US Business

Cougars of LA imperiled by more frequent wildfires

They are beautiful, powerful and stalk the hills above Los Angeles.

But more frequent wildfires caused by climate change have placed the survival of the city’s last remaining mountain lions in doubt, by increasing their exposures to car collisions and hostile encounters with their own kind.

Rachel Blakey of the University of California, Los Angeles led a study published Thursday in Current Biology examining the impact of the 2018 Woolsey fire, which scorched half the big cats’ habitat in the Santa Monica mountains.

The biggest takeaway: “It’s not just about how many animals perished in that fire — in this case two mountain lions,” she told AFP.

“We need to think about how that change in the landscape is then going to influence how these animals experience all the other stresses that they’re currently dealing with.”

Blakey, a native of Australia who has been researching California’s wildlife for about seven years, says she was “blown away” to learn that a city of 10 million people supported a population of mountain lions, also known as cougars.

The apex predators are one of two large cat species in the Western Hemisphere, along with jaguars found further south in Mexico and Central America.

Generally speaking, the species is healthy enough, explained Blakey, though their range was once much bigger, roaming from coast to coast before the arrival of Europeans to the Americas.

But there are pockets within California where the lions are hemmed in by urban areas and freeways, decreasing their genetic diversity and placing great pressures on their survival. Los Angeles is one such region. 

– More crossings, more fights – 

Over the past 20 years, the National Park Service (NPS) has been tracking this isolated population, which generally numbers around 10-12 individuals.

They had already noticed worrying signs of inbreeding, such as kinked tails and low-quality sperm, but the lions were nonetheless clinging on.

Blakey and NPS colleagues decided to leverage GPS and accelerometer data from tags on the animals to understand the impacts of the Woolsey fire, which burned 97,000 acres (40,000 hectares) in November 2018.

What they found was far from encouraging.

After the fire, the lions avoided the burned areas, which they previously used as cover to ambush their prey — deer and small mammals — as well as to avoid conflicts between males.

They also placed themselves at great risk by crossing more roads, including freeways.

Their rate of crossing Highway 101, a busy 10-lane freeway, increased from once every two years to once every four months.

Blakey said this change was “very, very striking considering these roads are the major source of mortality for this population.” 

The lions also had to put in a lot more work to eke out survival. 

They traveled nearly 400 kilometers a month on average compared to 250 kilometers, increasing their food needs and placing them at further risk of lethal skirmishes with other mountain lions. 

– Animal crossing –

One piece of good news from the study: contrary to residents’ fears, the lions remained deeply shy of humans, spending only four or five percent of their time in urban areas both before and after the fire.

Co-author Seth Riley of the NPS told AFP that while the population had since returned to their former range after the forest recovered, and the lions were back to their pre-fire numbers, climate change continued to pose risks.

“With climate change, there’s concern about more and bigger fires, and drought doesn’t help, which is something we’ve been experiencing for quite a while here,” he said.

Researchers and conservationists are placing great hope on the Wallis Annenberg wildlife crossing, a vegetated overpass currently under construction that was designed with the lions and other species in mind.

Some animals will of course continue to get hit, said Riley.

But they believe the crossing will help restore connectivity between the Santa Monica lions and other populations to the north, providing a much-needed boost to genetic exchange.

Biden campaigns in Pennsylvania, ground zero for midterms

US President Joe Biden will campaign Thursday alongside Senate candidate John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, ground zero in the Democrats’ struggle to avoid a wipeout in the midterms — and two years of political trench warfare for the White House.

Biden will visit Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, touting his administration’s signature infrastructure spending package with a tour of a newly repaired bridge, and then attending a fundraising event with Fetterman.

Fetterman, whose tattoos and love of hoodies and cargo shorts make him one of the most unusual-looking figures on the campaign trail, was once a runaway favorite in the battle against Republican candidate Mehmet Oz, a celebrity TV doctor. Even a stroke in May didn’t derail him, and his medical report this week declared Fetterman fit for work.

But the race has tightened, reflecting sinking Democratic hopes of maintaining the party’s already fragile control of Congress. The latest average of polls shows Fetterman’s nearly 11-point lead in mid-September whittled down to about five points.

Analysts say Pennsylvania is among a handful of races Democrats must win to keep the Senate after November 8, while the tussle for the House is even tougher.

Biden, hampered by approval ratings hovering in the low 40 percent range, has not been much help. Some Democratic candidates have even declared him a hindrance, asking him to keep away from their campaigns.

