US Business

The dazzling rise of the US dollar, which has hit one record after another, is raising fears of a currency crash of a severity not seen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis reverberated around the world. 

The Federal Reserve’s rapid, steep interest rate increases and the relative health of the US economy has caused investors to flood into the dollar, driving the greenback up and sending the British pound, Indian rupee, Egyptian pound and South Korean won and others to uncharted depths.

“The moves are definitely getting extreme,” said Brad Bechtel of Jefferies, warning that the exchange rates could fall further creating a “dire situation.”

Most other major central banks also are forcefully tightening monetary policy to bring down inflation, but so far the moves have not helped stabilized the currency market, nor has Japan’s direct intervention to support the yen last week. 

Many fear that the same will be the case with the Bank of England’s plan announced Wednesday to conduct emergency purchases of government bonds to support the pound. 

“We have our doubts that the BoE’s plan will be the silver bullet to kill all of the angst that has been pressuring the pound … considering its plan doesn’t have permanency,” said Patrick O’Hare of Briefing.com.

Others, especially emerging market countries, are even worse off. The Pakistani rupee has lost 29 percent of its value against the US dollar in the past year, and the Egyptian pound has weakened by 20 percent.

Those countries, and others like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh which “benefitted from cheap and plentiful liquidity,” when interest rates were low during the pandemic, “are all suffering from tighter global liquidity,” said Win Thin, head of currency strategy at BBH Investor Services. 

“Those countries with the weakest fundamentals are likely to be tested first but others may join them,” he warned.

Those countries rely on imported oil and grain which have seen prices soar, widening their trade deficits and fueling inflation, massive blows to their currencies. 

The appreciation of the US currency has exacerbated the problem, since many commodities are denominated in dollars. 

Already in a fragile position, Pakistan was hit with historic flooding in August, which prompted the government to discuss a restructuring of its debt.

“There are severe pressures on the financial system now. And it’s only a matter of time until there’s a larger crisis somewhere in the world,” warns Adam Button of ForexLive. 

– Bad memories –

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen earlier this week said she has not yet seen signs of “disorderly” financial market developments amid the interest rate hikes.

For countries like Taiwan, Thailand or South Korea, which also dependent on energy imports, China’s zero-Covid policy has caused their exports to this key trading partner to plummet. 

Larger economies like China and Japan have contributed in recent weeks to the turbulence on the foreign exchange market. The Japanese yen plunged its lowest level in 24 years, while the Chinese yuan hit its weakest in 14 years.

Fear of destabilization brings back memories of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which was triggered by the devaluation of the Thai baht. 

Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia followed, which panicked foreign investors and led to massive outflows of capital, pushing several countries into a severe recession and South Korea to the brink of default. 

At the time, the collapse of the baht was in part linked to its fixed parity with the dollar, which forced the Thai government to support its currency, depleting its foreign exchange reserves, which was unsustainable in the face of market forces.

Argentina eventually was forced to abandon its peg to the dollar and defaulted in late 2001 — the largest sovereign default in history.

Erik Nielsen of Wells Fargo said that is a key difference between 2022 and 1997. 

“Now there’s not a lot of fixed exchange rates,” he said. “I’m frankly more worried about developed markets right now.”

Lebanon, one of the few to still peg its currency to the greenback, on Thursday announced a drastic devaluation, taking the country’s pound to 15,000 to the dollar from the previous fixed value of 1,507. 

In the United States, by contrast, where inflation has soared to a 40-year high “the Fed sees strong dollar as a blessing,” said Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX, noting that it helps “insulate the economy from more significant price pressures.”‘

A strong currency means the country pays less for its imported products. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday annexed four territories in Ukraine controlled by his army at a grand ceremony in the Kremlin and urged Kyiv to lay down its arms and negotiate an end to seven months of fighting.

The lavish ceremony at the Kremlin, a turning point in recent post-Soviet history, came hours after shelling killed 25 people in Ukraine’s southern region of Zaporizhzhia, one of the worst attacks against civilians in months.

Putin was defiant during a address to Russia’s most senior political elite, telling the West the land grab was irreversible and calling on Ukraine’s emboldened army to give up and negotiate a surrender.

“I want to say this to the Kyiv regime and its masters in the West: People living in Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are becoming our citizens forever,” Putin said.

“We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately stop fighting and stop all hostilities… and return to the negotiating table,” the Russian leader added.

The packed hall erupted to chants of “Russia! Russia” after the four leaders inked the deal, and Putin — rarely seen making physical contact since the pandemic — joined hands with his proxy leaders and was shown shouting along in unison on state TV.

Leading up to the ceremony Putin warned he could use nuclear weapons to retain control of the territories as Kyiv vowed the move would make no difference to its aims of kicking out Russian troops. 

Ukraine’s closest backer, Washington, said it would “never” recognise Russia’s authority in the regions.

