World

Markets endure further losses, dollar rises as central banks turn screws

Asian markets fell again Friday and the dollar extended gains as part of a global sell-off fuelled by recession fears after central banks around the world ramped up interest rates to fight decades-high inflation.

With price rises showing no solid sign of letting up, monetary policymakers have been forced to go on the offensive, warning that short-term hits to economies are less painful than the long-term effects of not acting.

The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to lift borrowing costs 75 basis points for a third successive meeting was followed by a warning that more were in the pipeline and they would not likely come down until 2024.

That came along with similar moves by banks in several other countries including Britain, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, the Philippines and Indonesia — all pointing to a dark outlook for equities.

“We see this new even-higher-for-longer rate path as associated with a substantially higher likelihood of a hard landing, and so not just unambiguously hawkish but unambiguously bad for risk,” Krishna Guha, vice-chair of Evercore ISI, said.

In a sign that recession expectations are rising, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 3.7 percent, its highest level in a decade, while the S&P 500 sank to its weakest level since June and just above its 2022 lows.

There were also losses on the Nasdaq and Dow, while London, Paris and Frankfurt shed more than one percent apiece.

Asia followed suit.

Hong Kong dropped, even as the city’s government lifted long-running hotel quarantine rules for incoming travellers as officials look to kickstart the battered economy. 

Shanghai, Sydney, Mumbai, Bangkok, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei and Manila also retreated.

London, Paris and Frankfurt all fell in the morning.

The dollar, which has surged to multi-decade highs against its major peers as well as emerging currencies, held its strength.

Traders are keeping a close eye on developments following the Japanese finance ministry’s intervention to support the yen, after it hit a new 24-year low of 146 against the dollar.

The first such intervention since 1998, it helped strengthen the yen to just above 140.

But analysts warned the move was unlikely to have much long-term impact and the yen remained vulnerable owing to the Bank of Japan’s refusal to tighten policy — citing a need to boost the economy — as the Fed ramps up rates.

“Given the now even starker contrast between the (central bank’s) policy stance and central banks everywhere else in the world… (the) MoF will need to be in this intervention game for the long haul and in size if it is to have much hope of arresting yen weakness in an ongoing strong dollar environment,” said National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill.

The pound also fell to a new 37-year low of $1.1170, even after the Bank of England hiked interest rates by half a point.

Oil markets remain subdued by concerns about a hit to demand caused by the expected recession.

Both main contracts dipped even as speculation swirled that OPEC and other major producers could cut output as they fear prices are falling too fast.

The commodity has fallen about a third from highs seen soon after Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, and is even below levels seen before the conflict.

“This is going to be a very, very volatile last quarter,” said Amrita Sen, of Energy Aspects, on Bloomberg Television. She added that there were “just too many different and contradictory factors driving prices right now”.

– Key figures at around 0810 GMT –

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.2 percent at 17,933.27 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.7 percent at 3,088.77 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 7,130.11

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 142.27 yen from 142.35 yen Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.1178 from $1.1252

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $0.9777 from $0.9839

Euro/pound: UP at 87.43 pence from 87.40 pence 

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.6 percent at $82.19 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 1.5 percent at $89.13 per barrel

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.4 percent at 30,076.68 (close)

— Bloomberg News contributed to this story —

Asian coastal cities sinking fast: study

Sprawling coastal cities in South and Southeast Asia are sinking faster than elsewhere in the world, leaving tens of millions of people more vulnerable to rising sea levels, a new study says.

Rapid urbanisation has seen these cities draw heavily on groundwater to service their burgeoning populations, according to research by Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University (NTU), published in the journal Nature Sustainability last week. 

“This puts cities experiencing rapid local land subsidence at greater risk of coastal hazards than already present due to climate-driven sea-level rise,” the study says.

Vietnam’s most-populous urban centre and main business hub, Ho Chi Minh City, was sinking an average of 16.2 millimetres (0.6 inches) annually, topping the study’s survey of satellite data from 48 large coastal cities around the world. 

