World

Thailand announced Friday it would drop rules requiring people to wear masks outdoors and no longer require foreign visitors to register before travel, as Covid-19 cases fall and the kingdom seeks to lure tourists back.

Facemasks have been compulsory in public in Thailand, including outdoors, since mid-2021 when the Delta variant was running rampant.

But as the pandemic has subsided, the tourism-dependent kingdom has gradually relaxed covid restrictions in a bid to boost visitor numbers.

Thailand’s relaxation on facemasks comes after similar moves by regional peers including Cambodia and Singapore.

Taweesin Visanuyothin, spokesman for the Thai Covid taskforce, said wearing masks outside would become voluntary, but was still recommended in crowded areas, entertainment venues and on public transport.

He said the health ministry would announce further details of the mask relaxation, including when it would come into force.

On July 1 the government will also end the “Thailand Pass” system, under which foreign tourists had to register and show proof of vaccination and health insurance before they could fly to the kingdom.

Visitors will have to carry vaccine certificates or take Covid tests on arrival. 

The move is seen as an attempt to bolster the sputtering economy, which has seen growth hammered by the pandemic and living costs rising. 

There were more than 1.6 million foreign tourist arrivals during the first six months of 2022, with foreign tourist receipts logged at 99.7 billion baht, according to government data.

This compares with around 40 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand in 2019, the last year before the pandemic.

Daily Covid-19 cases have hovered below 3,500 in recent weeks, with the number of deaths registering below 50 a day for a month.

More than three quarters of the population has been jabbed with two vaccine doses, with more than 40 percent also getting a booster dose.

On Taiwan’s tiny Penghu islands, the missile bases that sit next to white-sand beaches and bustling fish markets are a visceral reminder of the constant threat of attack from China.

Despite the huge military discrepancy between the two sides, many analysts believe Taiwan’s location, inhospitable terrain and US support mean China would find a full-scale invasion extremely hard — and possibly too costly to countenance. 

Communist China and Taiwan split at the end of a civil war in 1949 with the losing Kuomintang forces retreating to the island. But Beijing insists now-democratically run Taiwan is part of its territory, and that it will one day re-take it, by force if necessary. 

Recent record Chinese fighter jet incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone and increasingly aggressive rhetoric under President Xi Jinping have raised fears China might contemplate acting on that pledge sooner rather than later. 

The Chinese defence ministry last week said it would “not hesitate to start a war” to stop Taiwan becoming independent.

One US admiral has said an attack could come by 2027, the centenary of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

“If we were to go head to head militarily, we don’t stand a single chance,” retired admiral Lee Hsi-min, who was head of Taiwan’s armed forces until 2019, told AFP bluntly.

But Russia’s failure to quickly overrun Ukraine stands as a cautionary tale to Beijing, while simultaneously providing Taipei with both tactical blueprints and inspiration on how to hold off a much larger enemy.

“Our soldiers here are all Taiwanese and will be fighting to defend their homeland,” said Chen Ing-jin, a Penghu historian and architect. “That makes a difference. Just look at Ukraine.”

– ‘A defender’s dream’ – 

Taiwan’s biggest advantage is its geography.

Amphibious assaults are exceedingly difficult and if China was to invade Taiwan — and crucially hold it — Beijing would need to move hundreds of thousands of troops as well as equipment across the Taiwan Strait.

Even at its narrowest point the strait is 130 kilometres (80 miles) and weather conditions are notoriously unforgiving with two monsoon seasons. 

That leaves just two brief “windows of attack” — May to July and October — for such a large-scale operation, according to a US Naval War College report.

In addition, studded into the waters are outlying islands like the Penghu chain — bristling with radar and missiles pointing straight out into the strait.  

With the likely early warning, and the weaponry Taipei has at its disposal, the PLA would probably incur high losses even in that first stage of transit, said James Char, an Associate Research Fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

And while the small, flat outlying islands might in the end prove easy for Beijing to subdue, on Taiwan’s main island, the opposite applies.

