World

Stocks drop and dollar rises as inflation, rate fears return

Equities tumbled Thursday, tracking a sell-off on Wall Street, while the dollar jumped further as surging inflation, interest rate hikes and recession fears returned to the fore.

Traders in Europe were keeping tabs on Westminster a day after Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government was plunged into a fresh crisis and facing collapse following the resignation of home secretary Suella Braverman.

That came days after the sacking of finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and has left Truss’s premiership on a knife-edge.

The positive start to the week, helped by forecast-beating earnings and a major UK government policy U-turn, gave way to the downbeat mood that has characterised markets all year as traders contemplated an extended period of uncertainty.

News that UK inflation bounced back above 10 percent in September highlighted the struggle central banks have in bringing prices down, despite lifting borrowing costs in recent months.

That followed a similarly glum reading out of New Zealand earlier in the week and helped push up government bond yields around the world, indicating higher interest rates.

The unease on trading floors, and concerns that prices are showing no sign of easing, also sent investors back into the safety of the dollar, adding more inflationary pressure outside the United States and dragging on stock markets.

“As is often the case, rising US yields and the strong US dollar are the sledgehammers pounding global equities lower,” said SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes. 

After Wall Street’s drop, markets across Asia were deep in the red, with selling also fuelled by concerns about the Chinese economy as Covid cases spike in the country and leaders stick to lockdown strategies.

A decision to delay the release of third-quarter growth data this week added to the unease among investors.

Hong Kong led losses, shedding almost three percent at one point, while Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei, Shanghai, Mumbai and Manila were also in the red.

There was a brief rally in the afternoon sparked by a report that China was considering easing quarantine rules for people coming into the country, though traders were unable to maintain momentum.

London’s FTSE 100 fell in the morning. Frankfurt was also down but Paris edged up.

– Westminster chaos –

The losses wiped out most of the gains enjoyed at the start of the week, even as positive earnings reports came in from Netflix and top Wall Street banks, with Ellen Hazen of F.L.Putnam Investment Management warning worse could be yet to come.

“As we look at third-quarter results, we think there are going to be more misses than the market is currently expecting,” she told Bloomberg Radio.

“If you look at GDP for this year, it keeps getting revised downward and it’s really hard for companies to keep growing their earnings in the face of that.”

On forex markets the dollar briefly broke to as high as 150.08 yen for the first time since 1990, putting pressure on Japanese authorities who said saying they were keeping a close watch on the market and were ready to step in to support the beleaguered currency.

But analysts warned the yen would continue to slide as long as the Bank of Japan refuses to tighten monetary policy at the same time as the Federal Reserve presses on with its sharp rate hikes.

The pound was also back under pressure, having bounced Monday after Britain’s new finance minister Jeremy Hunt reversed virtually all of Truss’s debt-fuelled, tax-cutting mini-budget that hammered financial markets.

Sterling was hovering just above $1.12 — against more than $1.14 Tuesday — owing to the chaos in Westminster, with many of the prime minister’s own party calling for her to stand down, while there is speculation that more members of the cabinet could walk.

Oil prices extended Wednesday’s rally that came in reaction to a drop in US petroleum stockpiles, and despite President Joe Biden’s decision to release 15 million barrels from US strategic reserves.

The crude was the last batch to be released from the 180 barrels pledged by Biden earlier this year, aimed at bringing costs down.

But Innes added: “Markets will mostly ignore further releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves — prices are elevated because of the medium- and longer-term gap between supply and demand resulting from years of oil industry swoon and the resulting low capital expenditure.

“So, the impact of additional… releases will likely have diminishing returns with (reserves) at a multi-decade low.”

– Key figures around 0810 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.9 percent at 27,006.96 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.4 percent at 16,280.22 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,035.05 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 6,914.36

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.1210 from $1.1219 on Wednesday

Dollar/yen: UP at 149.90 yen from 149.88 yen

Euro/dollar: UP at $0.9794 from $0.9778 

Euro/pound: UP at 87.18 pence from 87.10 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.5 percent at $86.86 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.2 percent at $93.52 per barrel

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.3 percent at 30,423.81 (close)

Yen sinks to 150 per dollar, lowest since 1990

The falling yen hit 150 per dollar for the first time since 1990 on Thursday, driven down by the contrast between Japanese monetary easing and aggressive US interest rate hikes.

The currency has plunged from February levels of around 115 as the Bank of Japan sticks to its longstanding ultra-loose policies, designed to encourage sustainable growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

At the same time the US Federal Reserve has sharply increased borrowing costs in an attempt to quell sky-high inflation fuelled by factors including the war in Ukraine.

