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The United States will on Wednesday carry a Russian to the International Space Station aboard a SpaceX ship, in a voyage that carries symbolic significance amid the Ukraine war.

Anna Kikina, the only female cosmonaut in service, is part of the Crew-5 mission, which also includes one Japanese and two American astronauts.

Blast-off is set for noon from the Kennedy Space Center, with the weather forecast so far promising.

Two weeks ago, an American astronaut took off on a Russian Soyuz rocket for the orbital platform.

The long-planned astronaut exchange program has been maintained despite soaring tensions between the two countries since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

Ensuring the operation of the ISS has become one of the few remaining areas of cooperation between the United States and Russia.

“When you each are flying other’s crew members, you know that you have a huge responsibility that you’re promising to the other country,” NASA associate administrator Kathy Lueders told reporters in a recent press conference.

“At a working level, we really appreciated the constancy in the relationship, even during some really, really tough times geopolitically.”

– Fifth female cosmonaut – 

Kikina, 38 and an engineer by training, will become the fifth Russian female professional cosmonaut to go into space.

“I hope in the near future we have more women in the cosmonaut corps,” the Novosibirsk native told AFP in August.

The Soviet Union put the first woman in space, Valentina Tereshkova, in 1963, nearly 20 years before the first American woman Sally Ride. Since then, America has flown dozens more women.

It will also be the first spaceflight for American astronauts Nicole Mann and Josh Cassada, but the fifth for Japan’s Koichi Wakata.

After a journey of about 30 hours, their ship will dock with the station on Thursday, ready to begin a five-month science mission and relieve the four members of Crew-4, who will stay a few days for handover.

Crew-5’s arrival will bring the total number of astronauts on the ISS to 11, including two other Russians and an American who arrived on the recent Soyuz.

– ISS future unclear – 

Kikina will be the first Russian to fly with Elon Musk’s SpaceX which, along with Boeing, has a “taxi service” contract with NASA.

Musk himself waded into the conflict Thursday by proposing a peace deal that involved re-running, under UN supervision, annexation referendums in Moscow-occupied regions of Ukraine and acknowledging Russian sovereignty over the Crimean peninsula. 

The post enraged Ukrainians, including the country’s envoy to Germany, who responded with an expletive. 

Tensions between Moscow and Washington have increased considerably in the space field after the announcement of American sanctions against the Russian aerospace industry, in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia thus announced this summer that it wanted to leave the ISS “after 2024” in favor of creating its own station, albeit without setting a precise date.

The director of manned flights at Roscosmos, Sergei Krikaliov, declared Monday he hoped the Russian government agrees to extend participation in the ISS after 2024.

The United States, for its part, wants to continue operating until at least 2030, then transition to commercially run stations.

As things stand, the ISS cannot function without joint cooperation, as the US side is responsible for power and life support and the Russian side for propulsion and maintaining orbit.

Between 2011 — when the Space Shuttle program ended — and SpaceX’s first flight to the ISS in 2020, the United States was dependent on Russia for flying its crew to the station, paying tens of millions of dollars per seat.

The loss of this monopoly represents a significant income reduction for the Russian space program. The current crew exchange program, by contrast, is a barter-based agreement with no exchange of money.

Vietnamese fisherman Nguyen Van Loc has been attacked by Chinese coast guard vessels so many times, he has lost count.

One summer day in 2020, while sailing through the Paracel Islands — resource-rich waters in the South China Sea claimed by both Hanoi and Beijing — his boat was rammed by a Chinese ship repeatedly until it capsized.

Thirteen of his crewmen were left clinging to a fishing basket in the water, desperately awaiting help.

Loc, 43, was beaten over and over, while his boat was stripped of their catch, tools and fishing gear.

Some years before that, two Chinese vessels with large machine guns — and crew armed with axes — slammed into Loc’s boat and followed them closely as they tried to make their way home.

Now swathes of the disputed sea – where he began fishing as a boy aged 15 — are no-go zones, while other parts are so overfished that he spends just an hour where he used to pass the whole day.

“We used to get scared,” Loc told AFP. “But now this is just our normal life.”

Vietnam’s ministry of foreign affairs asked Beijing to investigate the incident — widely reported in Vietnamese media — at the time, and other fishermen from Ly Son island told AFP of similar experiences of harassment at sea.

Since 2014, 98 Vietnamese boats have been destroyed by Chinese vessels, according to figures from the local fishing association on Ly Son, home to hundreds of fishermen and their families whose livelihoods depend on trips out to sea.

Beijing claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, a waterway of immense strategic importance through which trillions of dollars worth of trade transits every year.

There are rival claims to part of the sea from neighbours including Vietnam, but China has become increasingly aggressive in asserting itself in the area under President Xi Jinping, who is expected to secure a record third consecutive term this month.

– Flags shot down –

Close to the water’s edge, where a line of women wearing traditional conical hats sorts the day’s catch, lies Ly Son’s ship repair yard. But it is ill-equipped to handle the hefty damage inflicted on the boats.