The coastal terrain there “is a defender’s dream come true”, according to Ian Easton, author of “The Chinese Invasion Threat”.

He and his colleagues estimate that Taiwan only has 14 small beaches suitable for landing, and even they are bordered by mountains, cliffs or dense urban infrastructure. 

“Landing on Taiwan is only part of the problem,” Bonny Lin, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told AFP. 

Progress through Taiwan’s wetlands, mountains and densely populated urban areas will require a huge range of different combat skills and weapons.

“How is it going to sustain those forces once they’re in position and advancing — how is it going to do the logistics?” Lin asked.

– Weapons –

China has spent hundreds of billions of dollars upgrading its military capabilities over the past decade, and its statistical dominance over Taiwan is enormous. 

The PLA has over one million ground force personnel to Taiwan’s 88,000, 6,300 tanks compared with 800, and 1,600 fighter jets to 400, according to the US Department of Defence.  

Washington also estimates Beijing has the world’s largest Navy by ship number. A recent US Naval War College paper described those ships as “increasingly sophisticated, capable vessels”.

But many experts, including both Char and Lin, question whether they are yet capable enough.

Atlantic Council senior advisor Harlan Ullman put it more forcefully in a February paper: “China simply lacks the military capability and capacity to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan for the foreseeable future”.  

In the meantime, Taiwan has plans to counter China’s might in numbers, with retired admiral Lee highlighting asymmetric warfare — an emphasis on mobility and precision attacks — an approach US officials are reportedly encouraging. 

Lee pointed to the success of the Ukrainian mobile missile launcher that sank Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva.

Taiwan has built up stockpiles of mobile missile batteries and shoulder-launched weapons but he said they needed lots more. 

– US support –

The factor that preoccupies Beijing most is who else might get involved in the conflict, Chinese military expert Song Zhongping told AFP. 

“The difficulty of liberating Taiwan lies in the potential intervention of the United States. It’s the biggest obstacle for the PLA to clear,” he said. 

The United States officially maintains a “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene militarily in the event of an invasion. But it supplies Taiwan with military hardware and President Joe Biden has said multiple times that Washington would intervene. 

The “extent, depth and breadth” of US and other allies’ involvement would greatly determine how any conflict would play out, said Song. 

Some wargame scenarios see the PLA taking out US bases in the Pacific to kneecap its ability to respond. Washington would be heavily reliant on aircraft carriers operating far from home. 

To counter that threat China has prioritised the development of hypersonic “carrier killer” missiles and militarised multiple atolls in the disputed South China Sea.

But an attack on US forces could provoke a more determined backlash and draw American allies into a global conflict.

Even without a military intervention, Char said the threat of economic sanctions like those placed on Russia would give the Chinese leadership pause for thought.

– Political willpower –

The question of whether China would be prepared to cause mass casualties with an invasion, while risking its domestic and international image, is a fundamental one.

“You need to let China know that it will suffer tremendous losses, and even then it may still not be able to occupy Taiwan,” said Lee. 

“So that China will think that the best way to resolve the Taiwan problem is by peaceful means.”

There are a range of other options short of all-out invasion Beijing could use to bring Taipei to its knees — including a Taiwan Strait blockade, annexation of the outlying islands, or incapacitation of military and cyber systems.

“China might come up with other formulations or creative diplomatic strategic solutions to declare unification with Taiwan without actually having achieved that,” CSIS’ Lin said.  

Chinese analyst Song said Beijing has made its invasion trigger clear. 

“The timing depends on the behaviour of the Taiwanese separatists and if they insist on advocating for Taiwan’s independence,” he said.

The island’s 23 million people have increasingly embraced a distinct Taiwanese identity and President Tsai Ing-wen, who views the island as a sovereign state, has won two elections. 

The next presidential elections are due in 2024 and Ukraine’s fate has only further hardened attitudes towards China.

In a survey conducted in May, 61.4 percent of respondents said they were willing to take up arms in the event of an invasion. 

