:50

Give us a few examples. 

George Monbiot  6:52  

Yes. So in 2015, something very weird happened. Between the 1960s and 2014, we saw a steady decline in chronic global hunger — fewer and fewer people going hungry. And then suddenly, in 2015, we saw that trend turn. And we started seeing the number of chronically hungry people rising. And that’s continued ever since.

Akshat Rathi  7:14  

I mean, there’s the pandemic that’s made it worse, but this status was before.

George Monbiot  7:18  

Yes, long before. And the really weird thing about this is that between 2014 and 2015, global food prices fell dramatically. The global food price index in 2014, was 115. In 2015, it was 93. And it stayed below 100 right up until halfway through 2020.

Akshat Rathi  7:37  

So it’s not that there’s more poverty, and people can’t afford it. That’s why there’s hunger. 

George Monbiot  7:41  

Yeah, it’s the opposite to what you would expect. You’d expect that when the food prices fall, hunger falls, right. But it rose. And what has been happening here is that as the system has lost its resilience, shocks are more easily transmitted through it. So even something relatively small, like a speculative surge on one commodity, like an export restriction by one exporting nation, those shocks, instead of being damped down by a healthy system, get amplified by a system which is becoming fragile. We in the rich nations hardly noticed that because we’ve got the buying power, we’ve got the hard currencies. It’s the poor nations, which are food insecure, which are buying food with soft currencies in a hard currency market, that are at the end of that chain. And as the shock gets amplified through the chain, it lands on them. And so what you see is these sudden disruptions of supply in the poor nations which cause local price spikes. So even while the global price is low, the national price spikes, and that’s what seems to be driving chronic hunger. So we have the pandemic and people say, “Oh, there’s an issue with food supply here.” And then we have Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “Oh there’s an even bigger issue with food supply.” And people assume that that’s what caused it. But actually, those problems, which are real problems, and definitely exacerbated it, revealed the systemic fragility. They haven’t caused the systemic fragility.

Akshat Rathi  9:01  

And in 2015, of course, the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. Then, the world was 0.9 degrees Celsius warmer than pre industrial times. We are almost at 1.2°C now. And climate change is contributing to some of these problems?

George Monbiot  9:15  

Well, a classic example was this year. After the invasion of Ukraine, India stepped forward and said, “Don’t worry, we can fill the gap because we’ve got a bumper wheat harvest coming and there’s going to be this massive shortfall of wheat exports from Ukraine. We’ll make up that shortfall. We’ll become a super exporter this year.” Literally, just four weeks later, the Indian government came forward again and said, “About those exports. We’re imposing a total export ban, because we were hit by this massive heatwave, which has shriveled the grain on the plants and and our wheat harvest is going to be much, much lower than we thought.” And so what we saw there was a climate crisis coinciding with a geopolitical crisis. And we’re going to see more and more of that. And some of the predictions for how environmental change is going to affect the global food supply are really terrifying. Absolutely, staying awake at night sweating, terrifying.

Akshat Rathi  10:14  

But we have to acknowledge and sit in this sort of discomfort that this food system that we’ve created, has been able to supply food for the ever growing population. We had about 2 billion people at the start of the 20th century, who were fed. And yes, there was more hunger proportionally, then. And now we have 8 billion people, this year, we crossed that threshold. And we are still able to feed them. Yes, hunger is going up, but it’s still, relative to where we were, at a much lower level. So the system that’s allowed us to get here does have problems. But how do we sit with that discomfort? 

George Monbiot  10:51  

Yes. So it’s kind of like the man falling out of the window at the top of the skyscraper saying, “So far, so good.” It has served us well, so far. And we have been very fortunate, you know, we’ve seen this great surge in food production, which has outstripped population growth, such that we now produce roughly twice as many calories as humans need to survive on. Now, a huge amount of that is wasted by being channeled through livestock by being used for biofuels. Some of it disappears in food waste, as well. But we can turn out enormous volumes of food. Unfortunately, this system is now being hit by all these causes of fragility, which we’re just not attending to, and governments just don’t seem interested, they don’t even seem to understand what’s happening here. It is like the financial system before 2008, where it looked great, it looked really healthy, equity values were really high, the bank shares were soaring, it was all looking great. And then suddenly, boom. And it required this massive bailout. Now, the thing is that you could bail out the financial sector before it completely collapsed by drawing on future money. You can’t bail out the food sector by drawing on future food.