In a break with tradition, Biden has avoided large-scale rallies in favor of more intimate gatherings and policy announcements that he hopes can shift the momentum. Just this week, he gave speeches vowing to protect abortion access and explaining his attempts to tamp down high energy costs. 

But three weeks from voting day, Americans appear to be veering toward the Republican message that Democrats are failing on the economy.

That raises the likelihood of Republicans taking control of at least the House and quite possibly the Senate. 

And even just the House would give the increasingly far-right Republican party the ability to shut down Biden’s agenda and — as prominent figures are already threatening — attempt impeachment.

– Numbers don’t add up –

A New York Times/Siena poll this week showed that, of likely voters, 26 percent named worries over the economy as the top issue, while 18 percent listed inflation, which is at its highest rate in four decades.

That is not something Biden can fix quickly. This week also saw Bloomberg’s latest probability model giving a 100 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

Even on issues where Biden feels he has a winning hand, there are limits.

During his impassioned speech on abortion, the president tapped into widespread anger over the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the half-century-old Roe v. Wade ruling that enshrined national abortion rights.

Predicting a revolt by women voters at the ballot box, Biden said Republicans “ain’t seen nothing yet.” 

But the Siena poll does not bear that out: just five percent of likely voters named abortion as their top issue.

Parties controlling the White House nearly always suffer a loss of seats in Congress during midterms, so a heavy Democratic loss would be no surprise. 

Analysts with Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball election newsletter at the University of Virginia said that after giddy hopes of somehow defying gravity, the Democrats seem to be coming back to earth.

“The usual midterm headwinds remain for Democrats. It’s just tough for a party to thrive with an unpopular president and with the public having significant concerns about issues, like the economy and inflation,” they said Wednesday.

“This is why the House remains very likely to flip to the Republicans and why, despite the aforementioned challenges, Republican chances to win the Senate remain no worse than a coin flip.”

S.Africa paves way for cryptocurrency regulation

South Africa’s financial watchdog on Thursday declared cryptocurrency a financial product, paving way for the regulation of the assets in the continent’s most advanced economy.

The announcement comes in the wake of financial institutions and watchdogs around the world grappling on how to regulate digital currencies.

The decision by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) means financial firms dealing in cryptos will have to apply for licensing next year between June 1 and November 20.

“You cannot have a situation where you have entities operating outside the regulatory framework, it is not ideal, and certainly not in the public interest,” FSCA Commissioner Unathi Kamlana told a news briefing.

The crypto asset, which will not be issued by the central bank, will be tradeable, transferred or stored electronically “for the purpose of payment, investment”.

Robust travel demand boosts American Airlines' Q3 profits

American Airlines reported a strong third quarter Thursday, capitalizing on robust demand for travel that the company sees persisting as Covid-19 worries recede.

Echoing commentary from rivals such as United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, American scored a 13 percent jump in revenues compared with the 2019 period on lofty ticket prices, despite flying around 10 percent less capacity.

“Demand remains strong, and it’s clear that customers in the US and other parts of the world continue to value air travel and the ability to reconnect post-pandemic,” said American Chief Executive Robert Isom.

Profits for the quarter ending September 30 was $483 million, more than double the year-ago level with a 50 percent increase in revenues to $13.5 billion, a quarterly record.

After a devastating industry downturn during the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic, US carriers have begun to prosper in 2022 as more governments pare back restrictions.

Executives point to several factors that are overriding worries about inflation and rising recession risk: continuing “pent-up” travel demand following Covid-19 lockdowns; the shift to hybrid working that allows more travel; and industry-wide capacity constraints that are lifting plane ticket prices.

American released fourth-quarter forecasts that show continued strength, with its projection of between 50 and 70 cents per share in profits easily topping analyst expectations.

Shares rose 2.4 percent to $14.32 in pre-market trading.

Robust travel demand boosts American Airlines' Q3 profits

American Airlines reported a strong third quarter Thursday, capitalizing on robust demand for travel that the company sees persisting as Covid-19 worries recede.

Echoing commentary from rivals such as United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, American scored a 13 percent jump in revenues compared with the 2019 period on lofty ticket prices, despite flying around 10 percent less capacity.

“Demand remains strong, and it’s clear that customers in the US and other parts of the world continue to value air travel and the ability to reconnect post-pandemic,” said American Chief Executive Robert Isom.