– ‘Bloodthirsty scum’ –

But early on Friday, an attack in Zaporizhzhia in the south, killed at least 25 people as civilians were preparing to leave to pick up relatives, Ukrainian officials said.

Bodies of people wearing civilian clothes were strewn across the ground after the attack and windows of cars blown out, an AFP photographer said.

One man, 56-year-old Viktor, said his life was saved because he went to get a coffee.

“The waitress gave it to me. And there was a bang. She got scared and left the cafe. A few minutes later, there was another explosion. Now she is on the floor,” he said.

“I managed to hide. She did not.”

“Only complete terrorists could do this,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “Bloodthirsty scum! You will definitely answer,” he added. 

But pro-Kremlin regional chief Vladimir Rogov accused Ukrainian troops of carrying out a “terrorist act”.

In central Moscow, at least 10,000 people were convening for state-organised annexation celebrations, with huge banners emblazoned: “Donetsk. Lugansk. Zaporizhzhia. Kherson. Russia!”

– ‘Nobody believes it’ –

“I’m happy if they want to join Russia,” Natalya Bodner, a 37-year-old lawyer told AFP. “They have more hope than we do”.

“It should have been done a long time ago,” a Russian serviceman Ildar Babaev from the southern region of Dagestan said.

“This is the right decision”.

The four territories create a crucial land corridor between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Moscow in 2014.

But the Kremlin said Friday it “needed to clarify” the exact borders of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — neither fully controlled by Moscow’s forces — that it intends to annex.

Together, all five regions including Crimea, make up around 20 percent of Ukraine, whose forces in recent weeks have been clawing back wins as part of a counter-offensive.

In Sloviansk, a city in Donetsk, a military medic who goes by the name of Coconut said the annexations were nonsense.

“If my neighbour comes to my house and announces that it’s his, nobody believes it actually belongs to him,” he told AFP.

In Kherson, Russian officials announced that Ukrainian strikes with US-supplied precision artillery systems had killed a senior security chief of the Russian-controlled region.

– Security Council vote –

A “pinpoint” strike by Himars hit his house, Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Russian proxy administration said.

It was the latest of several targeted attacks on Russian-appointed officials in the region.

Ukrainian forces are also on the doorstep of Lyman in Donetsk, which Moscow’s forces pummelled for weeks to capture this summer. 

“Lyman is partially surrounded,” said Denis Pushilin, the pro-Moscow leader in the breakaway region of Donetsk, on social media. Two nearby villages were “not fully under our control,” he added.

On Thursday, President Joe Biden said the United States would “never, never, never” recognise Russian sovereignty over the territories set for annexation.

The four regions’ Kremlin-installed leaders formally requested annexation after claiming residents backed the move in hastily organised referendums that were dismissed by Kyiv and the West as fraudulent.

Ukraine has said the West’s only appropriate response is to hit Russia with more sanctions and to supply Ukrainian forces with more weapons to keep reclaiming territory.

The UN Security Council will vote Friday on a resolution condemning the referendums, according to France, the council’s current president, but it has no chance of passing due to Moscow’s veto power.

Zelensky is calling an “urgent” meeting of his national security council for Friday, his spokesman said.

burs/jm

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will head next week to Colombia and Chile to forge ties with new left-leaning leaders elected in the historic US allies, the State Department announced Friday.

The top US diplomat flies Monday to Colombia where he will see President Gustavo Petro, who took office in September as the first leftist to head the country long vital to US strategy in South America.

Blinken will then head Wednesday to Chile and see President Gabriel Boric, a 36-year-old left-wing former student leader who took office on a campaign to sweep away the legacy of US-backed dictator Augusto Pinochet.

The secretary will later travel to Peru for a meeting of the Organization of American States and separately meet with President Pedro Castillo and other top officials.

The State Department said that Blinken throughout the trip will emphasize core themes for President Joe Biden’s administration — democracy and the fight against climate change.

In Colombia, Blinken will discuss “supporting strong democratic governments and respect for human rights throughout the Western Hemisphere,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

He will also speak of “implementing a holistic approach to counter narcotics trafficking and address its impacts on health, security and the environment,” he said.

Petro has vowed to bring lasting peace to Colombia after six decades of sporadic violence in part by tamping down the war on drugs, which has long been backed by the United States.

Blinken will also speak in Colombia about its protections for Venezuelan migrants, which serves as “a model for the region,” Price said.

On his last visit to Colombia in October 2021 and later at a US-led summit in Los Angeles, Blinken has encouraged regional cooperation to address migration, a key political issue in the United States for Biden.

Blinken’s trip will come a day after the first round of elections in Latin America’s most populous nation, Brazil, where far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is facing a strong challenge from leftist icon Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

US forecasters expect Hurricane Ian to unleash life-threatening conditions on the Carolina states on Friday after causing devastation in Florida, where it killed at least 12 people with the toll expected to rise.

After weakening across land, Ian regained its Category 1 status in the Atlantic Ocean, the US National Hurricane Center said, predicting up to seven feet (two meters) of storm surge as it slams into the South Carolina coast by afternoon.