The southern Bangladeshi port of Chittagong was second on the list, with the western Indian city Ahmedabad, Indonesian capital Jakarta and Myanmar’s commercial hub Yangon also sinking more than 20 millimetres in peak years. 

“Many of these fast-subsiding coastal cities are rapidly expanding megacities, where… high demands for groundwater extraction and loading from densely constructed building structures, contribute to local land subsidence,” the study says.

Sinking cities are not of themselves a result of climate change, but researchers said their work would give a better insight into how the phenomenon would “compound the effects of climate-driven mean sea-level rise”.

More than one billion people will live in coastal cities at risk of rising sea levels by 2050, according to UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 

The IPCC says that global sea levels could rise by up to 60 centimetres (24 inches) by the end of the century even if greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced.

Asian coastal cities sinking fast: study

Sprawling coastal cities in South and Southeast Asia are sinking faster than elsewhere in the world, leaving tens of millions of people more vulnerable to rising sea levels, a new study says.

Rapid urbanisation has seen these cities draw heavily on groundwater to service their burgeoning populations, according to research by Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University (NTU), published in the journal Nature Sustainability last week. 

“This puts cities experiencing rapid local land subsidence at greater risk of coastal hazards than already present due to climate-driven sea-level rise,” the study says.

Vietnam’s most-populous urban centre and main business hub, Ho Chi Minh City, was sinking an average of 16.2 millimetres (0.6 inches) annually, topping the study’s survey of satellite data from 48 large coastal cities around the world. 

The southern Bangladeshi port of Chittagong was second on the list, with the western Indian city Ahmedabad, Indonesian capital Jakarta and Myanmar’s commercial hub Yangon also sinking more than 20 millimetres in peak years. 

“Many of these fast-subsiding coastal cities are rapidly expanding megacities, where… high demands for groundwater extraction and loading from densely constructed building structures, contribute to local land subsidence,” the study says.

Sinking cities are not of themselves a result of climate change, but researchers said their work would give a better insight into how the phenomenon would “compound the effects of climate-driven mean sea-level rise”.

More than one billion people will live in coastal cities at risk of rising sea levels by 2050, according to UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 

The IPCC says that global sea levels could rise by up to 60 centimetres (24 inches) by the end of the century even if greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced.

Lachlan Murdoch faces off with Crikey in defamation row

A high-stakes defamation battle between News Corp co-chairman Lachlan Murdoch and small Australian news outlet Crikey will go to trial beginning March 27 in Sydney.

Rupert Murdoch’s eldest son — who is also chief executive of Fox News parent Fox Corporation — is suing Crikey over an opinion piece that linked his family’s media empire to the January 6, 2021 storming of the US Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump.

The media scion’s lawyers claimed their client was defamed over a dozen times in the article, which accused “the Murdochs and their slew of poisonous Fox News commentators” of being “unindicted co-conspirators” in the Capitol riot.

On Friday, Murdoch’s barrister — top defamation litigator Sue Chrysanthou — pushed in the preliminary hearing for the earliest possible trial date, arguing Crikey had been “directing ridicule and hatred” towards her client.

Crikey was “publicly claiming martyrdom”, she told the largely administrative case management hearing, pointing to the outlet running billboard advertisements about the case and fundraising online for its defence.

In the past month, Crikey’s GoFundMe campaign has raised nearly A$500,000 (US$333,000) and garnered support from two former Australian Prime Ministers, Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull.

“Lachlan Murdoch owns boats that are worth more than Crikey,” Turnbull commented alongside his Aus$5,000 (US$3,400) donation.

– A very public fight –

The legal scuffle over the opinion piece burst into international headlines last month, when Crikey ran an advertisement in The New York Times daring Murdoch to sue.

The often pugilistic website said it welcomed the opportunity to “test this important issue of freedom of public interest journalism in a courtroom”.

Murdoch filed his lawsuit the next day.

The tussle pits an upstart website, with subscriber numbers in the low tens of thousands, against one of the world’s largest media empires.

Defamation expert David Rolph from the University of Sydney told AFP Murdoch’s case could be the first test of recent attempts to reform Australia’s notoriously tough defamation laws.