The Japanese unit sank to as low as 150.08 per dollar, before easing back soon after.

Analysts say the yen will continue to slide as long as the two policies differ, with more dramatic Fed interest-rate hikes likely as US prices increase faster than expected.

And speculation is growing that Japan could move to prop up its currency again after spending 2.8 trillion yen in September (then around $20 billion) on an intervention that involves selling dollars and buying yen.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki called volatile fluctuations in forex markets “absolutely intolerable” on Thursday, reiterating verbal warnings that authorities will take an “appropriate response” to promote stability.

Earlier this week, Suzuki declined to confirm whether any unannounced “stealth” interventions had recently taken place.

“It’s probably fair to say that… the Japanese government is engaged in a game of chicken with the market” on the yen, Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, told AFP.

“There isn’t a limit,” she said, explaining that in the short term, “interest rate differentials suggest there is a strong drag on the dollar-yen to go higher.”

A weaker yen inflates profits for Japanese exporters, but can also weigh on the country’s trade balance.

Japan is heavily reliant on imported energy and also buys in other goods including much of its food.

September’s intervention “managed to stabilise the dollar-yen rate for a while, because traders are frightened of intervention”, which can cause them to lose money, said Foley.

But the effect of such interventions will be limited if the gap between Japanese and US monetary policy remains, she added.

“It’s very unlikely that anything is going to change from policy at least until the spring,” when key wage negotiations take place in Japan, she said.

Japan scrapped its Covid-19 border restrictions and reopened to tourists this month, and many visitors will find shopping, eating out and domestic travel a bargain thanks to the weak yen and years of stubbornly low inflation.

Prices are now rising in Japan, although at a slower pace than in other major economies.

In August, inflation came in at 2.8 percent, the highest level since 2014, in part because of soaring energy prices linked to the Ukraine war.

That is above the Bank of Japan’s target for sustained two percent inflation, but it views the price increases as temporary and so has kept its easy-money policies in place.

Yen sinks to 150 per dollar, lowest since 1990

The falling yen hit 150 per dollar for the first time since 1990 on Thursday, driven down by the contrast between Japanese monetary easing and aggressive US interest rate hikes.

The currency has plunged from February levels of around 115 as the Bank of Japan sticks to its longstanding ultra-loose policies, designed to encourage sustainable growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

At the same time the US Federal Reserve has sharply increased borrowing costs in an attempt to quell sky-high inflation fuelled by factors including the war in Ukraine.

The Japanese unit sank to as low as 150.08 per dollar, before easing back soon after.

Analysts say the yen will continue to slide as long as the two policies differ, with more dramatic Fed interest-rate hikes likely as US prices increase faster than expected.

And speculation is growing that Japan could move to prop up its currency again after spending 2.8 trillion yen in September (then around $20 billion) on an intervention that involves selling dollars and buying yen.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki called volatile fluctuations in forex markets “absolutely intolerable” on Thursday, reiterating verbal warnings that authorities will take an “appropriate response” to promote stability.

Earlier this week, Suzuki declined to confirm whether any unannounced “stealth” interventions had recently taken place.

“It’s probably fair to say that… the Japanese government is engaged in a game of chicken with the market” on the yen, Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, told AFP.

“There isn’t a limit,” she said, explaining that in the short term, “interest rate differentials suggest there is a strong drag on the dollar-yen to go higher.”

A weaker yen inflates profits for Japanese exporters, but can also weigh on the country’s trade balance.

Japan is heavily reliant on imported energy and also buys in other goods including much of its food.

September’s intervention “managed to stabilise the dollar-yen rate for a while, because traders are frightened of intervention”, which can cause them to lose money, said Foley.

But the effect of such interventions will be limited if the gap between Japanese and US monetary policy remains, she added.

“It’s very unlikely that anything is going to change from policy at least until the spring,” when key wage negotiations take place in Japan, she said.

Japan scrapped its Covid-19 border restrictions and reopened to tourists this month, and many visitors will find shopping, eating out and domestic travel a bargain thanks to the weak yen and years of stubbornly low inflation.

Prices are now rising in Japan, although at a slower pace than in other major economies.

In August, inflation came in at 2.8 percent, the highest level since 2014, in part because of soaring energy prices linked to the Ukraine war.

That is above the Bank of Japan’s target for sustained two percent inflation, but it views the price increases as temporary and so has kept its easy-money policies in place.

Welcome no more: Rohingya face backlash in Bangladesh

Rohingya refugee Noor Kamal found a sympathetic welcome in Bangladesh when he fled the soldiers rampaging through his village — but five years later, the hostility he now faces has left him pondering a dangerous return home.