The decision ultimately rests with Xi Jinping, the most authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, who has been central to the rising fears that China will invade Taiwan.

Xi is on the cusp of securing an unprecedented third term this year. And since he came to power, Char said, “there’s been a total shift from the previous mantra of peace and development” in China’s behaviour in the region.

Instead, he added, Xi has pushed the mantra “accomplish something magnificent and great”.

In a landmark 2019 speech on Taiwan, Xi said unification was “an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese people”.

The European Commission will meet Friday to give its fast-tracked opinion on Ukraine’s bid for EU candidacy, a step closer to membership for the country a day after the bloc’s most powerful leaders visited Kyiv as it battles Russia’s invasion.

Never before has an opinion been given so quickly on EU candidacy, which must be approved by all 27 member states.

The opinion will serve as a basis for discussion at next week’s EU summit, where leaders are expected to approve Ukraine’s candidate status with strict conditions, though membership may take years or even decades.

France, Germany, Italy and Romania are in favour of Ukraine receiving “immediate” candidate status, French President Emmanuel Macron said in Kyiv Thursday. 

Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian premier Mario Draghi arrived in Ukraine by train and were joined by Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis before meeting Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been lobbying allies for support.

“The most important message of our visit is that Italy wants Ukraine in the EU,” Draghi said at a joint press conference.

Scholz said Ukraine “belongs in the European family” and that Berlin would continue to send Kyiv weapons “for as long as it is needed”.

After meeting the visiting leaders, Zelensky said he explained “essential needs in the field of defence”.

“We are expecting new deliveries, above all heavy weapons, modern artillery, anti-aircraft defence systems,” he said, even as Macron said France would send six Caesar self-propelled howitzers to add to the 12 already deployed on Ukraine’s eastern front.

Zelensky promised Ukraine was ready to put in the work to become an EU member.

– ‘Dreadful mistake’ –

Think tank director Sebastien Maillard said he expects a positive opinion on Ukraine’s EU status, but with conditions and a deadline.

“This is a very delicate exercise for the Commission because it cannot be less demanding for Ukraine than for other countries for which it has given a favourable opinion in the past. Its credibility requires the maintenance of high standards,” the head of the Jacques Delors Institute said.

Russia has already “strategically lost” its war with Ukraine, suffering heavy losses and strengthening NATO, the UK’s chief of defence staff said in an interview published Friday.

“This is a dreadful mistake by Russia. Russia will never take control of Ukraine,” said Tony Radakin, the country’s highest-ranking military officer.

The admiral said Russian President Vladimir Putin had sacrificed a quarter of his country’s army power for “tiny” gains and was running out of troops and high-tech missiles.

“Russia is failing.”

– Nuns survive under shelling –

In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces edged closer to control of the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk after weeks of battle.

Regional governor Sergiy Gaiday said Friday that airstrikes killed six in the area, including a mother and son, and that the number of shellings by the Russian army was growing daily.

Under near-constant bombardment by Russian forces, black-clad Sister Anastasia and a group of Orthodox nuns and pilgrims live in one of the villages closest to Ukraine’s frontline.

Entrance to the religious community, in the village of Adamivka near the city of Sloviansk, is only possible with permission from the Ukrainian military.

Their complex hasn’t had electricity for months, and its perimeter walls are pockmarked with shrapnel holes.

AFP journalists heard regular incoming fire from a few kilometres away, and soldiers said a cluster bomb had just fallen nearby.

Sloviansk was taken by Russia-backed separatists in 2014 but recaptured by Kyiv’s forces after a months-long siege.

“This is our home, we have nowhere else to go,” said Sister Anastasia.

– Grain standoff –

US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack called on Russia Thursday to rapidly open Ukraine’s ports to permit the export of millions of tonnes of stockpiled grain.

“We shouldn’t be using food as a weapon,” Vilsack told reporters at the United Nations.

With global grain prices soaring and importers in the Middle East and Africa facing supply shortfalls, Moscow has demanded that economic sanctions on it be lifted in exchange for allowing the exports.