Profits for the quarter ending September 30 was $483 million, more than double the year-ago level with a 50 percent increase in revenues to $13.5 billion, a quarterly record.

After a devastating industry downturn during the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic, US carriers have begun to prosper in 2022 as more governments pare back restrictions.

Executives point to several factors that are overriding worries about inflation and rising recession risk: continuing “pent-up” travel demand following Covid-19 lockdowns; the shift to hybrid working that allows more travel; and industry-wide capacity constraints that are lifting plane ticket prices.

American released fourth-quarter forecasts that show continued strength, with its projection of between 50 and 70 cents per share in profits easily topping analyst expectations.

Shares rose 2.4 percent to $14.32 in pre-market trading.

Turkish central bank cuts rates again as inflation rockets

Turkey’s central bank on Thursday cut its policy rate for the third consecutive month despite a plunging lira and an annual inflation rate that has soared over 83 percent.

Turkey’s monetary policymakers are bucking the global trend of central banks raising interest rates to combat inflation, as high borrowing rates cool down the economy and prices.

The latest decision comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the central bank would keep cutting rates every month for “as long as I am in power” — and despite inflation hitting 83.45 percent in September on an annual basis.

Erdogan wants to lower interest rates to single digits by the end of the year as he prioritises economic growth eight months before a general election — which could promise to be the closest since he came to power nearly two decades ago.

Turkish policymakers have insisted on following this unconventional economic model at the expense of an astronomical inflation.

The central bank said Thursday it was cutting its one-week repo rate to 10.5 percent from 12 percent, with a surge in consumer prices it said was “driven by the lagged and indirect effects of rising energy costs” caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The interest rate cut was widely anticipated, but the 150 basis points cut was larger than expected after two 100 basis points moves in both August and September.

The bank hinted that the easing cycle would end next month.

“The (Monetary Policy) Committee evaluated taking a similar step in the following meeting and ending the rate cut cycle,” the bank said.

Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at the London-based Capital Economics, said this guidance “appears to be an admission that lowering interest rates is hardly the right thing to be doing when inflation is so high.”

“But at the same time, it would take interest rates to nine percent and satisfy Erdogan’s wish to bring rates down into single digits,” he added. 

– ‘Re-election strategy’-

Inflation began to rise worldwide after economies emerged from Covid lockdowns but it worsened this year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy and food prices through the roof.

Erdogan, a vocal opponent of higher borrowing costs, has called high interest rates his “biggest enemy”. 

Earlier this month he vowed that while he remained in power, “the interest will continue to come down with each passing day, each passing week, each passing month.”

As a result, the Turkish lira keeps losing its value against the US dollar and is down 28 percent since January.   

“Erdogan’s economic re-election strategy is clear… use money from Russia and (the) Gulf to fund FX intervention to defend the lira, cut policy rates as far as possible to get credit and growth going,” BlueBay Asset Management analyst Timothy Ash said. 

The powerful Turkish leader has responded to the economic crisis by an overhaul of his foreign policy and repairing ties with his former rivals in the Arab world, including oil-rich Saudi Arabia. 

Additional trade-focussed deals with Russia have helped shore up Turkey’s dwindling foreign currency reserves and potentially given Erdogan enough breathing room to ride out the economic storm until the June election.

However, Washington has been warning Turkish companies and banks trading with Russia for several months they could face possible sanctions.

Elizabeth Rosenberg, the US assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, traveled to Ankara and Istanbul this week, the Department of the Treasury said. 

Her meetings “affirmed the importance of close partnership between the United States and Turkey in addressing the risks caused by sanctions evasion and other illicit financial activities.”

Philippines to get US military helicopters after scrapping Russia deal

The Philippines will acquire heavy-lift military helicopters from the United States, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said Thursday, after scrapping a deal to buy similar aircraft from Russia.

The government of his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte had signed a deal worth $216 million for 16 Mi-17 helicopters, but backed out in the months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of wide-ranging sanctions on Moscow.

Earlier Thursday, local media had quoted the Russian ambassador to the Philippines as saying that deal was still valid.

But Marcos said it was dead.

“We have secured an alternative supply (for heavy-lift helicopters) from the United States,” Marcos, who was elected president in May, told a business forum.

“Unfortunately, we made a down payment (to the Russian manufacturer) that we are hoping to negotiate to get at least a percentage of that back,” he added.

“But the deal as it stood maybe at the beginning of or in the middle of last year has already been cancelled.”