Much has changed in the time since he and 750,000 other members of the stateless Muslim minority escaped neighbouring Myanmar, the survivors of a horrific crackdown now subject to a UN genocide probe.

Back then, thousands of Bangladeshis, outraged by the anti-Muslim violence across the border, trekked from across the country to distribute food and medicine to the shell-shocked arrivals. 

But public attitudes have hardened after years of fruitless efforts to negotiate a safe return for the Rohingya, with media outlets and politicians regularly condemning refugees as drug runners and terror threats.

“There is so much hatred among local people and the press here that I worry it may trigger violence at any time,” Kamal told AFP from his home in Bangladesh’s sprawling border relief camps.

“It’s better we return home even if it means we have to face bullets. If we die, at least we will be buried in our motherland.”

Bangladesh has struggled to support the immense refugee population — while there is financial assistance from the UN refugees body and other humanitarian organisations, Dhaka still faces huge administrative challenges in hosting the camps.

Last year’s military coup in Myanmar has made the prospects of a wholesale return even more remote.

Last month, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said the Rohingya camps had become both a deep burden on her country’s economy and a threat to its political stability. 

“If the problem persists… it may affect the security and stability of the entire region,” she told the UN General Assembly in New York.

– ‘Bringing shame to Bangladesh’ –

Resentment is widespread among Bangladeshis living near the camps, who say the Rohingya have outstayed their welcome.

“They are bringing shame to Bangladesh,” Ayasur Rahman, the spokesman of a local civil society group campaigning against the Rohingya’s presence, told AFP. 

“They should be sent to Myanmar immediately,” he said, accusing refugees of “snatching our jobs (and) stealing our passports”.

Critical commentary on security issues in the camps and their burden on public resources has also become a running feature of local media reportage.

In August, on the fifth anniversary of the crackdown that sparked the Rohingya exodus from Myanmar, a popular online news portal ran an opinion article asking: “How long will Bangladesh be punished for its benevolence?”

Another local media headline likened the presence of the Rohingya to a “cancerous tumour”.

Negative media portrayals of the Rohingya have become so rampant that they caught the attention of former UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet, who toured the country in August as one of her final acts in office. 

“I am very worried about increasing anti-Rohingya rhetoric in Bangladesh, stereotyping and scapegoating Rohingya as the source of crime and other problems,” she said at the time.

– ‘It is very hurtful’ –

Refugees acknowledge that violence and criminal activity exist within the Kutupalong camp network — though it is the Rohingya themselves who are its chief victims.

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an Islamist militant group that has clashed with Myanmar’s army in the past, has sought to entrench its control over the camps — even murdering civil society leaders that could challenge its authority. 

Southern Bangladesh is also a hotspot for the regional methamphetamine trade originating in Myanmar, and Rohingya are often recruited as drug couriers for the influential local kingpins who control distribution networks. 

The trade predates the 2017 Rohingya influx, but refugees say they have been largely blamed for the spread of drugs in Bangladesh, and condemned as criminals regardless of their involvement.

“Out of a million people, there are a handful of bad apples, but that doesn’t justify calling the entire refugee community criminal,” Rohingya refugee Abdul Mannan told AFP.

“It is very hurtful how we are being portrayed.” 

This year, a stuttering economy has saddled Bangladeshis with rising food prices and lengthy nationwide blackouts that have occasionally sparked violent protests. 

Bangladesh also suffered its worst flooding in living memory during the latest monsoon, with millions of homes inundated and numerous villages cut off from the rest of the country. 

The resulting hardships have helped erode the charitable sentiment that once compelled Bangladeshis to flock to the camps and offer help to refugees.

“The compassion that was demonstrated in 2017 and subsequent years has dwindled. It has been replaced with xenophobic rhetoric,” said Ali Riaz, a professor of political science at Illinois State University who has written extensively on the Rohingya crisis.

“Fear and hatred are the key features,” he told AFP. “Unfortunately, these are not in short supply.”

US must prepare now for China invasion of Taiwan: admiral

The US military must be ready to respond to a potential invasion of Taiwan as soon as this year, a senior admiral said Wednesday, signaling heightened alarm over Beijing’s intentions towards the island.

Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, is the latest senior official in Washington to raise concerns that China’s President Xi Jinping may be much more willing than previously thought to seize Taiwan. 

His comments came as Taiwan’s top security official warned any attempt to invade the island would fail and turn China into an international pariah. 

Xi is on the cusp of securing a third five-year term at the helm of the world’s most populous nation, delivering a landmark Communist Party Congress speech on Sunday where he restated his vow to one day “reunify,” or forcefully take, Taiwan.