Australia has gained a reputation as “the defamation capital of the world” after a slew of lawsuits launched by high-profile figures, including actors and politicians.

Crikey’s defence, filed with the Federal Court Tuesday, denied it defamed Murdoch and flagged it would lean on two new defences created by the reforms.

“One is a serious harm threshold… the plaintiff now has to prove that they not only suffered some harm to reputation, but that it was serious harm to reputation,” Rolph explained.

Crikey will also seek to argue that the opinion piece, by writer Bernard Keane, was in the public interest.

“I suppose the difficulty here is that defence is entirely untested. This will be a test case of that,” Rolph said.

– Public interest fight –

In a statement issued Thursday, Crikey chief executive Will Hayward said his company was fighting the case because “there is an issue of fundamental public importance at stake”.

“We think it is important in an open, well-functioning society that the rich and powerful can be critiqued.”

While Murdoch has stayed quiet since launching the case, his statement of claim accused Crikey of using the legal saga to drive subscriptions.

He has asked the court to permanently ban Crikey from publishing anything suggesting he “illegally conspired with Donald Trump” around the events of January 6.

The case will be heard by Justice Wigney, who has overseen several closely-watched defamation trials — including actor Geoffrey Rush’s successful suit against another Australian media outlet.

Wigney said Friday that before the trial begins, he would seek to have the parties enter mediation where “cool commercial minds may prevail”.

Chinese former senior security official faces life in prison for bribery

A Chinese former top security official faces life in prison after a court on Friday hit him with a suspended death sentence for bribery and other crimes, adding to a flurry of corruption verdicts in recent days.

Sun Lijun’s death sentence will be commuted to life imprisonment after two years, according to a statement by the Intermediate People’s Court in the city of Changchun.

Chinese authorities have announced a spate of high-profile sentences this week, as an anti-graft campaign kicks into high gear ahead of a political meeting next month where President Xi Jinping is expected to secure an unprecedented third term.

More than a million officials have been punished under the campaign, which critics argue is also a vehicle for Xi to oust political enemies.

The court said Sun, who previously served as vice-minister of public security, had abused his power in a number of influential positions between 2001 and 2020.

The 53-year-old pleaded guilty in July to accepting more than 646 million yuan ($91 million) in bribes.

His other offences included manipulating the securities market and illegally owning firearms, the court statement said.

“(He is) deprived of political rights for life and all personal property should be confiscated,” it said.

“Sun Lijun took a particularly large amount in bribes (to) seek work promotions and adjustments for many people,” the statement continued.

Sun previously served as the head of security affairs for Hong Kong when the semi-autonomous city was convulsed by pro-democracy protests.

– Corruption crackdown –

Since coming to power a decade ago, Xi has waged a campaign against corruption in the ruling Communist Party, vowing to clamp down hard on high-profile “tiger” officials as well as more lowly “flies”.

And with the twice-a-decade party congress looming in mid-October, Xi has ramped up the pace with several big names falling under the campaign’s wheels this week alone.

China’s opaque courts answer to the Communist Party and have a near-100 percent criminal conviction rate.

On Thursday, former justice minister Fu Zhenghua received a life sentence for taking bribes worth more than 117 million yuan.

Before entering semi-retirement in May 2020, Fu is thought to have orchestrated the corruption investigation into former security chief Zhou Yongkang, who was jailed in 2015 in arguably the campaign’s highest-profile case to date.

Three former police chiefs were also given severe sentences for corruption on Wednesday, accused of being part of Sun’s “political clique”.

They included Gong Dao’an, former police chief of Shanghai; Deng Huilin, former police chief of Chongqing; and Liu Xinyun, former police chief of coal-rich Shanxi province.

Gong, former deputy mayor and director of the Shanghai Public Security Bureau, was given a life sentence for accepting bribes worth 73.43 million yuan, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

Deng, the former director of the Chongqing Public Security Bureau, was jailed for 15 years for taking 42.67 million yuan in bribes, according to the same outlet.