Many are forced to sail to the mainland, putting them out of action for days.

Beijing gained control of the Paracel Islands in 1974 after clashes with the South Vietnamese Navy that left 75 Vietnamese troops dead.

Today, Chinese coast guard vessels shoot down the Vietnamese flags that flutter over the cabin of each fishing boat, according to Ly Son’s fishing association, and mostly the crew have no choice but to sail away, fearful of the consequences if they stand their ground. 

Over the last three decades, 120 fishermen from Ly Son have died due to attacks by Chinese vessels or because boats from China refused to come to their aid during poor weather, the local fishing association said.

“Our vessels are small,” said Loc. “If we are chased, then we run.”

But Loc, like many of his fellow fishermen, remains committed to the waters, where his grandfather and father fished before him. 

“This fishing ground belonged to our ancestors, we will never give it up.”

Major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia were set to meet Wednesday as reports said they were mulling an output cut of up to two million barrels per day in a bid to prop up slumping prices.

If implemented, it would be the first such major cut since a landmark curb on production at the start of the Covid pandemic.

Energy prices soared after Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year, pushing inflation to decades-high levels that have put pressure on economies across the world.

But they have fallen in recent months on concerns over dwindling demand and a slowdown in the global economy.

The 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, and their 10 allies headed by Russia will hold their first in-person meeting since March 2020 at the group’s headquarters in Vienna.

Collectively known as OPEC+, the alliance drastically slashed output by almost 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2020 to reverse a massive drop in crude prices caused by Covid lockdowns.

OPEC+ began to raise production last year after the market improved. Output returned to pre-pandemic levels this year, but only on paper as some members have struggled to meet their quotas.

The group agreed last month on a small, symbolic cut of 100,000 bpd from October, the first in more than a year.

– ‘Sizeable cut’? –

Most oil ministers were reluctant to divulge information on possible output cuts as they started to arrive in Vienna.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said Tuesday that the group was still reviewing market data.

“Let’s wait… We will have to listen to the technical team,” he told journalists.

But Bloomberg said officials were discussing the removal of about two million bpd out of the market from November, twice as much as earlier predictions.

“A sizeable cut now looks on the cards, the question is whether it will be large enough to offset the demand destruction caused by the impending economic downturn,” said Craig Erlam, an analyst at trading platform OANDA.

After soaring close to $140 per barrel in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, oil prices have dropped below the $90 mark.

According to the UBS bank, a cut of at least 500,000 bpd would be necessary to stop the price plunge.

In anticipation of Wednesday’s meeting, oil prices jumped further on Tuesday, with Brent above $90 and WTI around $86, though still far below their March peak.

– Tighter taps ‘unwelcome’ –

Consumer countries have pushed for OPEC+ to open taps more widely to bring down prices — calls that the group has largely ignored.

US President Joe Biden made a controversial trip to Saudi Arabia in July in part to convince the kingdom to loosen the production taps. The trip saw Biden meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman despite his promise to make Riyadh a “pariah” following the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

“Any cut would be unwelcome as it’s not the right time for cutting oil supplies to push prices higher,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a Swissquote analyst.

“The global energy crisis, soaring inflation and looming recession already worry the Western leaders,” she said ahead of the Vienna gathering.

“Knowing that Russia is willing to cut output, the move could also be perceived as another escalation of the geopolitical tensions” between Moscow and the West.

Observers have cast doubt on how much more OPEC+ could possibly pump, with some of its members already struggling to meet quotas.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB research group, predicted it would be “very easy for the group to implement cuts given that most members are stretched to the limit of what they can produce”.

He said Saudi Arabia was currently producing 11 million bpd.

“It hasn’t maintained such a high production more than twice in history and then only for 1-2 months,” he said.

Europe may fear an energy crisis over the coming winter, but for Iraqis an unstable power supply and frequent blackouts have been a reality during decades of war and turmoil.

The Middle Eastern country is rich in oil, but endemic corruption and devastating conflict have taken a heavy toll on its infrastructure and forced most of its 42 million people to adapt. 

The noise of privately owned generators can be heard all over the country as households and businesses try to make up for supply shortfalls from the national electricity company.

“Without generators, Iraq would go completely dark,” Mohammed Jabr, a retired public servant, told AFP in his yard in Sadr City, a working-class district of the capital Baghdad.

Ensuring a stable power supply, he said, requires resourcefulness and money when the national grid can go down for four to 10 hours a day in peak summer consumption, according to electricity ministry data.

Generators “provide the electricity we need for the television, fridge, air cooler”, said the 62-year-old former accountant.

He pays $50 a month in generator subscription fees — but even that isn’t always enough to keep a whole house running.

“A client may have to turn the fridge off to keep the air conditioner on,” explained Khaled al-Shablawi, who has worked for a generator service for 13 years.

– ‘Plunged into darkness’ –

Soaring energy prices fuelled by Russia’s war in Ukraine have forced a new reality upon European nations, where people are asked to limit the electricity they use for heating, lighting and cooking.