Akshat Rathi  12:09  

What is it that got us to this point, where we have the ability for us to be able to make food for 8 billion people? What were the steps that led us to this point? And then where in those steps did we go wrong?

George Monbiot  12:21  

The answer is the same to both questions. That’s the curious and paradoxical thing. The answer really is the Green Revolution, which moved us towards these very high-yielding, very successful new varieties, which respond very well to a particular formula or treatment. It’s the same seeds, it’s the same fertilizers, it’s the same machinery. You roll it out worldwide, and you’re producing a huge amount of food.

Akshat Rathi  12:46  

And as somebody who grew up in India, that was tremendously valuable, because we were on the verge of facing hunger in levels that we’d never seen before.

George Monbiot  12:57  

No question, no question at all. I mean, all the predictions were that we were going to see unbelievable and horrendous famines. And that system saved the lives of huge numbers of people. But it has these inherent instabilities for all those reasons that I mentioned. And its apparent health today, like the apparent health of the financial system, becomes ever more illusory as time goes on, because of the problem of systemic fragility.

Akshat Rathi  13:25  

And so this concentrated agricultural system that’s feeding the world right now, how exactly is it contributing to climate change?

George Monbiot  13:31  

Well, food production as a whole, is responsible for roughly 1/3 of all our carbon emissions, or greenhouse gas emissions. Even if we eliminate all other sources of greenhouse gas emissions, if we don’t tackle that, by the end of the century, it will exceed by between two and three times the amount of greenhouse gasses we can safely produce. Just the food system alone. But there’s an even bigger issue, which is the carbon opportunity costs. So those greenhouse gas emissions I’m talking about, you could think of those as a current account, current climate account. But the capital climate account is the carbon opportunity costs, which means what you could be doing otherwise, if you weren’t doing this particular thing. 

Akshat Rathi  14:19  

And those emissions that are generated are coming from fertilizer production? From changing the land use — you’re deforesting — and from the manure that’s coming from livestock and all those things?

George Monbiot  14:31  

So the livestock themselves produce methane. Manure produces nitrous oxide. These are both very powerful greenhouse gasses. But the biggest question of all is this capital account. That land might otherwise be harboring for instance, forests or wetlands, both of which are very high-carbon habitats. And if the forests and wetlands are allowed to come back, they will draw down a great deal of the carbon dioxide we’ve released into the atmosphere. In fact, we now know that merely decarbonizing our economies is no longer enough. Clearly, we have to decarbonize them as quickly and as effectively as we possibly can. But even if we did that, we would almost certainly exceed two degrees of global heating. We need to draw down some of the carbon dioxide we’ve already produced. If we bring back forests and wetlands, in particular, they turn CO2 into C, into solid carbon. And in doing so, they could determine whether or not we get through this century. In fact, it’s very hard to see how we’re going to sustain our life support systems unless there’s a mass restoration of wild ecosystems, like forests and wetlands. And the biggest impediment to that is livestock keeping.

Akshat Rathi  15:42  

In your book, you mention this statistic, which is stunning, which is that we produce twice as many calories as humans consume. But of course, that’s because the vast majority of those calories are not being fed to humans, they’re being fed to livestock. And that creates its own set of problems. 