While Russia — the largest wheat exporter in the world — appears to be calling the shots in the grain standoff, experts say that its own agricultural sector is also bracing for tough times.

Yevgeny Shifanov, co-owner of an organic farm, says his business has felt the sting of Western sanctions and he is no longer able to sell his grain to Europe. 

But the 42-year-old puts on a brave face, saying he is pivoting to ex-Soviet countries such as Belarus as well as domestic clients.

“We are more interested in our internal market, our economy,” he told AFP.

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The World Trade Organization concluded a landmark bundle of deals Friday covering fishing subsidies, food insecurity and Covid-19 vaccines following hectic round-the-clock talks.

WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said trade ministers had struck an “unprecedented package of deliverables” which would make a difference to people’s lives across the planet.

The talks at the global trade body’s Geneva headquarters began Sunday and were due to wrap up on Wednesday.

But instead the WTO’s 164 members went through two straight nights before getting the package over the line at around 5:00 am (0300 GMT) Friday.

The WTO’s 12th ministerial conference (MC12) reeled in a deal to halt harmful fisheries subsidies after more than two decades of negotiations, and also reached agreements on e-commerce, responding to pandemics and reforming the organisation itself.

“Not in a long while has the WTO seen such a significant number of multilateral outcomes,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

“The package of agreements you have reached will make a difference to the lives of people around the world. The outcomes demonstrate that the WTO is in fact capable of responding to the emergencies of our time.”

With ministers struggling to conclude agreements on each separate issue, countries began making trade-offs across the topics that ultimately kept several measures alive.

“There were many moments when I feared we would come out of MC12 with nothing at all,” Okonjo-Iweala later admitted.

But after the conference went nearly 36 hours into overtime, EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis tweeted “DEAL!”

The “ministerial succeeded in delivering important outcomes, despite unprecedented challenges.”

– Big fish deal netted –

The fisheries deal — the flagship issue thrashed out at the conference — was the last one to get over the line.

Delegations were hammering out the final points into the early hours of Friday.

Negotiations towards banning subsidies that encourage overfishing and threaten the sustainability of the planet’s fish stocks had been going on at the WTO since 2001.

The text was watered down compared to what had originally been envisaged, but Okonjo-Iweala insisted it was better to get an agreement rather than keep negotiating for years to come.

The last ministerial conference in Buenos Aires in December 2017 was seen as a flop after failing to strike any heavyweight deals.

Okonjo-Iweala, who took over in March 2021, hinged her leadership on breathing new life into the sclerotic organisation.

She wanted to prove that the organisation could still make itself relevant in tackling the big global challenges.

The former foreign and finance minister of Nigeria positioned herself as someone who can bang heads together and get business done.

“I prefer to talk less and do more,” she said Friday.

As for why the discussions went on so long, some delegations accused India of being intransigent on every topic under discussion at the WTO — where decisions can only pass with the agreement of every member.

But Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal insisted: “India is not a roadblock on anything… People are realising that we were the ones who actually helped create the sole consensus.”

– Patents waiver –

The second major issue on the table was the plan for a Covid-19 vaccine patents waiver.

Some countries that host major pharmaceutical companies, like Britain and Switzerland, found the initial draft wording worrisome.

But once Britain got on board after securing clarifications, it was left to the United States and China, who agreed language that captured Beijing’s voluntary output.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai hailed the deal, saying it would “get more safe and effective vaccines to those who need it most”.

The pharmaceutical industry organisation IFPMA however voiced “deep disappointment” at the deal, warning that “dismantling” patent protections would strangle innovation. 

Public interest groups meanwhile slammed the deal for not going far enough, with the medical charity Doctors Without Borders calling it a “devastating global failure” that would not help people access medical tools to fight the pandemic.

WTO members also agreed to help ease supply shortages that some countries faced during the pandemic.

With Russia’s war in Ukraine fuelling a global food security crisis, ministers agreed on the importance of not imposing export restrictions, while food purchases by the UN’s World Food Programme will be shielded from export bans.

