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The US military must be ready to respond to a potential invasion of Taiwan as soon as this year, a senior admiral said Wednesday, signaling heightened alarm over Beijing’s intentions towards the island.

Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, is the latest senior official in Washington to raise concerns that China’s President Xi Jinping may be much more willing than previously thought to seize Taiwan. 

His comments came as Taiwan’s top security official warned any attempt to invade the island would fail and turn China into an international pariah. 

Xi is on the cusp of securing a third five-year term at the helm of the world’s most populous nation, delivering a landmark Communist Party Congress speech on Sunday where he restated his vow to one day “reunify,” or forcefully take, Taiwan.

In a discussion with a think-tank, Gilday was asked about Xi’s speech and whether he agreed with comments by another US admiral that Beijing would be ready to take Taiwan by 2027. 

“It’s not just what President Xi says, it’s how the Chinese behave and what they do,” Gilday told the Atlantic Council. 

“And what we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it.”

“So when we talk about the 2027 window in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window,” he added. 

“I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that. It’s just that we can’t wish that away.”

– ‘No chance’ –

China’s Communist Party has never controlled Taiwan but it claims the self-ruled island as its own.

Taiwan is not a treaty ally of the United States, but Congress is bound by law to sell Taipei defensive weapons and there is bipartisan support for protecting what has become a progressive democracy and vital global trade partner.

Beijing’s stance has long been that it seeks “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan but reserves the right to use force if necessary, especially if the island formally declares independence.

The rhetoric and actions towards Taiwan have become more pronounced under Xi, China’s most assertive leader in a generation, and the military has ramped up equipment purchases aimed at pulling off an invasion.

Xi has tied taking Taiwan to his vision of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and said the goal of reunification cannot continue to be passed indefinitely from generation to generation.

Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine, which China has not condemned, has also raised fears that Beijing might take similar moves against Taiwan’s 23 million people.

Military analysts have long warned that even with strength in numbers invading Taiwan is a difficult task, given its location and terrain.

Taiwan’s national security chief Chen Ming-tong echoed that sentiment and delivered his own warning to Xi. 

“I want to solemnly tell the Beijing authorities that there is no chance of winning to attack Taiwan by force,” he told reporters on Thursday in Taipei. 

“It would lead to international economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, ruining his (Xi’s) ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ and making him a sinner of the Chinese nation.”

On Monday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned that Beijing wants to seize Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” than previously considered, adding that “a very different China” had emerged under Xi. 

Blinken also warned any war over Taiwan would have an “enormous” impact on global trade. 

US President Joe Biden will campaign Thursday alongside Senate candidate John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, ground zero in the Democrats’ struggle to avoid a wipeout in the midterms — and two years of political trench warfare for the White House.

Biden will visit both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, touting his administration’s signature infrastructure spending package.

Fetterman, whose love of hoodies and cargo shorts makes him one of the most unusual-looking figures on the campaign trail, was once a runaway favorite in the battle against Republican candidate Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor.

But the race has tightened, reflecting sinking Democratic hopes of maintaining the party’s already fragile control of Congress. The latest average of polls shows Fetterman’s nearly 11-point lead in mid-September whittled down to about five points.

Analysts say Pennsylvania is among a handful of races Democrats must win to keep the Senate after November 8, while the tussle for the House is even tougher.

Biden’s attempts to shift momentum have so far had limited effect. He is also unpopular, with an average of 42.3 percent in approval ratings, so his campaign appearances may not help.

The Thursday trip follows speeches in Washington where Biden vowed to protect abortion access and called for lower energy prices.

But three weeks from voting day, Americans appear to be veering toward the Republican message.

That raises the likelihood of Republicans taking control of at least the House and quite possibly the Senate. 

Even just the House would give the increasingly far-right Republican party the ability to shut down Biden’s agenda and — as prominent figures are already threatening — attempt impeachment.

– Numbers don’t add up –

A New York Times/Siena poll this week showed that, of likely voters, 26 percent named worries over the economy as the top issue while 18 percent listed inflation, which is at its highest rate in four decades.

That is not something Biden can fix quickly. This week also saw Bloomberg’s latest probability model giving a 100 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

Even on issues where Biden feels he has a winning hand, there are limits.

During his impassioned speech on abortion, the president tapped into widespread anger over the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the half-century-old Roe v. Wade ruling that enshrined national abortion rights.