George Monbiot  16:02  

Yes indeed. So we have this grossly inefficient system that we’ve created of eating animals. And it divides into two categories. There’s the intensive animal production, which involves these gigantic factories with tens of thousands of chickens, or thousands of pigs, all these giant feedlots with loads and loads of cattle kept in horrendous conditions, massive animal cruelty, being fed on grain often shipped from the other side of the world, particularly soya grown in the Sahara and the Amazon in South America with devastating ecological consequences. And then, when they’ve eaten that food, there’s a huge amount of nutrients that comes out the back end of those animals, and there’s nowhere for those nutrients to go, they can’t easily be transported because they’re very low value and high volume. So farmers spread them on the surrounding fields, the fields can’t absorb them all. The surplus washes off into the rivers and the rivers die. And all over the world now, we’re seeing the global standard river being created by intensive livestock farming, which is over-fertilized, which means you get these blooms of microalgae, which when they respire at night, suck all the oxygen out of the water and kill everything else. And so they’re turning into sewers effectively, our beautiful rivers, and this is happening all over the world. So that’s the intensive livestock farming. And everyone says, “Oh, we hate that.” And they say. “So the answer must be extensive livestock farming” — in other words, grazing.

Akshat Rathi  17:28

Happy farming. 

George Monbiot  17:30  

Exactly, happy farming. And we see all the images. We’ve got this long, bucolic pastoral tradition of the shepherd with their flocks, or the cowboy with the cows. And we think that’s the answer. But if there’s one thing worse than intensive livestock farming, it’s extensive livestock farming. And the reason for that is that, by definition, extensive farming means using more land to produce the same amount of food. That’s the definitional quality of it. And the crucial environmental commodity, which we should be paying more attention to than any other environmental metric, is land. And the amount of land you use is the key determinant of whether our life-support systems survive or not. Because every hectare of land we use for an extractive industry, like cattle ranching, for example, is a hectare not being used for wild ecosystems, such as forests, or wetlands or savannas or natural grasslands. And so we’re seeing this as the biggest driver of all habitat destruction. I mean, agriculture is the worst thing we’ve ever done to the planet, right? 

Akshat Rathi  18:39

Worse than Big Oil? 

George Monbiot  18:41

Oh, yeah. Well, yes, because of the full spectrum assault on the planet. I mean, it causes a massive amount of climate breakdown. More than global transport does, for example, considerably more. But it also is the greatest cause of habitat destruction by a very long way. The greatest cause of wildlife loss. The greatest cause of extinction, again, by a very long way. Greatest cause of soil degradation. Greatest source, of course, of freshwater use. One of the greatest causes of water pollution, of air pollution, and of climate breakdown, as well. And the sort of lion’s share, or cow’s share, of that is caused by livestock farming. And the more extensive that livestock farming is, the more damaging it is because of the sheer amount of land it requires to support it. There was a study in the United States saying, “What if we did what all the foodies and chefs and some environmentalists say we should do, which is to switch from grain-fed cattle production to pasture fed cattle.” And it looked at it and said “Oh, yes, we would have to raise the amount of land use to keep cattle by 270%.” That would mean more than the entire surface area of the United States. You’d have to demolish the cities. You’d have to cut down all the forests, you’d have to water the deserts, you’d have to dig up all the National Parks.

Akshat Rathi  19:58

Take away all the golf courses.

George Monbiot   20:00

Of course, take out all the golf courses. Yes, worst of all! And you would turn the whole US surface into a cattle ranch. And then you’d still need to be importing loads of your beef from the Amazon, which incidentally, they’re already doing and calling it pasture-fed. It’s an absolute environmental catastrophe. The most damaging of all farm products is organic, pasture-fed beef. And the reason for the organic bit is that organic needs even more land and produces even more greenhouse gas emissions.

Akshat Rathi  20:30  

There is a stunning stat in the book which said, we use 28% of the land on the planet, to create 1% of protein that humans consume.