In a discussion with a think-tank, Gilday was asked about Xi’s speech and whether he agreed with comments by another US admiral that Beijing would be ready to take Taiwan by 2027. 

“It’s not just what President Xi says, it’s how the Chinese behave and what they do,” Gilday told the Atlantic Council. 

“And what we’ve seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they’ve made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it.”

“So when we talk about the 2027 window in my mind, that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window,” he added. 

“I can’t rule that out. I don’t mean at all to be alarmist by saying that. It’s just that we can’t wish that away.”

– ‘No chance’ –

China’s Communist Party has never controlled Taiwan but it claims the self-ruled island as its own.

Taiwan is not a treaty ally of the United States, but Congress is bound by law to sell Taipei defensive weapons and there is bipartisan support for protecting what has become a progressive democracy and vital global trade partner.

Beijing’s stance has long been that it seeks “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan but reserves the right to use force if necessary, especially if the island formally declares independence.

The rhetoric and actions towards Taiwan have become more pronounced under Xi, China’s most assertive leader in a generation, and the military has ramped up equipment purchases aimed at pulling off an invasion.

Xi has tied taking Taiwan to his vision of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and said the goal of reunification cannot continue to be passed indefinitely from generation to generation.

Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine, which China has not condemned, has also raised fears that Beijing might take similar moves against Taiwan’s 23 million people.

Military analysts have long warned that even with strength in numbers invading Taiwan is a difficult task, given its location and terrain.

Taiwan’s national security chief Chen Ming-tong echoed that sentiment and delivered his own warning to Xi. 

“I want to solemnly tell the Beijing authorities that there is no chance of winning to attack Taiwan by force,” he told reporters on Thursday in Taipei. 

“It would lead to international economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, ruining his (Xi’s) ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ and making him a sinner of the Chinese nation.”

On Monday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned that Beijing wants to seize Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” than previously considered, adding that “a very different China” had emerged under Xi. 

Blinken also warned any war over Taiwan would have an “enormous” impact on global trade. 

New Zealand farmers protest livestock 'burp and fart' tax

Farmers quit their fields and hit the streets of New Zealand’s cities Thursday in countrywide protests against plans to tax greenhouse emissions from farm animals.

Convoys of tractors, 4x4s and farmyard vehicles disrupted traffic in Wellington, Auckland and other major hubs, as protestors demanded the centre-left government ditch plans for an animal “burp and fart” tax.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern touted a “world first” levy on emissions of methane and nitrous oxide produced by the nation’s six million cows and 26 million sheep as a step to tackling climate change.

Thousands of farmers gathered Thursday brandishing signs saying the policy “stinks” and warning that the tax would make food more costly, while putting their livelihoods at risk. 

“Most farmers have had enough,” said one Wellington protestor who gave his name only as Chris. “It’s getting hard to carry on farming and this government isn’t really supporting us — it’s a tough gig at the moment.”

Animals produce methane and nitrous oxide as a byproduct of munching on grass and feed.

Methane is much less abundant than carbon dioxide and does not linger as long in the atmosphere, but is a much more potent warming agent.

Scientists believe methane is responsible for roughly 30 percent of the global rise in temperatures despite being a fraction of the greenhouse gas mix.

Ardern has argued the tax is needed to reach climate targets and could even benefit farmers if they can charge more for climate-friendly meat.

She also signalled a possible willingness to compromise. 

“We are out talking to our farmers and food producers as to the best possible design,” she told reporters in Auckland. 

– ‘Stress and heartbreak’ –

Bryan McKenzie of protest organisers Groundswell NZ said the tax was “punitive” and “an existential threat to rural communities”.

“After years of faux consultation, the government has given up on all pretence of a fair and workable agricultural emissions policy.”

While the government hopes the tax will reduce livestock emissions by 20 percent, McKenzie argues that any “reductions will be replaced by less efficient foreign farmers”. 

Urban supporters also joined the protest in some regions, with one sign in the southern city of Dunedin reading “Farming tax affects us all”.

In a joint statement, several mayors from New Zealand’s remote west coast regions said they “stand strongly in support” of the protest. 

Environmentalists argue that protesting farmers are stuck in the mud.

“This country’s rural and agricultural sector has been hard hit by floods, intense storms and droughts this year alone,” said Emily Bailey of Climate Justice Taranaki.

“That cost millions in damages and loads of stress and heartbreak for those losing homes, sheds, stock and fences… It’s only getting worse,” she said. 

“Farmers can either adapt and rapidly bring down their emissions or they, and everyone else, will suffer more.”