Russian ambassador Marat Pavlov, however, was quoted in local media as saying the manufacturer was still proceeding with the assembly of the Mi-17s.

The Russian embassy in Manila could not be reached for comment.

Marcos did not specify which US helicopter was chosen as the alternative, only that they will be manufactured in Poland.

The Philippine ambassador in Washington, Jose Romualdez, told reporters in August that Manila was looking at Chinooks to replace the Mi-17s.

Romualdez had separately told AFP in August that the decision to cancel the Mi-17 deal was triggered by the Ukraine war, and that Manila was also wary of violating a 2017 US law that sanctions anyone doing business with Russia’s intelligence or defence sectors.

The Philippines is a longtime US ally and began a modest military modernisation programme in 2012.

Until recently, its equipment included Vietnam War-era helicopters and World War II naval vessels used by the United States.

Stocks mostly slide on strong dollar

Asian and European equities mostly slid Thursday after overnight Wall Street losses, while the dollar jumped as surging inflation, interest rate hikes and recession fears returned to the fore.

London stocks also dipped and the pound ducked under $1.12, as British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government teetered on the brink of collapse after the resignation of home secretary Suella Braverman.

The haven dollar meanwhile soared above 150 yen for the first time since 1990, stoking speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene again to support the battered currency.

The greenback also rallied to a record high at 7.2790 against the offshore yuan, with the US unit boosted by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes.

– Risk rally fades –

“It looks like the latest risk rally is fading before it really got started,” IG analyst Chris Beauchamp told AFP.

“Markets are worrying about how the rising dollar will begin to break other economies, as it negates their efforts to control inflation by driving their currencies lower while making it more expensive to borrow for a host of emerging market nations.”

He added that disappointing earnings at electric carmaker Tesla “have soured what was a passably good start to the reporting season”.

The unease on trading floors, and concerns that runaway inflation is showing no sign of easing, also sent investors back into the safety of the dollar.

Added to the gloom, Truss looks to be doomed after only six weeks in charge, with her own Conservative MPs calling for her to quit and moves apparently afoot to remove her.

A parliament vote on banning fracking descended into chaos late Wednesday, prompting talk that it was the final nail in the coffin of her premiership.

– ‘Further UK turbulence likely’ –

That came days after the sacking of finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and the dismembering of the Truss government’s debt-fuelled budget that had sparked chronic markets turmoil.

“The UK was already facing immense challenges from high inflation, rapidly rising interest rates and an economy already probably in recession,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam told AFP.

“The last thing it needed was an incompetent and unstable government to complete the set,” he said.

“The pound and UK bond yields … both remain vulnerable as the economy finds itself facing enormous headwinds — and the government is on the brink of collapse. Further turbulence looks likely.”

After Wall Street’s drop, markets across Asia were also deep in the red.

Selling was also fuelled by concerns about the Chinese economy as Covid cases spike in the country and leaders stick to lockdown strategies.

A decision to delay the release of China’s third-quarter economic growth data this week added to the unease among investors.

Oil extended Wednesday’s rally that came in reaction to a drop in US petroleum stockpiles, and despite President Joe Biden’s decision to release 15 million barrels from US strategic reserves.

– Key figures around 1040 GMT –

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 6,907.59 points

Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.8 percent at 12,643.00

Paris – CAC 40: FLAT at 6,039.51

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.5 percent at 3,455.42

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.9 percent at 27,006.96 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.4 percent at 16,280.22 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,035.05 (close)

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 30,423.81 (close)

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.1216 from $1.1219 on Wednesday

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 149.78 yen from 149.90 yen

Euro/dollar: UP at $0.9806 from $0.9773 

Euro/pound: UP at 87.39 pence from 87.11 pence

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.5 percent at $93.77 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.0 percent at $87.24 per barrel

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Turkish central bank cuts rates for third month

Turkey’s central bank on Thursday cut its policy rate for the third consecutive month despite plunging lira and an annual inflation rate that has soared over 83 percent. 

The central bank said it was cutting its one-week repo rate to 10.5 percent from 12 percent, with a surge in consumer prices it said was “driven by the lagged and indirect effects of rising energy costs” caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine. 

The decision comes right after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the central bank would keep cutting rates every month for “as long as I am in power”. 

Erdogan wants interest rates to lower down to single digits by the end of the year as he prioritises economic growth eight months before a general election — which could promise to be the closest since he came to power nearly two decades ago. 