Predicting a revolt by women voters at the ballot box, Biden said Republicans “ain’t seen nothing yet.” 

But the Siena poll does not bear that out: just five percent of likely voters named abortion as their top issue.

Parties controlling the White House nearly always suffer a loss of seats in Congress during midterms, so a heavy Democratic loss would be no surprise. 

Analysts with Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball election newsletter at the University of Virginia said that after giddy hopes of somehow defying gravity, the Democrats seem to be coming back to earth.

“The usual midterm headwinds remain for Democrats. It’s just tough for a party to thrive with an unpopular president and with the public having significant concerns about issues, like the economy and inflation,” they said Wednesday.

“This is why the House remains very likely to flip to the Republicans and why, despite the aforementioned challenges, Republican chances to win the Senate remain no worse than a coin flip.”

Ukraine has urged residents to drastically restrict their electricity consumption starting Thursday to cope with the destruction of power stations by the Russian army as winter approaches. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said after a meeting with energy companies that they were preparing “for all possible scenarios with a view to winter”, as Kyiv accused Moscow of orchestrating a “mass deportation” of civilians from the occupied region of Kherson.

Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed martial law on Wednesday in four areas recently annexed by the Kremlin, with his forces raining down munitions across Ukraine, including on Kyiv and the country’s west, which had previously been spared the brunt of the onslaught.

In an evening address, Zelensky warned that “Russian terror will be directed at energy facilities”, and urged the country to conserve electricity starting at 7 am (0400 GMT) on Thursday.

He added that the government was “working on the creation of mobile power supply points for critical infrastructure in cities and villages”.

Kyiv mayor Vitaliy Klitschko asked residents of the capital not to turn on major electrical appliances, saying “even a small saving and reduction of electricity consumption in each residence will help to stabilise the national energy system’s operation”.

Ukraine said it had downed “several Russian rockets” over Kyiv in the third consecutive day of attacks on the capital, with Zelensky saying 10 Iranian-made drones aimed at the city had also been destroyed Wednesday.

– Creating ‘panic’ –

A Ukrainian representative called the push by Russia to evacuate Kherson the “equivalent of deportation”. The city has been in Moscow’s hands since the earliest days of the invasion.

Putin’s “aim is to create a kind of panic in Kherson and an image (to fuel) propaganda”, Sergiy Khlan said, adding that Ukrainian forces were still pushing their counter-offensive southward. 

He said the Russians were using the evacuations as a pretext to justify “their withdrawal from Kherson and more generally from the right bank” of the Dnieper River.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, criticised Moscow’s move as criminal.

“Putin’s martial law in the annexed regions of Ukraine is preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to depressed areas of Russia in order to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory,” Danilov said.

Pro-Russian officials in the town of Oleshky across the Dnieper said residents from Kherson city were already arriving.

Russia’s Rossiya 24 TV showed images of people waiting to board ferries, unable to use bridges damaged by Ukraine.

Vladimir Saldo, the Kherson region’s Moscow-installed head, told Russian state television that the city’s administration would relocate east of the Dnieper.

– Sakharov Prize –

With developments on the ground gathering pace, Putin’s introduction of military rule in the Moscow-controlled territories also gives additional power to authorities in southern Russian regions bordering Ukraine to quash dissent.

“We are working on solving very complex large-scale tasks to ensure security and protect the future of Russia,” Putin said.

Local officials said they were planning to move up to 60,000 civilians from Kherson over roughly six days.

Separately, the secretary of Russia’s National Security Council Nikolay Patrushev said around five million people from Russian-held parts of Ukraine had “found shelter” in Russia.

Ukraine’s resilience has won plaudits internationally and the European Parliament on Wednesday awarded the annual Sakharov Prize for human rights to “brave” Ukrainians.

Zelensky tweeted in response: “Ukrainians prove dedication to the values of freedom, democracy every day on the battlefield.”

Meanwhile, in parts of Ukraine recently recaptured from Russian forces, repairs were under way before the onset of winter, with many residents still depending on humanitarian aid.

“Apart from this, nothing is working,” said Ivan Zakharchenko, a 70-year-old resident of Izyum queueing for aid in the square where Zelensky celebrated the town’s liberation just over a month ago.

– Nuclear plant staff detained –

Ukraine has recaptured occupied eastern territory in recent weeks. Its advance in the south, while far slower, has been gaining momentum.