Liu, the former top cop in Shanxi, was imprisoned for 14 years for taking bribes worth 13.33 million, CCTV said.

Australian rescuers race to save stranded pilot whales

Australian rescuers battled Friday to refloat the last surviving pilot whales from a mass stranding that killed nearly 200 of the animals on a beach in Tasmania.

Fewer than 10 of the shiny black mammals were still alive on Ocean Beach, in remote western Tasmania, state wildlife services said.

About 30 of the animals were released into the ocean on Thursday, but some had beached themselves again, said Brendon Clark, incident controller with the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service.

Under drizzle, marine wildlife experts began wrapping up a days-long rescue operation that started after a large pod of the animals, which are part of the dolphin family, stranded on the beach.

Three pilot whales had yet to be reached because of their remote location on the shore and the difficult tidal conditions, Clark told reporters at the scene.

“The priority still is the rescue and release of those remaining animals and any others that we identify that re-strand,” he said.

Next, Clark said, comes the task of disposing of the carcases.

Wildlife workers used a fork-lift truck to drag whale carcasses along the beach, lining them up with tails pointed to the frigid ocean. 

– Carcasses –

One small, young calf could be seen tied up alongside the larger adult pilot whales.

A long white line was looped around the tails of dozens of the animals to allow them to be towed en masse to disposal at sea.

Weather forecasts indicated the “best opportunity” for the operation would be on Sunday, Clark said.

If left in shallow waters or on the beach, the carcasses could attract sharks and can carry disease. 

Workers at Tasmanian marine farming company Petuna Aquaculture helped to release surviving whales into the sea.

“It’s extremely sad to see these beautiful, intelligent animals on land where they are not to be,” Depha Miedecke, general manager of strategy at Petuna, told AFP.

“We will see it right through to the end to also removing, unfortunately, the whales that have not made it.”

– Distress signals –

Two years ago, Macquarie Harbour was the scene of the country’s largest-ever mass stranding, involving almost 500 pilot whales.

More than 300 pilot whales died during that event, despite the efforts of dozens of volunteers who toiled for days in Tasmania’s freezing waters to free them.

Scientists still do not fully understand why mass strandings occur.  

Some have suggested pods go off track after feeding too close to shore.

Pilot whales — which can grow to more than six metres (20 feet) long — are also highly sociable, so they may follow pod-mates who stray into danger.

That sometimes occurs when old, sick or injured animals swim ashore and other pod members follow, trying to respond to the trapped whale’s distress signals.

Others believe gently sloping beaches like those found in Tasmania confuse the whales’ sonar, making them think they are in open waters.

The latest stranding came days after a dozen young male sperm whales were reported dead in a separate mass stranding on King Island — between Tasmania and the Australian mainland.

State officials said that incident may have been a case of “misadventure”.

Strandings are also common in nearby New Zealand.

There, around 300 animals beach themselves annually, according to official figures, and it is not unusual for groups of between 20 and 50 pilot whales to run aground.

But numbers can run into the hundreds when a “super pod” is involved. In 2017, there was a mass stranding of almost 700 pilot whales.

Australian rescuers race to save stranded pilot whales

Australian rescuers battled Friday to refloat the last surviving pilot whales from a mass stranding that killed nearly 200 of the animals on a beach in Tasmania.

Fewer than 10 of the shiny black mammals were still alive on Ocean Beach, in remote western Tasmania, state wildlife services said.

About 30 of the animals were released into the ocean on Thursday, but some had beached themselves again, said Brendon Clark, incident controller with the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service.

Under drizzle, marine wildlife experts began wrapping up a days-long rescue operation that started after a large pod of the animals, which are part of the dolphin family, stranded on the beach.

Three pilot whales had yet to be reached because of their remote location on the shore and the difficult tidal conditions, Clark told reporters at the scene.

“The priority still is the rescue and release of those remaining animals and any others that we identify that re-strand,” he said.

Next, Clark said, comes the task of disposing of the carcases.

Wildlife workers used a fork-lift truck to drag whale carcasses along the beach, lining them up with tails pointed to the frigid ocean. 