New Zealand farmers protest livestock 'burp and fart' tax

Farmers quit their fields and hit the streets of New Zealand’s cities Thursday in countrywide protests against plans to tax greenhouse emissions from farm animals.

Convoys of tractors, 4x4s and farmyard vehicles disrupted traffic in Wellington, Auckland and other major hubs, as protestors demanded the centre-left government ditch plans for an animal “burp and fart” tax.

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern touted a “world first” levy on emissions of methane and nitrous oxide produced by the nation’s six million cows and 26 million sheep as a step to tackling climate change.

Thousands of farmers gathered Thursday brandishing signs saying the policy “stinks” and warning that the tax would make food more costly, while putting their livelihoods at risk. 

“Most farmers have had enough,” said one Wellington protestor who gave his name only as Chris. “It’s getting hard to carry on farming and this government isn’t really supporting us — it’s a tough gig at the moment.”

Animals produce methane and nitrous oxide as a byproduct of munching on grass and feed.

Methane is much less abundant than carbon dioxide and does not linger as long in the atmosphere, but is a much more potent warming agent.

Scientists believe methane is responsible for roughly 30 percent of the global rise in temperatures despite being a fraction of the greenhouse gas mix.

Ardern has argued the tax is needed to reach climate targets and could even benefit farmers if they can charge more for climate-friendly meat.

She also signalled a possible willingness to compromise. 

“We are out talking to our farmers and food producers as to the best possible design,” she told reporters in Auckland. 

– ‘Stress and heartbreak’ –

Bryan McKenzie of protest organisers Groundswell NZ said the tax was “punitive” and “an existential threat to rural communities”.

“After years of faux consultation, the government has given up on all pretence of a fair and workable agricultural emissions policy.”

While the government hopes the tax will reduce livestock emissions by 20 percent, McKenzie argues that any “reductions will be replaced by less efficient foreign farmers”. 

Urban supporters also joined the protest in some regions, with one sign in the southern city of Dunedin reading “Farming tax affects us all”.

In a joint statement, several mayors from New Zealand’s remote west coast regions said they “stand strongly in support” of the protest. 

Environmentalists argue that protesting farmers are stuck in the mud.

“This country’s rural and agricultural sector has been hard hit by floods, intense storms and droughts this year alone,” said Emily Bailey of Climate Justice Taranaki.

“That cost millions in damages and loads of stress and heartbreak for those losing homes, sheds, stock and fences… It’s only getting worse,” she said. 

“Farmers can either adapt and rapidly bring down their emissions or they, and everyone else, will suffer more.”

Receding ice leaves Canada's polar bears at rising risk

Sprawled on rocky ground far from sea ice, a lone Canadian polar bear sits under a dazzling sun, his white fur utterly useless as camouflage. 

It’s mid-summer on the shores of Hudson Bay and life for the enormous male has been moving in slow motion, far from the prey that keeps him alive: seals.

This is a critical time for the region’s polar bears.

Every year from late June when the bay ice disappears — shrinking until it dots the blue vastness like scattered confetti — they must move onto shore to begin a period of forced fasting.

But that period is lasting longer and longer as temperatures rise — putting them in danger’s way. 

Once on solid ground, the bears “typically have very few options for food,” explains Geoff York, a biologist with Polar Bears International (PBI).

York, an American, spends several weeks each year in Churchill, a small town on the edge of the Arctic in the northern Canadian province of Manitoba. There, he follows the fortunes of the endangered animals.

This is one of the best spots from which to study life on Hudson Bay, though transportation generally requires either an all-terrain vehicle adapted to the rugged tundra, or an inflatable boat for navigating the bay’s waters. 

York invited an AFP team to join him on an expedition in early August.

Near the impressively large male bear lazing in the sun is a pile of fishbones — nowhere near enough to sustain this 11-foot (3.4-meter), 1,300-pound (590-kilo) beast.

“There could be a beluga whale carcass they might be able to find, (or a) naive seal near shore, but generally they’re just fasting,” York says.

“They lose nearly a kilogram of body weight every day that they’re on land.”

Climate warming is affecting the Arctic three times as fast as other parts of the world — even four times, according to some recent studies. So sea ice, the habitat of the polar bear, is gradually disappearing.

A report published two years ago in the journal Nature Climate Change suggested that this trend could lead to the near-extinction of these majestic animals: 1,200 of them were counted on the western shores of Hudson Bay in the 1980s. Today, the best estimate is 800.

– Summer scarcity –

Each summer, sea ice begins melting earlier and earlier, while the first hard freeze of winter comes later and later. Climate change thus threatens the polar bears’ very cycle of life.