George Monbiot  20:43  

Yeah, the land issue is so interesting and so important, right? We all hate urban sprawl, right? And we’re right to hate urban sprawl, because it’s very bad for the countryside. And it’s also very bad for our cities. But the entire urban area that humanity uses, whether in towns, villages, whatever, is 1% of the terrestrial planet surface. Much of the rest of the world is ice cap, desert, rocky mountains, which we can’t really use for extractive industries. And about 15% is protected area. Forty percent is used for agriculture. But of that 40%, the 12% is used for growing crops, and roughly half of that of those crops are going into livestock. But then, what about the 28%? That 28% — the biggest thing, the worst thing we do to the planet, is entirely for pasture-fed animals. From the animals which get their food from grazing alone, they produce just 1% of our protein, 1%! This is the most wasteful, profligate, destructive way of producing our food you could possibly imagine. And you might ask yourself, “why, in the 21st century, are we using a Neolithic means to produce our protein-rich foods?”

Akshat Rathi  22:04  

After the break, George discusses the technologies that can help bring farming and protein production into the 21st century.

Akshat Rathi  22:20  

I want to move to the solutions part of the book because there are different solutions. There is growing meat in labs, there’s insect protein, there is using AI for farming. But the solutions that you put forward are much more radical. We should do away with the farm entirely. You call it the techno-ethical shift. What is it?

George Monbiot  22:41  

So I’m not calling for an end to all farming, I am calling for an end of all livestock farming. I think that we just can’t afford to indulge this way of feeding ourselves anymore. It is an indulgence that the planet cannot accommodate anymore. There’s just not the space for it. If we’re gonna get through this century, we have to stop livestock farming, it really is as simple as that. Yeah, you like your steak, but I quite like a habitable planet. Oh steak? Habitable planet? Steak? Habitable planet? Tough choice, right? So what I’m calling for yes, is the end of livestock farming. And we are incredibly fortunate. Because just as we need that shift, we have the means of doing it far more effectively than ever before.

Akshat Rathi  23:21  

At this point, I would go, “You’re talking about lab-grown meat, right?”

George Monbiot  23:25  

Yeah, except I’m not. I thought, when I started research for this book, that lab-grown meat was going to be a big part of the answer. This cultured meat where you can actually grow your steak, or grow your lamb chop, or grow your tuna filet in a flask in a factory, in a bioreactor. I think there are now just too many technical and financial barriers to doing that at scale. Not least because you need to maintain clinical standards of hygiene to do it, which is very expensive. Because if you don’t, the issue is that mammalian cells double every 24 hours. Well, bacterial cells double every 20 minutes. So unless you’ve got clinical standards, you’re gonna have a bacterial culture, not a mammalian culture. And that is where actually the answer comes in: bacterial cultures. Because bacterial cultures are really, really easy to grow and super productive and much, much cheaper. Not just cultured meat, but in fact, any protein-rich food that we produce today.

Akshat Rathi  24:27  

Well, they’ve had 3 billion years to become efficient.

George Monbiot  24:32  

That’s right. And I feel very privileged. This is a pure vanity thing. But when I went to Helsinki to look at a company, which was one of the early movers in this field, it’s called Solar Foods, and it’s producing this protein-rich flour from a hydrogen oxygenating bacterium found in the soil whose feedstock is hydrogen. It doesn’t eat any photosynthetic product. In fact, it turns hydrogen into its useful energy and creates its cells that way.

Akshat Rathi  25:02  

And we can make hydrogen by splitting water using sunlight.

George Monbiot  25:06  

Anywhere on Earth. Well, particularly places which are hungry, which tend to have a lot of sunlight. And so you’ve got this enormous potential. So anyway, I was the first person outside the lab — and this is where the vanity comes in — to eat a pancake made from this bacterial flour. A small flip for mankind. And amazingly, it tasted just like a pancake. We had to dilute it, because normally, if you’re making a western-style pancake, you start with your wheat flour, right. And that doesn’t have enough protein and fat to make a proper pancake. So you add eggs and milk. But in this case, because the bacterial flour is 60% protein and about 30% fat, you have to dilute it otherwise you’d make an omelet. So you mix it with wheat flour, bring the wheat flour in, and mix it with the wheat flour. And it was just uncanny. This is a pancake. It’s just an ordinary pancake. Now, obviously, they’re not just in the business of making pancakes, because what you can do is to produce the exact mix of proteins and fats and things that you need to replace animal products very, very cheaply — eventually — and with a tiny fraction of the land footprint, the water footprint, the nutrient footprint, all the key elements of what it takes to make food

Akshat Rathi  26:18  

That’s even after you account for the solar farms and the wind turbines and electrolyzers, that would split water that would be needed for all the hydrogen.

