World

“Bolsonarismo,” the Brazilian far-right movement built around President Jair Bolsonaro, shares much in common with ultra-conservatives in power in Europe — Hungary, Poland and soon Italy — but is closer to Donald Trump and the US alt-right.

Whether or not Bolsonaro wins his uphill fight for re-election against veteran leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s October 30 runoff, the far-right’s arrival in power in Brazil, as elsewhere, is linked to deep social upheaval, analysts say.

“All these far-right movements are rooted in an economic and social crisis that is growing worse by the year: rising inequality, declining income for the working and middle classes,” says Christophe Ventura, a Latin America specialist at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).

“That has triggered the rise of widespread mistrust.”

The response, he says, has followed a similar pattern internationally: a rejection of “rotten and incompetent” traditional politicians in favor of “virtuous citizens and a more authoritarian government” to right the wrongs unleashed by globalization and free trade — blamed for all ills.

In Europe, Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, Hungary’s Fidesz, Poland’s Law and Justice party, the Sweden Democrats and France’s Rassemblement National and Reconquete all “accuse immigrants of causing every crisis and want to close the borders,” says Geraldo Monteiro, head of the Brazilian Center for Democracy Studies and Research at Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ).

The Brazilian context is different: no longer a major immigration destination, “immigrants aren’t a big subject,” and Islamophobia and anti-Semitism are less prevalent than in Europe, says Monteiro.

Bolsonarismo’s version of “national solidarity” is instead a battle of “good people” versus the “corrupt.”

Internal enemies include the LGBT community, Indigenous peoples, environmental and human-rights activists, the media, academics and the cultural elite — all lumped together with Lula and the “communist” left.

– Strong men –

As with far-right movements everywhere, Bolsonarismo’s Holy Trinity is God, country and family.

The latter, say true believers, is under threat from gay marriage, abortion and “gender ideology.”

Whereas conservative Catholics are the core of the European far-right, in Brazil, it is the powerful, fast-growing Evangelical movement.

Bolsonaro’s movement is also more military in nature than its European cousins, says Monteiro.

He says Brazil “still carries the memory of the military dictatorship” (1964-1985) — fondly, in ex-army captain Bolsonaro’s case — and the president has actively courted military support, naming generals to powerful posts in his administration.

He has also energetically promoted gun ownership, signing a raft of legislation and decrees intended to help “good people” defend themselves and their property — a viewpoint that “doesn’t exist in Europe,” says Ventura.

“The primary reference point” for Bolsonaro’s far-right has been Donald Trump’s United States, he adds, drawing parallels with the American alt-right and Tea Party movements.

It is a brand of populism in which “the leader is the direct representative of the people,” says Mayra Goulart, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro Federal University (UFRJ).

Anything supporters perceive as interfering with that direct democracy — political parties, institutions, the media — comes under attack.

Like the US alt-right, Bolsonaro’s movement has attacked Brazil’s democratic institutions as enemies of the people, notably the Supreme Court and the supposedly fraud-plagued election system.

Many observers fear a Brazilian version of Trump supporters’ attack on the US Capitol if Bolsonaro loses on October 30.

Like Trump — who recently gave him a glowing endorsement — Bolsonaro regularly insults journalists and attacks the “fake news” media.

He prefers to communicate directly with supporters on social media — which is inundated with “alternative truth” and conspiracy theories.

– Hate speech –

Trump’s influence is also visible in Bolsonaro’s climate-change skepticism and resistance to expert advice on handling Covid-19.

The US and Brazilian movements also share a “pro-market, pro-business discourse,” says Goulart.

Free speech is upheld as an absolute right — unfiltered hate speech and disinformation included.

Both Trump and Bolsonaro ran as political outsiders and achieved “unexpected” victories, says Monteiro.

And both “easily draw thousands of supporters into the streets.”

Just a year into her marriage, Manal became one of the tens of thousands of Iraqis every year who divorce in a deeply conservative nation where break-up rates have risen.

For Manal, like many other women, the reason was clear — her husband’s financial dependence on his family’s business meant that “he couldn’t take any decisions of his own”.

The 33-year-old was divorced eight years ago from her ex-husband, who is also her cousin and who worked for his father’s appliance shop.

Not only did he depend on his family for money, but the couple also cohabited with her in-laws.

“He wasn’t financially independent, which caused family problems,” she said.

Her reasoning echoes that of tens of thousands of Iraqis, according to data published by the country’s Supreme Judicial Council.

Iraqi authorities cite wider economic difficulties, early marriages and infidelity encouraged by new technologies as other key drivers of divorce rates. 

More than 73,000 divorces were pronounced in 2021 by the courts in the country of 42 million people, largely the same as the number in 2018.

This is up from an average of just below 51,700 per year over the period 2004 to 2014, a decade that saw one in five marriages end in divorce, according to the council’s website.