Some cities keep street lights on for shorter lengths of time, and in Paris, the lights illuminating the Eiffel Tower are switched off an hour earlier now to save energy.

But to Jabr, such a step “is normal”. 

“When there’s a technical problem, the whole area could be left without power for a day or two before they fix it,” he said.

Jabr recalled how immediately after the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled longtime dictator Saddam Hussein, “houses were plunged into darkness” after fighting destroyed infrastructure.

“There was very little electricity, only two or three hours” a day, he said. “People had their own generators. They would buy fuel and it would last a day or two.”

In Iraq’s long summer months, when temperatures can peak around 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) and air-conditioner use surges, overloaded generator providers hike up prices.

Some regions were deprived of power altogether in the summer of 2021, triggering sporadic street protests by frustrated residents.

– Europe ‘destabilised’ –

Despite its oil wealth, the country relies heavily on energy supply from neighbouring Iran. 

With its mighty Tigris and Euphrates rivers, Iraq has some hydro-electric power but no nuclear plants, and is just beginning to explore renewable energy options such as solar panels.

In a bid to overcome the common blackouts, Baghdad has nonetheless moved to increase domestic power production. 

It now generates more than 24,000 megawatts per day, said electricity ministry spokesman Ahmed Moussa.

To secure stable nationwide power supply, however, 32,000 megawatts would be needed daily, he said.

For now, the national grid provides most regions with 14-20 hours of electricity a day in summer, Moussa added.

In one Sadr City avenue, private generators line the street, each feeding electricity to some 300 homes and a similar number of shops.

Ali al-Aaraji, who owns a private college for around 300 students, decried “astronomical” generator costs, which he estimated at $600 a month.

“Electricity is a constant problem for Iraqis,” said Aaraji, 58, pinning the blame on “the American occupation” of years past.

“Iraqis have managed to put up with the situation for three decades,” he added, questioning how Europe would cope with its looming power problem.

“Energy is the source of economic prosperity,” Aaraji said. 

“Europe is now destabilised. It’s going to impact their economy, industry and commerce. They’ll go backwards.”

Asian investors joined their Wall Street and European counterparts in an equity buying spree Wednesday as more data pointing to weakness in the US economy further fanned hopes the Federal Reserve could temper its rate hike campaign.

The much-needed dose of optimism has also put pressure on the dollar, pushing it down against most of its peers and adding to the upward march in oil prices fuelled by expectations OPEC will announce a massive output cut later in the day.

The mood on trading floors was lightened Monday by data showing US factory activity slowed more than forecast in September to a two-year low, suggesting the Fed’s rate hike campaign against decades-high inflation could be kicking in.

That was followed Tuesday by news that US job openings had also dropped by almost 10 percent in August, its fastest fall since April 2020.

“Rate hikes are really beginning to take a bite out of the US employment numbers,” said Matt Simpson, of City Index.

He added that the figures put more emphasis on jobs reports out later in the week, with weak readings likely to provide more support to stocks as investors bet the Fed will temper its tightening campaign.

However, officials at the central bank continue to flag their determination to crush inflation, even if that means sparking a recession.

“For the market to continue higher, the jobs data will have to be in-line with, or short of expectations,” said Lindsey Bell, of Ally Financial.

The market is currently anticipating a “Goldilocks” labour market report that’s “not too hot and not too cold”.

All three main indexes on Wall Street rallied Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up more than three percent, while European markets also thundered higher.

And Asia continued the run, with Hong Kong rocketing more than five percent as investors there returned from a one-day break, while there were also healthy performances in Tokyo, Singapore, Sydney, Taipei, Jakarta and Manila.

The gains were also helped by a smaller-than-expected rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

That came after the Bank of England last week pledged to pump billions of dollars into supporting financial markets after they were hammered by the UK government’s big-borrowing mini-budget.

The BoE pivot “seems to have convinced investors that the Fed now must give more weight to financial stability, which means that the current monetary tightening cycle might end sooner rather than later”, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said.

Focus is now on the meeting later Wednesday of OPEC and other major producers, who are reportedly considering a two million barrels cut in output — double what had earlier been flagged — after prices plunged to their January lows owing to recession concerns.

Both main contracts have bounced this week on talk of the reductions, while the weaker dollar makes the commodity cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

While WTI and Brent dipped slightly, analysts said they may have more road to run up as supplies tighten and the dollar softens.

– Key figures around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.4 percent at 27,085.97 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 5.2 percent at 17,960.10

Shanghai – Composite: Closed for a holiday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.1430 from $1.1477 on Tuesday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $0.9961 from $0.9992

Euro/pound: UP at 87.26 pence from 87.03 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 144.26 yen from 144.09 yen

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.5 percent at $86.10 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 0.4 percent at $91.44 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 2.8 percent at 30,316.32 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 2.6 percent at 7,086.46 (close)

— Bloomberg News contributed to this story —