George Monbiot  26:28  

Absolutely. So on my estimates, you could, if you wanted to do it all in one place — and I very strongly advocate that we don’t, that it should be a highly distributed system —  but you could produce all the world’s protein in an area the size of Greater London. And that then gives us this tremendous ability to release land for ecosystems for rewilding. To bring back the forest and the wetlands and the savannas and the natural grasslands on which we depend, on which our entire life support systems depend. I mean, if we can’t restore much of what we’ve destroyed on this planet, the entire earth system is going to reach its tipping point. I mean, that again, seems clear. We’re seeing the flickering, these wild weather events that are hitting us more and more, look very much like the flickering in a complex system that precedes a tipping point.

Akshat Rathi  27:18  

So you’re looking at the food system, you’re saying, “Okay, we need proteins and vitamins and carbohydrates and fat, and the protein and the fat could come through this system.” But we’ve had vegetarian diets — I grew up in India with a vegetarian diet — for a very long time. They’re not being adopted more widely. So why do you think people would turn around and say, “Yes, George, you made a really good point. Let’s just all flip over now.”

George Monbiot  27:46  

It’s not going to happen like that. That’s not how change happens. I mean, change at the margin happens. And I’ve got a plant-based diet, and a small percentage of people in Europe have plant-based diets. But that is in no way catching up with the tremendous speed of expansion of animal farming. So we can’t rely on that moral suasion to get people to change. It’s partly going to be on price, that these new technologies have steep cost curves, and it’s not going to be long at all before they undercut even the cheapest form of plant protein — which is soya — which is a lot cheaper than any animal protein. So they’ll compete very well on price, but also on quality. I mean, the plant-based substitutes for meat, a lot of them are not great. And it’s because they are dealing with these big complex ingredients which have to be broken down and extracted. There’s a lot of processing involved. You have to disguise some of the flavors — particularly if using coconut — often the fats are greasy rather than juicy, you’ve got a whole lot of issues. And these can be much more easily tackled through precision fermentation, where you’re making the exact proteins and components that you want. So you have much less processing, much healthier products, cheaper products. First of all, you can replace the great majority of the meat we eat, which is the meat that comes from factory farming, that is in all the chicken nuggets and the burgers and the sausages and stuff. And then you can start moving up that value chain. But even more importantly, I think we’re going to see a great flowering of new diets, of things we can’t even conceive of, any more than the first Neolithic farmers to capture a wild cow were thinking about Camembert. There’s going to be a whole load of products emerging from these new technologies, which we haven’t imagined.

Akshat Rathi  29:29  

There was an ad that came out in 2000. I don’t know if you’ve seen it. A spaceship in the form of a Coca-Cola bottle lands on Mars. It shoots out straws and all the aliens — Martians — come and sip on the Coca-Cola and finish it up. And then they form a message on the planet that says “Send more Coke.” That is the kind of aspiration that sells, clearly. Do we need a “Send more Coke” version for this new form of eating?