– ‘It’s better to divorce’ –

A study published by the Supreme Judicial Council on the causes of divorce cites “living with the spouse’s family, leading in many cases to negative interference in the relationship”, in tandem with “the spouse’s financial dependence on his family”.

It also cites difficulties finding employment and “infidelities due to the internet”.

Premature — often child — marriages are also a driver of divorce. A total of 4,092 adolescent girls were divorced in the two years to the end of 2021.

Veteran feminist Hanaa Edwar also pointed to “financial pressure on families” as a cause.

“This creates a psychological burden and problems,” she said.

And Iraq was not spared the surge in domestic violence that came with the coronavirus pandemic — though Edwar salutes women for increasingly finding the courage to leave.

“There is an awareness among women that if violence persists in their lives and their children’s lives, then it’s better to divorce.”

But in a deeply patriarchal society like Iraq, a divorced man and a divorced woman are not equal.

On top of the often arduous battle to gain custody over their children, women are frequently exposed to “sexual harassment” by men who believe they have the right to make sexual advances towards divorced women, Edwar lamented.

Some families even refuse to allow divorced women to work or go out freely, for fear of the “stigma” and what people will say.

“As for men — socially, everything is acceptable. Today, he divorces, tomorrow he remarries.”

– ‘You should wait’ –

But statistics show that this has left many women undeterred.

“Courts have registered a rise in divorces, particularly over the past decade,” a magistrate was quoted as saying in 2019 on the judicial council’s website.

A social worker who sifts through divorce cases filed in courts so as to try to re-establish common ground between couples likewise acknowledges that “divorce has become much more common”.

Speaking on condition of anonymity at a Baghdad court, she said that “only in 10 percent of cases are we able to find a solution” and abandon the divorce proceedings.

Manal now lives back in her parents’ home and works for a feminist organisation. Her nine-year-old son Adam sees his father from time to time.

Despite the letdown of her first marriage, she has not written off the possibility of remarrying, but says conditions must be met.

A future husband would have to accept her son, for one, but also her professional ambitions.

Her advice to younger generations of women about to embark on their matrimonial journey is simple: “guarantee your economic independence and don’t get married too young.

“You should wait, marriage shouldn’t be the sole ambition in life.”

Russia announced the evacuation of civilians from a key southern Ukrainian city Tuesday as it acknowledged the situation for its troops on the ground in Ukraine was “tense” in the face of a counter-offensive.

Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, scrambled to rebuild damaged energy facilities across the country following a series of deadly Russian strikes and President Volodymyr Zelensky charged that Moscow’s purported use of Iranian-made drones in the attacks highlighted its “military and political bankruptcy”.

Russian General Sergey Surovikin, who has been in charge of recent operations in Ukraine, said the army was preparing to evacuate civilians from the city of Kherson, which is part of the four regions in Ukraine that Moscow recently claimed to have annexed. 

Kherson was the first city to fall to Russian forces after the Kremlin launched its invasion on February 24, but Ukrainian troops have been pushing increasingly closer to the city in recent weeks as part of a successful counter-offensive.

“The Russian army will above all ensure the safe evacuation of the population” of Kherson, Surovikin told state television Rossiya 24, describing the situation as “very difficult” both for civilians and Russian soldiers.

“The enemy is not abandoning its attempts to attack Russian troop positions,” he added.

And Vladimir Saldo, the Kremlin-appointed head of the Kherson region, announced on Telegram “an organized relocation of civilians” from several of the region’s municipalities to the left bank of the Dnipro river.

– ‘Critical’ across country

Ukraine warned of an emerging “critical” risk to its power grid after repeated Russian bombardments had destroyed one third of the country’s power facilities as winter approaches, according to the presidency.

Russian attacks rocked energy facilities in Kyiv and urban centres across Ukraine, causing blackouts and disrupting water supplies. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said three people had been killed in Tuesday’s strikes.

“The situation is critical now across the country. It’s necessary for the whole country to prepare for electricity, water and heating outages,” Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the Ukrainian president’s office, told Ukrainian television.

Drones also bombarded Kyiv on Monday, leaving five dead, officials said, in what the presidency described as an attack of Russian desperation after a string of battlefield losses.

Kyiv and its Western allies have accused Moscow of using Iranian-made drones in the strikes, a move Zelensky portrayed as a sign of Russia’s failure.

“The very fact of Russia’s appeal to Iran for such assistance is the Kremlin’s recognition of its military and political bankruptcy,” Zelensky said in his daily address.

– Hospitals on back-up power –

Many towns and cities in the Zhytomyr region, west of Kyiv, and parts of the city of Dnipro in central Ukraine were without electricity, leaving some hospitals to operate on backup power.