Turkish decision makers have insisted on following this unconventional economic model at the expense of an astronomical inflation.

Erdogan, a vocal opponent of higher borrowing costs, has called high interest rates his “biggest enemy”. 

Earlier this month he vowed that while he remained in power, “the interest will continue to come down with each passing day, each passing week, each passing month.”

As a result, Turkish lira keeps losing its value against the US dollar and is down 28 percent since January.   

“Erdogan’s economic re-election strategy is clear… use money from Russia and (the) Gulf to fund FX intervention to defend the lira, cut policy rates as far as possible to get credit and growth going,” BlueBay Asset Management analyst Timothy Ash said. 

The powerful Turkish leader has responded to the economic crisis by an overhaul of his foreign policy and repairing ties with his former rivals in the Arab world, including oil-rich Saudi Arabia. 

Additional trade-focussed deals with Russia have helped shore up Turkey’s dwindling foreign currency reserves and potentially given Erdogan enough breathing room to ride out the economic storm until the June election.

However, Washington has been warning Turkish companies and banks trading with Russia for several months they could face possible sanctions.

US assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes Elizabeth Rosenberg traveled to Ankara and Istanbul this week, the Department of the Treasury said. 

Rosenberg’s meetings “affirmed the importance of close partnership between the United States and Turkey in addressing the risks caused by sanctions evasion and other illicit financial activities.”

EU leaders fight for common ground on energy prices

EU leaders are set for tough talks on how to handle Europe’s energy shock Thursday, with capitals at loggerheads over imposing a cap on gas prices pushed skywards by the war in Ukraine.

The bloc’s 27 member states have been squabbling for months over measures to lower energy bills, and will arrive at their Brussels summit in a chilly mood.

Countries such as Italy are pushing hard for a swift and ambitious cap on prices, in the teeth of opposition from Germany, the EU’s biggest economy.

The political pressure to act is huge with strikes and protests over the cost of living spreading across Europe – notably in France and Belgium – and businesses fearing bankruptcy because of the high bills.

If this summit does not result in a “clear political signal that we…no longer tolerate high gas prices”, it will be “Europe’s failure”, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said on Monday.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, has tried to satisfy the diverging views with a series of proposals that it hopes will help Europeans pay for their heating as winter approaches.

But these have been dismissed as timid by those wanting a clear ceiling on gas prices despite the opposing view – championed by Germany, but also Denmark and the Netherlands – that this would choke off supply or encourage consumption.

The push for a common approach has been further hampered by discord between France and Germany, which burst into the open Wednesday when they delayed a regular meeting between cabinet ministers.

Breakthroughs in the EU are difficult to achieve when the bloc’s biggest powers do not see eye to eye and French President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz were set to meet ahead of the summit to mend ties.

“There has been a lot of progress, but no fundamental breakthrough,” a senior EU diplomat involved in the negotiations said ahead of the two-day summit.

“Priorities differ: Germany has chosen security of supply because it can afford the high prices, but many countries cannot keep up with the cost,” the diplomat added.

– ‘Slow and painstaking’ –

The Commission’s proposals include an idea to allow joint purchases by the EU energy giants in order to command cheaper prices to replenish reserves.

Another proposal is to give the Commission the power to establish a pricing “corridor” on Europe’s main gas index to intervene when prices get out of control.

Meeting in Brussels, the EU leaders will haggle over the Commission’s proposals, with some countries seeking something much more far-reaching than what is on offer.

But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday again rejected any attempt by the EU to cap prices on gas imports saying it “carries the risk that producers will then sell their gas elsewhere.”

However, Scholz welcomed the European Commission’s proposal for joint purchases in the EU.

A big problem in Europe is the link between gas and electricity prices. Under EU rules, a gas price index helps set the price of electric power across the continent, even if sourced from nuclear energy, renewables or coal.

But the index has skyrocketed since Ukraine was invaded by Russia, the country that supplied 40 percent of the EU’s gas imports before the war.

Several countries – including nuclear powered France – are calling for an exception to the gas price mechanism while the commission draws up a new system that better reflects market reality.

This was already granted to Spain and Portugal earlier this year, giving them freer rein to keep electricity prices lower despite surging prices.

“We should not have to ask the Commission four times for the same thing in order to have a proposal,” Spain’s Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera told AFP ahead of the summit.

“It is frustrating to see how slow and painstaking Europe’s response to the challenge we face is,” Ribera said.

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