George Monbiot  30:04  

Well, it certainly needs a publicity boost, because a lot of people say, “Oh, I’m not eating bacteria.” I say, “Well hang on a moment. First of all, you eat bacteria with every meal. In fact, worse than that, you’re composed to a large extent of bacteria.” And we deliberately add live bacteria into some of our food. I mean, let’s think about cheese, right? So cheese, you start with the mammary secretions from another species called a cow. And you mix those, traditionally, with a chemical extracted from the fourth stomach of a nursing calf called rennet. You mix it up with the mammary secretions, you create this wobbly mass of fat and protein. And then you inject bacteria into that. The bacteria digest that wobbly mass, and then that excrement turns into this yellow stinky stuff. And if you leave it long enough, it gets really nice and stinky and moldy. And then we eat that! And people say, “Ewww bacteria!” What we’re looking at, what’s coming out the end of this process is basically a flour. It’s just a protein-rich flour. That’s what it is. It happens to be made from bacterial cells, but you wouldn’t see the difference between that and any other flour — except it’s incredibly high in protein and fat, and you just smell it and go, “Oh, well, that’s nice.” Because we’ve got a very strong attraction to protein, as humans. And then you can turn that into anything. Without all the cruelty, without the epidemics of disease, without all the slaughterhouse, and the blood and the guts and the gore and stuff. And, you think microbial food is disgusting?

Akshat Rathi  31:42  

So the other solution, if we solve protein and fat with these precision fermentation vats, is to try and address the crop problem. And you look at perennials. What are those? 

George Monbiot  31:57  

So this is, I think, a really exciting way forward here. The great majority of our grain crops come from annual plants, in other words plants which live and die within one year. Large areas covered by annual plants are quite rare in nature. And they generally only occur in the wake of a disaster. So where a landslide, or a fire, or a volcanic eruption clears the ground. And the annual plants are specialists in colonizing bare ground, so they’ll quickly colonize it, they’ll reproduce very fast, and dominate for a couple of years. And then the longer lasting plants are perennials, which live more than one year. They then come in and swallow up that space and push the annuals out. So almost all our green crops are annual. And that means that to grow them, we need to create a disaster every year, we need to clear the land and we do it either by plowing or by spraying. And then we carry on spraying to kill the competition and to kill the pests which might eat these very tender little shoots which are coming up, and then we have to splash on the fertilizer and use loads of water and really pamper them to get them going. And it’s a catastrophic system.

For the past 100 years or so, some scientists have had the dream of replacing these annual crops with perennial crops because they see the enormous difference they can make in terms of environmental damage, but also potentially food security. And finally, at last, that dream has been realized, driven primarily by this group called The Land Institute in Salina, Kansas. One of the crops has gone all the way now and it’s fully commercialized, and it’s a variety of rice, which they have developed with Yunnan University in southern China. Already, there’s many thousands of hectares of this rice being grown. In some cases, it’s been harvested for six harvests continuously and is still producing the same yields as annual rice produces. And the farmers are desperate for it a) because there’s much less soil erosion involved, you don’t have to plow every year, I mean, eventually, you’ll have to replace the crops but after several years, rather than every year, and secondly, that they’re desperately short of labor, because a lot of the young people have moved to the cities. And of course, you don’t have to plant every year. So I’ve eaten this rice, it’s just the same as any other short grain rice, I really could not tell the difference. And then they’re developing a whole series of other grain crops now, types of wheat or related species to wheat, barley, sorghum, sunflower, beans, peas, lentils. Not all of them have gone very far down the line. Some of them are progressing faster than others. But they’re tremendously exciting, not just because you create less environmental damage by growing them, but also because they appear to be more resilient to environmental crises. So to give you an example, the Land Institute is developing this very promising perennial sunflower, and it’s been growing its blocks of perennial sunflowers alongside blocks of annual sunflowers. In one year, it was hit by a major drought that completely wiped out the annual sunflowers. The perennials just sailed through. And the reason for that is their roots are down deeper, their structures above ground are tougher and more robust. And yeah, they just shrugged the drought off.

Akshat Rathi  35:16  

The solutions you are suggesting may take the same industrial route that some of the solutions that are now problems have taken. So you might get consolidation, you might get these limited varieties being grown. Just like we have big agriculture, we might have big fermentation. Would that be okay?