Ministers also agreed to extend the moratorium on imposing customs duties on e-commerce transactions, seen by some countries as fundamental to protecting the digital economy.

Yevgeny Shifanov, co-owner of an organic farm, says his business has felt the sting of Western sanctions and he is no longer able to sell his grain to Europe. 

But the 42-year-old puts on a brave face, saying he is pivoting to ex-Soviet countries such as Belarus as well as domestic clients.

“We are more interested in our internal market, our economy,” the co-owner of Chyorny Khleb (“Black Bread”) told AFP.

Shifanov’s business — located in the village of Khatmanovo, some 150 kilometres (90 miles) south of Moscow on the banks of the Oka River — is one of numerous small farms that have mushroomed in Russia over the past decade. 

Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine has devastated crops and farming in the pro-Western nation and disrupted crucial deliveries from Ukraine fuelling concern about hunger and food prices worldwide.

The military campaign also put a major focus on Russia’s own agriculture sector.

The country is the largest wheat exporter in the world and has been accused by the West of using grain as a geopolitical tool. 

While Russia appears to be calling the shots in the current grain standoff with the West, experts say that its own agricultural sector is also bracing for tough times.

At Chyorny Khleb, which cultivates cereals on just over 1,000 hectares of land, green wheat stalks are knee-high. The farmers are enjoying a relative lull before harvesting starts in late July.

“In March or April, we begin to prepare the land, then we plant. Soon we will reap the results of our work,” said Alexei Yershov, a 28-year-old tractor driver before climbing into his red-and-black tractor and setting off into a buckwheat field.

– New reality –

The outlook for the season is good, with the agriculture ministry forecasting a harvest of 130 million tonnes including a record 87 million tonnes of wheat.

But the farmers admit they have struggled since the onset of unprecedented Western sanctions. 

“We have faced logistical problems,” said Shifanov, adding that he has partners in Europe and Israel but the trucks carrying his farm’s produce abroad were blocked at the border.

“We have buyers abroad, but we can’t do anything, we can’t deliver there, now we can only make do with our domestic market,” he said.

He added that he was also searching for partners in Belarus, Armenia and Kazakhstan.

The farm is gradually adjusting to the new reality.

Like many other Russian businesses, the farm went on a “panic buying” spree in the first few weeks of the crisis, purchasing a year’s worth of packaging supplies that are now gathering dust.

One of Shifanov’s partners is now running out of glue needed to make labels. 

“It was imported from Europe,” said Shifanov, standing in a shed between mounds of wheat.

“They are trying to solve the problem via China but the logistics remain complicated,” he added.

In a nearby building, Roman Tikhonov, 40, works on an Austrian-made wooden milling machine. 

The miller said that the farm is learning to operate without foreign-made spare parts.

“Recently, something broke, we found the material and fixed it,” he said. 

“Before the spare parts arrived from Austria, we waited a long time, now we make them ourselves, it’s faster.”

The Ukrainian-made milling machine next-door has been receiving its spare parts via Belarus since the outbreak of hostilities between Ukrainian forces and Moscow-backed separatists in 2014.

Shifanov nevertheless says he is relieved that his tractors were mainly made in Russia or Belarus.

– Trading at a discount –

The grain market is also adjusting to the new conditions. 

Before Russia’s military campaign, the price of wheat was already high at around $300 per tonne but now it is more than $400. 

Andrey Sizov, the head of Sovecon, a Russian agriculture consultancy, said that Russia is now selling its grain — just like its oil — at a discount.

“The war discount for Russian grain is $20 per tonne,” he told AFP. 

“Russian grain has become cheaper than, for example French grain, because you have to reflect and price in those additional costs like freight, insurance, problems with payments.”

Sizov also pointed out that not only do farmers face higher production costs due to inflation, authorities in 2021 introduced strict export taxes that take about “30 percent of farmers revenue”.

“The irony is current record high wheat prices were driven mainly by the Russian war but at the same time Russian farmers are not benefiting from them.”