National emergency services said that after 10 days of strikes on energy facilities, over 1,100 towns and villages in nine regions had been left without power and more than 70 people were killed and 290 injured.

Kyiv on Tuesday also accused the Red Cross of “inaction” over its prisoners held by Russia, saying a lack of visits to detained soldiers and civilians meant they were vulnerable to being tortured.

And Ukraine’s state nuclear energy agency charged that Russia had detained two senior employees at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine and the UN nuclear watchdog asked to help secure their release.

Russian forces earlier on Tuesday claimed to have retaken territory from Ukrainian troops in the eastern Kharkiv region. It was Moscow’s first announced capture of a village there since being nearly entirely pushed out of the region last month.

– Kremlin denies Iran drone use –

Tehran said it was ready for talks with Kyiv to clarify “baseless” claims that Iran is providing Russia with weapons and drones for its Ukraine war.

Following the wave of kamikaze drone attacks against Kyiv, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Ukraine should cut diplomatic ties with Iran.

The Kremlin said Tuesday it had no knowledge of its army using Iranian drones in Ukraine.

“Russian tech is being used,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, referring other questions to the defence ministry.

The defence ministry did, however, confirm strikes on energy facilities over the past 24 hours, saying it had used long-range and precision weapons.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow could reduce its diplomatic presence in Western countries, blaming relations with Europe and Washington as well as Russia’s need to build ties elsewhere.

On Tuesday, Russian investigators said initial indications suggest the crash of a military plane into a residential building near Ukraine was due to a technical malfunction.

Russia will likely need two to four years to rebuild its military to the strength before the Ukraine war, Estonia’s defense minister said Tuesday, urging continued pressure to keep Moscow in check.

On a visit to Washington, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur predicted a long war and urged the West to stand with Ukrainians until they achieve victory for “the free world.”

As Russia turns to suspected Iranian kamikaze drones to attack Ukraine, Pevkur said he has heard accounts that Moscow’s arsenal has been so drained that it is using its S-300 air defense system as ordinary missiles and that Russian shells have exploded in the air because they are too old.

“What more or less the consensus is is that it takes two to four years for Russia to restore some capabilities or even the same capabilities they had” before the war, he told a roundtable with State Department and Pentagon correspondents.

He said that Western sanctions had especially hurt production of airplanes and maintenance of helicopters by depriving Russia of key components.

“When we can find new ways on how to impact Russia with the sanctions, for sure we need to do that,” Pevkur said.

Pevkur, who met US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, warned that Russia still had the capacity to conduct attacks, including on NATO members such as Estonia.

However, he played down the possibility of a nuclear strike, an option threatened by Russian President Vladimir Putin as he proclaimed the annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Russia has already “put the fear onto Ukraine” with its conventional attacks, Pevkur said.

“I don’t see any positive, additional added value to Russia” of a nuclear strike, he said.

“The only thing — what can happen is that they would lose their silent supporters like China or some others because of that.”

The Pentagon said in a statement after the meeting that Austin “commended Estonia for its forward-leaning support to Ukraine” and had “reaffirmed the US commitment to deterring Russian aggression against NATO allies.” 

More than a year after Bitcoin became legal tender in El Salvador, a new poll Tuesday showed most people in the country consider the controversial move by President Nayib Bukele as a “failure.”

According to the poll by the University of Central America (UCA), 75.6 percent of respondents said they never used cryptocurrency in 2022, and 77 percent consider its adoption 14 months ago as legal tender, alongside the dollar, “to have been a failure.”

Bitcoin, whose value has tumbled over the past year, “is the government’s most unpopular measure, the most criticized and the most frowned upon,” said UCA rector Andreu Oliva, commenting on the results of the study.

Bukele’s idea was to promote crypto money transfers from some three million Salvadorans living overseas, mainly in the United States, to their relatives back home, thereby saving on bank charges. 

The president’s decision was a strategic one, given that these remittances make up more than a quarter of El Salvador’s gross domestic product. 

But according to data from the Salvadoran Central Bank in early September, a year after the introduction of Bitcoin, “less than two percent” of remittances from emigrants were made using the cryptocurrency.

In September 2021, Bitcoin was hovering around $45,000. By November it soared to $68,000, but after a steep drop it is currently trading below $20,000.

Taking advantage of the plummeting prices, Bukele bought 80 Bitcoin with public funds in July, bringing El Salvador’s total reserves to 2,381 units.

According to the UCA study, 77 percent of Salvadorans believe their president “should not continue to spend public money to buy Bitcoin.” 

The survey also looked into an emergency regime in place since March as part of the “war” on gangs decreed by Bukele, which led to the arrest of 55,000 suspected members of criminal gangs, the dreaded “maras.”

The population still overwhelmingly approves of it, at 75.9 percent, but that figure was down nine points from May, when it was 84.8 percent.