They have fewer opportunities to build up their reserves of fat and calories before the period of summer scarcity.

The polar bear — technically known as the Ursus maritimus — is a meticulous carnivore that feeds principally on the white fat that envelops and insulates a seal’s body.

But these days, this superpredator of the Arctic sometimes has to feed on seaweed — as a mother and her baby were seen doing not far from the port of Churchill, the self-declared “Polar Bear Capital.”

If female bears go more than 117 days without adequate food, they struggle to nurse their young, said Steve Amstrup, an American who is PBI’s lead scientist. Males, he adds, can go 180 days.

As a result, births have declined, and it has become much rarer for a female to give birth to three cubs, once a common occurrence.

It is a whole ecosystem in decline, and one that 54-year-old York — with his short hair and rectangular glasses — knows by heart after spending more than 20 years roaming the Arctic, first for the ecology organization WWF and now for PBI.

During a capture in Alaska, a bear sunk its fangs into his leg. 

Another time, while entering what he thought was an abandoned den, he came nose-to-snout with a female. York, normally a quiet man, says he “yelled as loud as I ever have in my life.”

Today, these enormous beasts live a precarious existence.

“Here in Hudson Bay, in the western and southern parts, polar bears are spending up to a month longer on shore than their parents or grandparents did,” York says.

As their physical condition declines, he says, their tolerance for risk rises, and “that might bring them into interaction with people (which) can lead to conflict instead of co-existence.”

– Patrolling the town – 

Binoculars in hand, Ian Van Nest, a provincial conservation officer, keeps an eye out through the day on the rocks surrounding Churchill, where the bears like to hide.

In this town of 800 inhabitants, which is only accessible by air and train but not by any roads, the bears have begun frequenting the local dump, a source of easy — but potentially harmful — food for them.

They could be seen ripping open trash bags, eating plastic or getting their snouts trapped in food tins amid piles of burning waste.

Since then, the town has taken precautions: The dump is now guarded by cameras, fences and patrols.

Across Churchill, people leave cars and houses unlocked in case someone needs to find urgent shelter after an unpleasant encounter with this large land-based carnivore. 

Posted on walls around town are the emergency phone numbers to reach Van Nest or his colleagues. 

When they get an urgent call, they hop in their pickup truck armed with a rifle and a spray can of repellent, wearing protective flak jackets. 

Van Nest, who is bearded and in his 30s, takes the job seriously, given the rising number of polar bears in the area.

Sometimes they can be scared off with just “the horn on your vehicle,” he tells AFP. 

But other times “we might have to get on foot and grab our shotguns and cracker shells,” which issue an explosive sound designed to frighten the animal, “and head onto the rocks and pursue that bear.”

Some areas are watched more closely than others — notably around schools as children are arriving in the morning “to ensure that the kids are going to be safe.”

There have been some close calls, like the time in 2013 when a woman was grievously injured by a bear in front of her house, before a neighbor — clad in pajamas and slippers — ran out wielding only his snow shovel to scare the animal away.

Sometimes the animals have to be sedated, then winched up by a helicopter to be transported to the north, or kept in a cage until winter, when they can again feed on the bay.

Churchill’s only “prison” is inhabited entirely by bears, a hangar of 28 cells that can fill up in the autumn as the creatures maraud en masse around town while waiting for the ice to re-form in November. 

– Planet’s air conditioning –

The fate of the polar bear should alarm everyone, says Flavio Lehner, a climate scientist at Cornell University who was part of the expedition, because the Arctic is a good “barometer” of the planet’s health.

Since the 1980s, the ice pack in the bay has decreased by nearly 50 percent in summer, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center.

“We see the more — the faster — changes here, because it is warming particularly fast,” says Lehner, who is Swiss.

The region is essential to the health of the global climate because the Arctic, he says, effectively provides the planet’s “air conditioning.”

“There’s this important feedback mechanism of sea ice and snow in general,” he says, with frozen areas reflecting 80 percent of the sun’s rays, providing a cooling effect.

When the Arctic loses its capacity to reflect those rays, he said, there will be consequences for temperatures around the globe.

Thus, when sea ice melts, the much darker ocean’s surface absorbs 80 percent of the sun’s rays, accelerating the warming trend.

A few years ago, scientists feared that the Arctic’s summer ice pack was rapidly reaching a climatic “tipping point” and, above a certain temperature, would disappear for good.

But more recent studies show the phenomenon could be reversible, Lehner says.

“Should we ever be able to bring temperatures down again, sea ice will come back,” he says.

That said, the impact for now is pervasive. 

“In the Arctic, climate change is impacting all species,” says Jane Waterman, a biologist at the University of Manitoba. “Every single thing is being affected by climate change.”