There have been some advances on the Russian side too, with Moscow reporting Tuesday its troops had retaken territory in eastern Kharkiv region. 

Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said it was working on building a “multi-level and layered defence” in the Lugansk region.

Russian forces, meanwhile, continue to occupy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Petro Kotin, head of Ukraine’s nuclear energy agency Energoatom, told AFP Wednesday that Russian forces were currently holding about 50 plant employees.

– EU to sanction Iran –

Russia’s strikes following Ukrainian battlefield gains have demolished large parts of Ukraine’s power grid ahead of winter.

The government has warned of the risk of blackouts, saying about 30 percent of Ukraine’s power stations have been destroyed. 

After strikes Monday and Tuesday, multiple explosions were heard in central Kyiv on Wednesday.

Kyiv and Western allies have accused Moscow of using Iranian-made drones, with Ukraine saying it has successfully shot down 233 of them since mid-September.

The Kremlin and Iran have denied this, but EU foreign policy spokeswoman Nabila Massrali said the EU had “sufficient evidence” and would prepare fresh sanctions on Iran.

Sixty years ago the Cuban missile crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Here is a look at how the standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union unfolded:

– Missiles deployed –

On May 21, 1962, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev decides to place medium- and intermediate-range nuclear missiles on the island of Cuba, Moscow’s communist ally in the Caribbean.

He justifies the decision by the fact that Cold War rival the United States could deploy nuclear weapons from NATO member Turkey, which bordered the then Soviet Union.

On September 4, US President John F. Kennedy warns that the “gravest consequences” will follow if significant Soviet offensive weapons are introduced into Cuba.

On October 14, a US U2 spy plane confirms that Soviet missiles were being deployed on Cuba, a mere 145 kilometres (90 miles) from the coast of Florida, and therefore within striking range of northeastern cities.

– 13-day crisis –

For 13 days a terrifying game of geo-political poker pits the young Kennedy against the fiery Khrushchev.

On October 16, Kennedy is briefed on a spy plane’s high-resolution photos. He weighs whether to order a naval blockade or an invasion.

The next day US military units begin moving to bases in the southeastern United States as intelligence photos from another U-2 flight show additional sites, and 16 to 32 missiles.

– Cuba under ‘quarantine’ –

On October 22 Kennedy writes to Khrushchev.

“I have not assumed that you or any other sane man would in this nuclear age, deliberately plunge the world into war which it is crystal clear no country could win and which could only result in catastrophic consequences to the whole world, including the aggressor,” he writes.

That evening he speaks on television and announces the establishment of a naval “quarantine” or blockade around Cuba and orders preparations for a landing on the island.

The Organization of American States backs Washington.

The next day ships of the naval quarantine fleet move into place around Cuba. 

Four nuclear-armed Soviet submarines move into the Caribbean. 

Soviet freighters bound for Cuba with military supplies freeze their positions.

Khrushchev protests in a letter to Kennedy “You are no longer appealing to reason, but wish to intimidate us.”

The military of the Soviet Union and its eastern bloc allies are put on alert.

On October 26, Cuban leader Fidel Castro urges Khrushchev to initiate a nuclear first strike against the United States in the event of a US invasion of Cuba.

In a letter to Kennedy, Khrushchev proposes removing Soviet missiles and personnel if the United States guarantees not to invade Cuba.

– Spy plane shot down –  

The next day a US U-2 spy plane is shot down over Cuba, killing its pilot, Rudolph Anderson, who becomes the sole fatality of the crisis.

Kennedy receives a new letter from Khrushchev demanding the removal of US missiles in Turkey in exchange for the removal of the Soviet missiles. Kennedy promises not to invade Cuba and to lift the blockade if the missiles are removed.

On October 28, Khrushchev backs down, agreeing to dismantle the installations and return the missiles to the Soviet Union, ending the crisis.

In an additional secret agreement, the United States agrees to eventually remove its Jupiter missiles from Turkey.

On November 20 Kennedy lifts the Cuba blockade.

– The aftermath –

The next year a “hotline” is set to link the US and Soviet leaders by telex. Up to then they had only communicated via their respective ambassadors.

Sixteen months earlier, in February 1962, following Cuba’s expropriations of US companies, Kennedy had imposed a strict economic and financial embargo on the island.