– Carcasses –

One small, young calf could be seen tied up alongside the larger adult pilot whales.

A long white line was looped around the tails of dozens of the animals to allow them to be towed en masse to disposal at sea.

Weather forecasts indicated the “best opportunity” for the operation would be on Sunday, Clark said.

If left in shallow waters or on the beach, the carcasses could attract sharks and can carry disease. 

Workers at Tasmanian marine farming company Petuna Aquaculture helped to release surviving whales into the sea.

“It’s extremely sad to see these beautiful, intelligent animals on land where they are not to be,” Depha Miedecke, general manager of strategy at Petuna, told AFP.

“We will see it right through to the end to also removing, unfortunately, the whales that have not made it.”

– Distress signals –

Two years ago, Macquarie Harbour was the scene of the country’s largest-ever mass stranding, involving almost 500 pilot whales.

More than 300 pilot whales died during that event, despite the efforts of dozens of volunteers who toiled for days in Tasmania’s freezing waters to free them.

Scientists still do not fully understand why mass strandings occur.  

Some have suggested pods go off track after feeding too close to shore.

Pilot whales — which can grow to more than six metres (20 feet) long — are also highly sociable, so they may follow pod-mates who stray into danger.

That sometimes occurs when old, sick or injured animals swim ashore and other pod members follow, trying to respond to the trapped whale’s distress signals.

Others believe gently sloping beaches like those found in Tasmania confuse the whales’ sonar, making them think they are in open waters.

The latest stranding came days after a dozen young male sperm whales were reported dead in a separate mass stranding on King Island — between Tasmania and the Australian mainland.

State officials said that incident may have been a case of “misadventure”.

Strandings are also common in nearby New Zealand.

There, around 300 animals beach themselves annually, according to official figures, and it is not unusual for groups of between 20 and 50 pilot whales to run aground.

But numbers can run into the hundreds when a “super pod” is involved. In 2017, there was a mass stranding of almost 700 pilot whales.

After asteroid collision, Europe's Hera will probe 'crime scene'

After NASA deliberately smashes a car-sized spacecraft into an asteroid next week, it will be up to the European Space Agency’s Hera mission to investigate the “crime scene” and uncover the secrets of these potentially devastating space rocks.

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) aims to collide with the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos on Monday night, hoping to slightly alter its trajectory — the first time such an operation has been attempted.

While Dimorphos is 11 million kilometres (6.8 million miles) away and poses no threat to Earth, the mission is a test run in case the world someday needs to deflect an asteroid from heading our way.

Astronomers around the world will watch DART’s impact, and its effect will be closely followed to see if the mission passed the test.

Then, the European Space Agency’s Hera mission, named after the ancient Greek queen of the gods, will follow in its footsteps. 

The Hera spacecraft is planned to launch in October 2024, aiming to arrive at Dimorphos in 2026 to measure the exact impact DART had on the asteroid.

But scientists are not only excited to see DART’s crater, but also to explore an object that is very much out of this world.

– ‘A new world’ –

Dimorphos, which orbits a larger asteroid Didymos as they hurtle together through space, provides not only a “perfect testing opportunity for a planetary defence experiment, but it is also a completely new environment,” the ESA’s Hera mission manager Ian Carnelli said.

Hera will be loaded up with cameras, spectrometers, radars and even toaster-sized nano-satellites to measure the asteroid’s shape, mass, chemical composition and more. 

NASA’s Bhavya Lal said that it was critically important to understand the size and composition of such asteroids.

“If an asteroid is made up of, for example, loose gravel, approaches to disrupt it may be different than if it was metal or some other kind of rock,” she told the International Astronautical Congress in Paris this week.

So little is known about Dimorphos that scientists will discover “a new world” at the same time as the public on Monday, Hera mission principal investigator Patrick Michel said.

“Asteroids are not boring space rocks — they are super exciting because they have a great diversity” in size, shape and composition, Michel said.

And because they have low gravity compared to Earth, matter there could behave completely differently than expected.

“Unless you touch the surface, you cannot know the mechanical response,” he said.