Permafrost — defined as land that is permanently frozen for two successive years — has begun to melt, and in Churchill the very contours of the land have shifted, damaging rail lines and the habitat of wild species. 

The entire food chain is under threat, with some non-native species, like certain foxes and wolves, appearing for the first time, endangering Arctic species. 

Nothing is safe, says Waterman, from the tiniest bacteria to enormous whales. 

– A summer refuge –

That includes the beluga whales that migrate each summer — by the tens of thousands — from Arctic waters to the refuge of the Hudson Bay. 

These small white whales are often spotted in the bay’s vast blue waters.  

Swimming in small groups, they like to follow the boats of scientists who have come to study them, seemingly taking pleasure in showing off their large round heads and spouting just feet from captivated observers.

The smallest ones, gray in color, cling to their mothers’ backs in this estuary, with its relatively warm waters, where they find protection from killer whales and plentiful nourishment.

But there has been “a shift in prey availability for beluga whales in some areas of the Arctic,” explains Valeria Vergara, an Argentine researcher who has spent her life studying the beluga.

As the ice cover shrinks, “there’s less under the surface of the ice for the phytoplankton that in turn will feed the zooplankton that in turn will feed big fish,” says Vergara, who is with the Raincoast Conservation Foundation.

The beluga has to dive deeper to find food, and that uses up precious energy.

And another danger lurks: Some climate models suggest that as early as 2030, with the ice fast melting, boats will be able to navigate the Hudson Bay year-round.

Sound pollution is a major problem for the species — known as the “canary of the seas” — whose communication depends on the clicking and whistling sounds it makes. 

The beluga depends on sound-based communication to determine its location, find its way and to locate food, Vergara says. 

Thanks to a hydrophone on the “Beluga Boat” that Vergara uses, humans can monitor the “conversations” of whales far below the surface. 

Vergara, 53, describes their communications as “very complex,” and she can distinguish between the cries made by mother whales keeping in contact with their youngsters.

To the untrained ear, the sound is a cacophony, but clearly that of an animated community. Scientists wonder, however, how much longer such communities will last?

Far from the Arctic ice, one lonely beluga became lost in the waters of France’s Seine river before dying in August. And in May, a polar bear meandered its way deep into Canada’s south, shocking those who discovered it along the Saint Lawrence River.

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Flood of forlorn Venezuelans brave jungle crossing in Panama

Wading through knee-deep mud, some limping, hundreds of Venezuelan migrants battle against fatigue with their eye on the prize: hope for a new life in the United States.

With sore feet, injuries and dented spirits several days into their ordeal — still far from halfway — they trudge in single file through the infamous Darien Jungle linking Colombia to Panama.

With a long way still ahead through Central America and Mexico, the group of men, women and children, some babies, already has many horrors to recount.

And it may all have been in vain.

Last week, the United States announced that Venezuelans arriving by land without travel documents will be returned to Mexico.

For Jesus Arias, 45, sometimes one has to “risk one’s life to have a future.”

“But honestly, I would not advise anyone to come through the jungle. It is very hard,” he told AFP as he and others arrived at an Indigenous settlement in Panama, Canaan Membrillo — one of several border control points in the 575,000-hectare (1,420,900-acre) jungle.

Arias arrived at Canaan Membrillo in a T-shirt and shorts, carried by other men in the group after injuring his knee.

– ‘We’re going anyway’ –

He undertook the journey knowing it would be tough because “there is no future in Venezuela. Every day it gets worse.”

He may have no choice but to go back to the crisis-hit country, which is wracked by violence, insecurity and a lack of essential services. The UN Refugee Agency says 6.8 million refugees and migrants have left Venezuela since 2014.

Under the US decree, only 24,000 Venezuelans who apply under a humanitarian program will be granted entry.

“We’re going anyway,” said Arias. “Even if we are stopped, at some point we will enter.”

The number of Venezuelans making the Darien crossing reached a record high in 2022 — some 133,000 between January and mid-October, according to authorities in Panama.

For the whole of last year, the figure was 2,800.

Venezuelan Nelida Pantoja, 46, saw “many dead, many mountains, many rivers that carried off many people… It was horrible,” she told AFP at Canaan Membrillo.

But like most of her fellow migrants, she vowed to “keep trying” until she gets into the United States.

Darwin Vidal, 33, said he was struggling to garner the strength for what lay ahead: battling not only rough terrain but also being at the mercy of poisonous snakes and other wild animals, as well as criminal groups.

“I got lost for three days in the jungle with my family. With my children, we were going too slowly. We couldn’t keep up with the group, we fell behind, and got lost” for a scary while, he said.