George Monbiot  35:39   

Well, no. We have to be constantly on our guard against these tendencies: the tendency towards concentration, the tendency towards monopoly. There was a time when governments were, they had strong antitrust laws and they had weak intellectual property laws. But it’s turned on its head now. Now we have weakened trust laws and strong intellectual property laws. And that creates consolidation, drives the process of mergers and acquisitions as corporations try to concentrate intellectual property in one place. And that is deadly. And it doesn’t matter which sector you’re looking at, it’s harmful to competition, it’s harmful to human welfare, it’s harmful to workers. I mean, right across the board. This is bad news. And we’ve been given this great gift to humanity, which is precision fermentation, which has come along just when we need it most. Are we going to squander this by allowing a few big corporations to control it? Well, no, we must fight that. The problem is not the technology, it’s the same with all of these issues. It’s the control of the technology and the ownership of the technology. And that is something we need to get ahead of. And instead of sitting there and waiting for it to happen, we need to be campaigning vociferously to ensure that we have a distributed food system rather than a concentrated food system. Because that’s one of those elements of resilience. If it still has its backup systems and the circuit breakers and the modularity within the system — which a distributed and diverse food system can give you — then it’s much more likely that the system as a whole is resilient [rather] than this situation we’ve got today.

Akshat Rathi  37:16  

Now capitalism has its problems. But one thing it does while it’s concentrating capital, is it also makes things more efficient. And some of the solutions you’re suggesting need to become more efficient. And so how do you split the problems that capitalism brings from the advantages that it does have?

George Monbiot  37:34  

Is a very good question. And the answer always is regulation. I mean, I would love to see much more public ownership. And I don’t just mean state ownership, but community ownership. This orchard where we are today is part of a commons, which is managed collectively by the 220 plot holders, who run this allotment system. You can have a commons with technology. Linux is a classic example of a technological commons. You can have it with open source technology, you can have it with Creative Commons-licensed technology. I want to see far more of our economy directed into the commons. But even within the capitalist economy, which is a totally different economy to the commons, we need to see far more regulation, far more response to the generalized needs of humanity, rather than just the needs of shareholders. And with food, that is more of an issue than in virtually any other sector, because well, we all kind of depend on it.

Akshat Rathi  38:38  

If there was a billboard outside your house, what message would you put on it?

George Monbiot  38:42  

Ah, that’s a good question. Private sufficiency, public luxury.

Akshat Rathi  38:47  

Explain that.

George Monbiot  38:48  

There’s enough ecological space on Earth and enough physical space for us all to have wonderful public parks and public tennis courts and public swimming pools and public transport networks, to have luxurious public domains which we share. But there’s simply not enough for us all to have private luxury. Some people have private luxury only because other people don’t. If everyone had their own swimming pool and tennis court, London would be the size of England and England would be the size of Europe. Where would everyone else live? And there’s not enough ecological space as well. So we can have our own private sufficiency, our own small domain at home, where our basic needs are met. But if we want luxury, we do it together.

Akshat Rathi  39:32  

That was a fascinating conversation. Thanks for coming on the show.

George Monbiot  39:35  

It was a total pleasure. You asked all the right questions, thank you.

Akshat Rathi  39:42  

Food is such an integral part of our lives, but we rarely think about how it’s produced, and its stunning impact on the planet. If the numbers in our conversation didn’t already blow your mind, I’d highly recommend reading George’s book Regenesis. The solutions he lays out may seem fanciful, but they can work and they’re not the only technologies we have to tackle this problem. Thanks for listening to Zero. If you like the show, please rate review and subscribe. Tell a friend or tell your favorite farmer. If you’ve got a suggestion for a guest or topic or something you just want us to look into get in touch at zeropod@bloomberg.net. Zero’s producer is Oscar Boyd and senior producer is Christine Driscoll. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly. Many people helped make the show a success. This week, thanks to Sommer Saadi, a Podcast Producer in London, who makes sure that the growing podcast team always has food to eat. I’m Akshat Rathi, back next week.

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