– ‘Behaved almost like fluid’ – 

For example, when a Japanese probe dropped a small explosive near the surface of the Ryugu asteroid in 2019, it was expected to make a crater of two or three metres. Instead, it blasted a 50-metre hole.

“There was no resistance,” Michel said. 

“The surface behaved almost like a fluid,” rather than solid rock, he added. “How weird is that?” 

One way the Hera mission will test Dimorphos will be to land a nano-satellite on its surface, in part to see how much it bounces.

Binary systems like Dimorphos and Didymos represent around 15 percent of known asteroids, but have not yet been explored.

With a diameter of just 160 metres — around the size of the Great Pyramid of Giza — Dimorphos will also be the smallest asteroid ever studied.

Learning about the impact of DART is not only important for planetary defence, Michel said, but also for understanding the history of our Solar System, where most cosmic bodies were formed through collisions and are now riddled with craters.

That’s where DART and Hera could shine a light not just on the future, but on the past.

Fears for rights under Italy's 'Christian mother' Meloni

From abortion to gay marriage, civil rights activists in Catholic-majority Italy fear a significant set-back with the expected election triumph of a far-right party dedicated to defending “traditional family values”.

Giorgia Meloni, a 45-year-old who has campaigned under the slogan of “God, country and family” and against “woke ideology”, is likely to become Italy’s first female prime minister if her post-fascist Brothers of Italy party wins the general election on Sunday.

“Yes to natural families, no to the LGBT lobby! Yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology! Yes to the culture of life, no to the abyss of death!” a wild-eyed Meloni cried in a speech in June.

“Christian mother” Meloni has since blamed the febrile tirade, made during a rally of the Spanish far-right Vox party, on tiredness — although she said she would “change the tone, not the content”.

A series of left-leaning celebrities, including Instagram star Chiara Ferragni, have sounded the alarm over Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party and its allies, Matteo Salvini’s anti-immigrant League and Silvio Berlusconi’s right-wing Forza Italia.

Pierpaolo Piccioli, creative director at fashion house Valentino, was on Thursday the latest to urge voters to defend rights won in the shadow of the Vatican.

“It’s not enough to call for new rights. We have to fight to make sure we keep those we have”, he told the Repubblica daily, adding that he wanted his children to “live in an Italy without fear”.

– Peppa Pig –

The attack by a senior Brothers of Italy member earlier this month on co-parenting lesbian polar bears in the Peppa Pig cartoon — a storyline he slammed as “gender indoctrination” — prompted both ridicule and unease.

Civil partners Alessia and Eleonora, mothers to a one-year-old boy in Rome, told AFP how painful it was to not be seen as equal.

“We do the same things as all parents… (but) we aren’t recognised as a family in Italy,” said Alessia, who declined to give her surname.

The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) says gay marriage and same-sex adoption are priorities, with leader Enrico Letta telling Meloni recently that the most important thing for children was “to be loved”.

They need “a father and a mother”, retorted Meloni.

The left also wants citizenship rights for children born in Italy of migrant parents — a hotly contested issue.

– Abortion rights –

Brothers of Italy has roots in a neo-fascist movement formed to carry on the legacy of dictator Benito Mussolini.

Some of the old guard remain, but Meloni is attempting to construe herself instead as a “nationalist conservative”, said Mabel Berezin, an expert on fascist, nationalist and populist movements.

Fears that a Meloni-led government would ape violations of fundamental principles seen in Hungary or Poland were probably “overblown”, the sociologist at Cornell University told AFP.

The risks may be subtler than that, according to Emma Bonino, who leads the +Europe party.

Abortion became the most divisive campaign issue after Meloni said she wanted to give a choice to women unsure about terminating pregnancies.

“We won’t touch the abortion law. We just want (women) to know there are other options,” she said.

Meloni is likely to keep her word on not criminalising abortion, said Bonino, who did time in jail in the 1970s for her fight to legalise it.

But she fears Meloni will instead “push for the law to be ignored”, exacerbating an existing problem — difficulties in getting hold of abortion pills or finding gynaecologists willing to perform terminations.