It would take another half a century for US President Barack Obama and Cuban leader Raul Castro in December 2014 to announce the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Sources: John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, AFP archives

For 60 years, the Cuban missile crisis has loomed both as a frightening lesson on how close the world came to nuclear doomsday — and how skillful leadership averted it.

With Russian President Vladimir Putin brandishing the nuclear option in Ukraine, the threat has come roaring back, but this time, experts are less certain of a way to end it.

US President Joe Biden in early October warned bluntly that the world risked nuclear destruction for the first time since 1962, saying that Putin was “not joking” about the use of the ultra-destructive weapons as his military is “significantly underperforming” in its invasion of Ukraine.

Biden said he was looking to provide “off-ramps” to Putin. But there is no sign Putin is eager to take one.

“I think this situation, more than any since 1962, could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons,” said George Perkovich, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“I’ve been working in this field for 40 years and this is the most challenging situation because you have a nuclear-armed state, Russia, whose leader has defined a situation as an existential one.”

Unlike in 1962, the world is now facing a number of nuclear flashpoints with signs North Korea is gearing up for another atomic test, tensions still on low-boil between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan and Iran ramping up nuclear work.

But Ukraine poses unique dangers as the conflict pits the world’s two largest nuclear powers against each other. Any Russian strike would be expected to involve tactical nuclear weapons — targeted on the battlefield and not fired between continents — but Biden himself has warned it is difficult not to “end up with Armageddon” once a nuclear weapon is used.

Putin, who has questioned Ukraine’s historical legitimacy, has proclaimed the annexation of four regions and suggested that either an attack on the annexed “Russian” territory or direct Western intervention could lead Russia to use a nuclear weapon.

– Bigger stakes? –

The brutal war that has already gone on for eight months is substantively different than the Cuban crisis, where the question was how to prevent a Cold War confrontation over the discovery of Soviet nuclear weapons on the island from turning hot.

US president John F. Kennedy, in one of his taped deliberations pored over by historians, said that European allies thought Washington was “demented” by its fixation on Cuba, some 90 miles (140 kilometers) from Florida with a long history of US intervention.

“Ukraine is significantly more important to America’s allies than Cuba was,” said Marc Selverstone, a Cold War historian at the University of Virginia.

“Putin seems to be willing to rearrange the borders of Europe, and that’s terrifying to Europeans.”

Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev’s motives, while broad, were less rigid than Putin’s, with Moscow in part seeking to close a missile gap with the United States and gain leverage with the West over divided Berlin.

Political stakes were high for Kennedy, who was embarrassed by the failed CIA Bay of Pigs invasion a year earlier to oust communist revolutionary Fidel Castro and was days away from congressional elections.

But Kennedy rejected advice for air strikes and imposed a naval “quarantine” against further Soviet shipments — avoiding the term blockade, which would have been an act of war.

Moscow withdrew after Kennedy promised not to invade Cuba and, quietly, to pull US nuclear missiles from Turkey.

“For Kennedy, the most important thing was to lessen the chance for a nuclear exchange,” Selverstone said.

“I don’t know if that’s foremost in Vladimir Putin’s mind right now. In fact, he seems to be to be upping the ante.”

– ‘Raising their red lines’ –

Both in 1962 and now, the nuclear powers faced an added layer of uncertainty from allies on the ground.

On October 27, 1962, just as Khrushchev and Kennedy were exchanging messages, a US U-2 spy plane was shot down over Cuba, killing a US pilot.

Kennedy ignored calls to retaliate, surmising — correctly, the historical record proved — that the order to fire came not from the Soviets but from Cuba. 

Khrushchev announced a deal the next day, with his son later writing that he feared the situation was spiraling out of control.

In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to build on momentum and win back all land occupied by Russia.

The United States has shipped billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine but Biden has stopped short of sending missiles that could strike into Russia, saying he will not risk “World War III.”

“Zelensky and Putin have both taken maximalist positions, raising their red lines, whereas in 1962, Kennedy and Khrushchev were lowering them,” Selverstone said.

Perkovich said that Biden, for whom he worked when he was a senator, was as calm and historically well-versed as any US president in handling a crisis.

But he said that 2022 is also a different era. In 1962, Russia agreed to keep Kennedy’s agreement to pull US missiles from Turkey a secret, mindful of the political risks for the president.

“Many crises in history get resolved through secret diplomacy,” Perkovich said.

“Can you imagine now in this media age, with open-source intelligence and social media, keeping a deal secret like that?”