Rusbelis Serrano, 18, said she thought the worst was over.

“My mom, my dad, my brothers are waiting for me” in the United States, Serrano told AFP.

“I don’t have much left. I have to keep trying.”

The authorities in Panama say at least 100 people have died crossing the Darien since 2018, about half of them in 2021 — the deadliest year so far.

Welcome no more: Rohingya face backlash in Bangladesh

Rohingya refugee Noor Kamal found a sympathetic welcome in Bangladesh when he fled the soldiers rampaging through his village — but five years later, the hostility he now faces has left him pondering a dangerous return home.

Much has changed in the time since he and 750,000 other members of the stateless Muslim minority escaped neighbouring Myanmar, the survivors of a horrific crackdown now subject to a UN genocide probe.

Back then, thousands of Bangladeshis, outraged by the anti-Muslim violence across the border, trekked from across the country to distribute food and medicine to the shell-shocked arrivals. 

But public attitudes have hardened after years of fruitless efforts to negotiate a safe return for the Rohingya, with media outlets and politicians regularly condemning refugees as drug runners and terror threats.

“There is so much hatred among local people and the press here that I worry it may trigger violence at any time,” Kamal told AFP from his home in Bangladesh’s sprawling border relief camps.

“It’s better we return home even if it means we have to face bullets. If we die, at least we will be buried in our motherland.”

Bangladesh has struggled to support the immense refugee population — while there is financial assistance from the UN refugees body and other humanitarian organisations, Dhaka still faces huge administrative challenges in hosting the camps.

Last year’s military coup in Myanmar has made the prospects of a wholesale return even more remote.

Last month, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said the Rohingya camps had become both a deep burden on her country’s economy and a threat to its political stability. 

“If the problem persists… it may affect the security and stability of the entire region,” she told the UN General Assembly in New York.

– ‘Bringing shame to Bangladesh’ –

Resentment is widespread among Bangladeshis living near the camps, who say the Rohingya have outstayed their welcome.

“They are bringing shame to Bangladesh,” Ayasur Rahman, the spokesman of a local civil society group campaigning against the Rohingya’s presence, told AFP. 

“They should be sent to Myanmar immediately,” he said, accusing refugees of “snatching our jobs (and) stealing our passports”.

Critical commentary on security issues in the camps and their burden on public resources has also become a running feature of local media reportage.

In August, on the fifth anniversary of the crackdown that sparked the Rohingya exodus from Myanmar, a popular online news portal ran an opinion article asking: “How long will Bangladesh be punished for its benevolence?”

Another local media headline likened the presence of the Rohingya to a “cancerous tumour”.

Negative media portrayals of the Rohingya have become so rampant that they caught the attention of former UN rights chief Michelle Bachelet, who toured the country in August as one of her final acts in office. 

“I am very worried about increasing anti-Rohingya rhetoric in Bangladesh, stereotyping and scapegoating Rohingya as the source of crime and other problems,” she said at the time.

– ‘It is very hurtful’ –

Refugees acknowledge that violence and criminal activity exist within the Kutupalong camp network — though it is the Rohingya themselves who are its chief victims.

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an Islamist militant group that has clashed with Myanmar’s army in the past, has sought to entrench its control over the camps — even murdering civil society leaders that could challenge its authority. 

Southern Bangladesh is also a hotspot for the regional methamphetamine trade originating in Myanmar, and Rohingya are often recruited as drug couriers for the influential local kingpins who control distribution networks. 

The trade predates the 2017 Rohingya influx, but refugees say they have been largely blamed for the spread of drugs in Bangladesh, and condemned as criminals regardless of their involvement.

“Out of a million people, there are a handful of bad apples, but that doesn’t justify calling the entire refugee community criminal,” Rohingya refugee Abdul Mannan told AFP.

“It is very hurtful how we are being portrayed.” 

This year, a stuttering economy has saddled Bangladeshis with rising food prices and lengthy nationwide blackouts that have occasionally sparked violent protests. 

Bangladesh also suffered its worst flooding in living memory during the latest monsoon, with millions of homes inundated and numerous villages cut off from the rest of the country. 

The resulting hardships have helped erode the charitable sentiment that once compelled Bangladeshis to flock to the camps and offer help to refugees.

“The compassion that was demonstrated in 2017 and subsequent years has dwindled. It has been replaced with xenophobic rhetoric,” said Ali Riaz, a professor of political science at Illinois State University who has written extensively on the Rohingya crisis.

“Fear and hatred are the key features,” he told AFP. “Unfortunately, these are not in short supply.”

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