“There are entire regions where… the gynaecologists are all conscientious objectors” who can opt out of performing the operation, Bonino said — referring in particular to the Marche region in central Italy, which is governed by Brothers of Italy.

– Valuing women –

Meloni’s supporters see her as a symbol of female empowerment — an unmarried, working parent, who is about to break the political glass ceiling.

Laura Boldrini, one of Italy’s most high-profile female politicians, said she did not think Meloni in charge “would mean women’s lives improve”.

“Meloni has never been about affirming women’s rights, about valuing women or breaking down prejudices against them,” she said this week.

Michela Murgia, a writer and political activist, said Meloni was a “violent creature… who has learned to speak in a reassuring way” so that “positions previously considered extremist now appear good sense”.

Italy would do well, she said, to remember the Meloni at the Vox rally, “who seems possessed” and would “bring the same violence to her political rule”.

Financial markets, Brussels wary of Italy far-right win

From her euroscepticism to her impact on Italy’s enormous debt, the likely victory of far-right leader Giorgia Meloni in elections Sunday is causing concern in financial markets and in Brussels.

The Brothers of Italy leader has abandoned her calls for the country to leave the EU’s single currency and the joint programme with her right-wing allies — the anti-immigration League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia — commits them to the European project.

But concerns persist, particularly after she reiterated her support this week for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in his battles with Brussels.

At an election rally in mid-September in Milan, Meloni declared that “the good times are over” and that Italy, like others, “is going to start defending its own national interests” in the EU.

“I don’t know any nationalists who are not against European institutions,” Frans Timmermans, vice-president of the European Commission, noted in an interview with La Repubblica newspaper earlier this month.

– EU recovery plan – 

Well placed to become the next prime minister, Meloni wants a “confederate Europe” which “respects the sovereignty of member states” to manage their own affairs.

She has called for a renegotiation of the Italian part of the EU’s mammoth post-pandemic recovery plan, from which Italy stands to receive almost 200 billion euros, to account for the spike in energy prices linked to the Ukraine war.

But the money is dependent on a series of reforms, which outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi began but must still be implemented.

“We could end up with a serious clash of ideas between Italy, which is by far the biggest beneficiary of the recovery plan, and the EU,” noted Nicola Nobile of Oxford Economics, a consultancy.

“There are many risks, but it will all depend on which Meloni leads the government — the one who has attacked Europe in the past or the one who now advocates a more moderate approach and could pursue the status quo on fiscal matters,” she told AFP.

– Spiralling debt –

Concerns about a slip in the reform timetable and an increase in Italy’s debt after the elections have already caused rating agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s to downgrade the outlook for the country’s credit rating. 

Italy is saddled with a debt of more than 2.7 trillion euros, or some 150 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the highest ratio in the eurozone after Greece.

Meloni’s right-wing coalition is calling for a revision of the EU’s rules against overspending, which were suspended during the pandemic but set a ceiling of three percent of GDP for the deficit and 60 percent for debt.

While some flexibility might be allowed, “it would be political suicide to say, ‘we don’t care about all the rules’,” noted Peter Bofinger, professor of economy at the University of Wuerzburg. 

“If Italy deviates from the European consensus” and does not maintain a minimum of budgetary discipline, “not even the European Central Bank will be able to help it”, he told AFP.

– Costly election promises –

The right-wing coalition has promised to cut taxes while increasing spending, including raising the minimum pension — plans that risk being hugely expensive.

“Their programme is very vague and does not explain how to finance these measures,” said Nobile.

“If they were implemented, Italy’s public deficit would remain above six percent of GDP for five years from 2023,” pushing the already high public debt to “unsustainable levels”.

The coalition’s flagship measure, a so-called flat tax that the League wants to set at 15 percent and Berlusconi 23 percent, could cost between 20 billion and 58 billion euros, according to Italy’s public accounts observatory.

Investors fear the government could end up like its predecessors — Berlusconi’s resigned in 2011, under pressure from the markets and a surge in the cost of debt.

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