The storm, one of the most powerful ever to hit the United States, left hundreds of people in need of rescue in Florida.

State Governor Ron DeSantis on Friday described the coastal Fort Myers area as “ground zero,” adding “but this was such a big storm that there are effects far inland.”

Many people evacuated, but thousands chose to shelter in place. DeSantis said Florida officials had so far contacted 20,000 people who chose to stay.

At least 12 people have been confirmed dead, according to local officials, the majority of them in Charlotte county.

DeSantis has warned that it was too early to give a death toll, and that concrete information about casualty numbers could be expected over several days. 

The NHC has issued a hurricane warning for South Carolina’s entire coast, as well as portions of Georgia and North Carolina.

– ‘Horrifying sounds’ –

Ian then is set to weaken fast and “dissipate near the North Carolina/Virginia border by Saturday night,” the NHC said.

Fort Myers, where Ian came ashore as a powerful Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday, took much of the brunt, as streets became rivers and seawater poured into houses.

Dozens of boats moored in the marina were sunk while others were tossed onto downtown streets.

DeSantis described the destruction as a “500-year flood event.”

Tom Johnson of Fort Myers had a front row seat for the chaos from his apartment on the second floor of a two-story harbourside building.

“I was scared because I’ve never been through that,” the 54-year-old told AFP. “It was just the most horrifying sounds with debris flying everywhere, doors flying off.”

His home was undamaged but one of his neighbors, Janelle Thil, was not so lucky and had to ask other residents for help after her ground floor apartment began to flood.

“They got my dogs and then I jumped out of the window and swam,” the 42-year-old said.

When Thil returned to her apartment after the storm passed, she said she opened the door and “had to wait about five minutes for all the floodwaters to come out.”

“I loved my home,” she said. “But I’m alive and that’s what matters.”

A US Coast Guard official said helicopter crews were plucking people from the rooftops of homes inundated by floodwaters.

– Millions without power –

Seventeen migrants were missing from a boat that sank during the hurricane on Wednesday, with one person found dead and nine others rescued, the Coast Guard said. Among them were four Cubans who swam to shore in the Florida Keys.

Much of Florida’s southwest coast was plunged into darkness after the storm wiped out power.

Tracking website PowerOutage.us said two million homes and businesses remained without electricity in the Sunshine State on Friday.

Two barrier islands near Fort Myers, Pine Island and Sanibel Island, popular with vacationers, were essentially cut off when the storm damaged causeways to the mainland.

Before pummeling Florida, Ian plunged all of Cuba into darkness after downing the island’s power network.

Electricity was gradually returning, but many homes remain without power.

Laura Mujica joined dozens of Cuban women gathered in the capital Havana on Thursday to demand electricity be restored in the city.

“We took to the street, because we haven’t had electricity for several days and we are tired of it. 

“We women decided to take to the streets to empower ourselves and protest so that the electricity will be fixed,” said the 20-year-old.

Human-induced climate change is resulting in more severe weather events across the globe, scientists say — including with Ian.

According to a rapid and preliminary analysis, human-caused climate change increased the extreme rain that Ian unleashed by over 10 percent, US scientists said.

A closely-watched measure of US inflation showed the annual pace of price increases slowed slightly in August as energy costs fell and increases in food costs eased, according to government data released Friday.

But while the data moved in the right direction, it may not provide much comfort to President Joe Biden or the Federal Reserve since inflation remains at the highest level since the early 1980s.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, increased 6.2 percent from August 2021, down slightly from the pace in July and from the 7.0 percent peak in June, the Commerce Department reported.

Inflation picked up speed last year and has accelerated this year as global supply chain snarls and worker shortages pushed prices higher — factors worsened by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which sent food and energy prices soaring worldwide.

Energy prices increased 24.7 percent over the past year while food prices are up 12.4 percent, the report showed. 

The Fed focuses on the PCE price index as it reflects consumers’ actual spending, including shifts to lower cost items, unlike the more well-known consumer price index (CPI), which also slowed in August from the blistering 9.1 percent rate in June — the highest in 40 years.

The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively this year to try to cool demand and tamp down inflation pressures, and officials have said more increases are coming before the year is out.

However, the report may not provide much comfort to central bankers as it showed widespread increases in goods and services prices, beyond the volatile food and energy components.

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index for August increased 4.9 percent from one year ago, accelerating faster than in July.

“The big and unwelcome surprise here is the overshoot in the core PCE,” said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics. 

While “it’s not as bad as it looks … appearances count, and this does not look good,” he said, predicting a fourth straight three-quarter point Fed interest rate hike in November.

Compared to the prior month, the index rose 0.3 percent, rebounding after a slight dip in July, while the core PCE jumped 0.6 percent, the report said.

The data also showed household spending increased 0.4 percent in the month, after falling in July, although economists say the trend is slowing.